Description: The data file contains projections for area and mass change of glaciers on the global scale, from 11 different glacier models, forced by 10 different climate models, under 4 different scenarios. The values are specified by regions, following the region definition of the Randolph Glacier Inventory (https://www.glims.org/RGI/). Values are given annually for the years 2000 to 2100. The data were produced in the second experiment of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project, based on standardized boundary and initial conditions (http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/mips/glaciermip/activities-experiments).

Description: A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of recordings at several intensively operated research sites in the Rofental (1891 - 3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets are spanning a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique, worldwide unprecedented pool of high mountain observations. Their collection has originally been initiated to support the scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereis-, Kesselwand- and Vernagtferner. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables have been undertaken; data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation and water levels. For the glaciers, annual mass balance, glacier front variation and flow velocities as well as photographic images of the glacier status have been recorded. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laserscans has been processed. Most recently, a permanent terrestrial laser scanner installed on 'Im hintern Eis' (3244 m a.s.l.) enables to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation enable combined research of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the art hydroclimatological and glacier mass balance models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework have joined to a cooperation consortium and promote their site in several international research initiatives. In the framework of INARCH, all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution License by means of the PANGAEA repository.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.