Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013)

Description: The risk and environmental impact assessments required for geological CO2 storage projects will have to rely on different types of numerical models, which will have to be calibrated and validated against measurements. Available measurements from ongoing demonstration projects are limited, hence it is necessary to turn to analog processes or laboratory experiments to estimate model parameters. In any case, parameter estimates will have uncertainties that will be important to assess when predicting future scenarios. We study a model for the rise velocity of droplets in the ocean, an important process sub-model for simulating gas seeps into marine waters. As the origin we use the parameters estimation study by Bigalke et al. (2010) based on a tank experiment. We illustrate how Linearized Covariance Analysis (LCA) can be used to assess the parameter uncertainties, and how to design a similar experiment that reduces these uncertainties. The linearity assumption underlying LCA is assessed using curvature measures. It is shown that up to ∼63% reduction in uncertainties is achieved by choosing the right droplet size distribution; by extending the range of droplet sizes to include larger droplets the uncertainties are reduced by another ∼88%.

Description: This paper assesses how parameter uncertainties in the model for rise velocity of CO2 droplets in the ocean cause uncertainties in their rise and dissolution in marine waters. The parameter uncertainties in the rise velocity for both hydrate coated and hydrate free droplets are estimated from experiment data. Thereafter the rise velocity is coupled with a mass transfer model to simulate the fate of dissolution of a single droplet. The assessment shows that parameter uncertainties are highest for large droplets. However, it is also shown that in some circumstances varying the temperature gives significant change in rise distance of droplets.

Description: Eight time slices of surface-water paleoceanography were reconstructed from stable isotope and paleotemperature data to evaluate late Quaternary changes in density, current directions, and sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas and NE Atlantic. We used isotopic records from 110 deep-sea cores, 20 of which are accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)-14C dated and 30 of which have high (〉8 cm /kyr) sedimentation rates, enabling a resolution of about 120 years. Paleotemperature estimates are based on species counts of planktonic foraminifera in 18 cores. The δ18O and δ13C distributions depict three main modes of surface circulation: (1) The Holocene-style interglacial mode which largely persisted over the last 12.8 14C ka, and probably during large parts of stage 3. (2) The peak glacial mode showing a cyclonic gyre in the, at least, seasonally ice-free Nordic Seas and a meltwater lens west of Ireland. Based on geostrophic forcing, it possibly turned clockwise, blocked the S-N flow across the eastern Iceland-Shetland ridge, and enhanced the Irminger current around west Iceland. It remains unclear whether surface-water density was sufficient for deepwater formation west of Norway. (3) A meltwater regime culminating during early glacial Termination I, when a great meltwater lens off northern Norway probably induced a clockwise circulation reaching south up to Faeroe, the northward inflow of Irminger Current water dominated the Icelandic Sea, and deepwater convection was stopped. In contrast to circulation modes two and three, the Holocene-style circulation mode appears most stable, even unaffected by major meltwater pools originating from the Scandinavian ice sheet, such as during δ18O event 3.1 and the Bölling. Meltwater phases markedly influenced the European continental climate by suppressing the “heat pump” of the Atlantic salinity conveyor belt. During the peak glacial, melting icebergs blocked the eastward advection of warm surface water toward Great Britain, thus accelerating buildup of the great European ice sheets; in the early deglacial, meltwater probably induced a southward flow of cold water along Norway, which led to the Oldest Dryas cold spell.

Description: Highlights • A way to design a grid of sensor along the seafloor, with the purpose of detecting a leak, is presented. • The method relies site characterization, on local environmental statistics and on a detection threshold. • The method quantifies the probability of detecting a leak, and through an optimization procedure finds the optimal layout. • The cost function can be extended to include other constraints, such as cost or need to cover vulnerable areas. Abstract Monitoring of the marine environment for indications of a leak, or precursors of a leak, will be an intrinsic part of any subsea CO2 storage projects. A real challenge will be quantification of the probability of a given monitoring program to detect a leak and to design the program accordingly. The task complicates by the number of pathways to the surface, difficulties to estimate probabilities of leaks and fluxes, and predicting the fluctuating footprint of a leak. The objective is to present a procedure for optimizing the layout of a fixed array of chemical sensors on the seafloor, using the probability of detecting a leak as metric. A synthetic map from the North Sea is used as a basis for probable leakage points, while the spatial footprint is based on results from a General Circulation Model. Compared to an equally spaced array the probability of detecting a leak can be nearly doubled by an optimal placement of the available sensors. It is not necessarily best to place the first in the location of the highest probable leakage point, one sensor can monitor several potential leakage points. The need for a thorough baseline in order to reduce the detection threshold is shown.

Description: Eight time slices of surface-water paleoceanography were reconstructed from stable isotope and paleotemperature data to evaluate late Quaternary changes in density, current directions, and sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas and NE Atlantic. We used isotopic records from 110 deep-sea cores, 20 of which are accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)-14C dated and 30 of which have high (〉8 cm /kyr) sedimentation rates, enabling a resolution of about 120 years. Paleotemperature estimates are based on species counts of planktonic foraminifera in 18 cores. The δ18O and δ13C distributions depict three main modes of surface circulation: (1) The Holocene-style interglacial mode which largely persisted over the last 12.8 14C ka, and probably during large parts of stage 3. (2) The peak glacial mode showing a cyclonic gyre in the, at least, seasonally ice-free Nordic Seas and a meltwater lens west of Ireland. Based on geostrophic forcing, it possibly turned clockwise, blocked the S-N flow across the eastern Iceland-Shetland ridge, and enhanced the Irminger current around west Iceland. It remains unclear whether surface-water density was sufficient for deepwater formation west of Norway. (3) A meltwater regime culminating during early glacial Termination I, when a great meltwater lens off northern Norway probably induced a clockwise circulation reaching south up to Faeroe, the northward inflow of Irminger Current water dominated the Icelandic Sea, and deepwater convection was stopped. In contrast to circulation modes two and three, the Holocene-style circulation mode appears most stable, even unaffected by major meltwater pools originating from the Scandinavian ice sheet, such as during δ18O event 3.1 and the Bölling. Meltwater phases markedly influenced the European continental climate by suppressing the “heat pump” of the Atlantic salinity conveyor belt. During the peak glacial, melting icebergs blocked the eastward advection of warm surface water toward Great Britain, thus accelerating buildup of the great European ice sheets; in the early deglacial, meltwater probably induced a southward flow of cold water along Norway, which led to the Oldest Dryas cold spell.

Description: The effect of submarine carbon dioxide (CO2) vents on seawater carbonate chemistry have been determined using hydrographical and marine carbonate data obtained from two submarine hydrothermal vent fields, as well as a reference station, all near the Jan Mayen Island in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. We have shown that one can successfully determine the excess carbon that enters the seawater from the vents by applying a modified version of a back-calculation technique, which is traditionally used to study the invasion of excess atmospheric CO2 in the surface ocean. As a result of this excess carbon, total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) in the seawater surrounding the vents was on average 12 μmol kg−1 (1-30 μmol kg−1) higher compared to samples obtained from a reference station outside the venting areas. The observed excess CT was most significant between 100 m and 200 m but was noticeable in all depths with the exception of the upper 10-20 m. The absence of a venting CO2 signal in the surface water and the realism of the results are discussed. We believe the present method is promising for monitoring (detection and quantification) of CO2 leakage into the water column due to its high sensitivity and readiness for automation.

Description: Understanding and quantifying ocean–atmosphere exchanges of the long-lived greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are important for understanding the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen in the context of ongoing global climate change. In this chapter we summarise our current state of knowledge regarding the oceanic distributions, formation and consumption pathways, and oceanic uptake and emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4, with a particular emphasis on the upper ocean. We specifically consider the role of the ocean in regulating the tropospheric content of these important radiative gases in a world in which their tropospheric content is rapidly increasing and estimate the impact of global change on their present and future oceanic uptake and/or emission. Finally, we evaluate the various uncertainties associated with the most commonly used methods for estimating uptake and emission and identify future research needs.