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  • 1
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    Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database (2020)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-20
    Description: We present a database of field data for active faults in the central Apennines, Italy including trace, fault and master fault locations with activity and location certainties, and slip-rate, slip-vector and surface geometry data. As advances occur in our capability to create more detailed fault-based hazard models, depending on the availability of primary data and observations, it is desirable that such data can be organized in a way that is easily understood and incorporated into present and future models. The database structure presented herein aims to assist this process. We recommend stating what observations have led to different location and activity certainty and presenting slip-rate data with point location coordinates of where the data were collected with the time periods over which they were calculated. Such data reporting allows more complete uncertainty analyses in hazard and risk modelling. The data and maps are available as kmz, kml, and geopackage files with the data presented in spreadsheet files and the map coordinates as txt files.
    Keywords: Binary Object; Binary Object (File Size); Binary Object (Media Type); CentralApennines; Central Apennines; Central Apennines, Central Italy; earthquake; fault; Fault2SHA; Italy; MULT; Multiple investigations; normal fault
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 10 data points
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 2
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    Fault-Based Earthquake Rupture Forecast in Central Italy: Remarks after the L'Aquila Mw 6.3 Event (2011)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: In 2006 we published an earthquake hazard model called LASSCI (LAyered Seismogenic Source model in central Italy). In October 2008 we began to update the model for use in 5- and 10-year forecasts. The LASSCI-2006 model is supported by good fault-based definitions of seismogenic sources and simple physically motivated models of earthquake occurrence; the LASSCI-2009 model has been improved by revision of the error propagation assumptions and increased accuracy of the earthquake probabilities. The 6 April 2009 earthquake that struck L'Aquila occurred on the model fault having the highest probability of occurrence in the 2009 revised LASSCI forecast: it is therefore consistent with our model assumptions. Furthermore, peak ground accelerations were in reasonable agreement with the values having 90% probability of not being exceeded in 50 yr. In the revised 2009 model, the aggregate probability of having a maximum-sized event in the next 5 yr on at least one of the neighboring sources (less than 25 km distance away) decreases in L'Aquila from 10% to 7% after the earthquake occurrence, but still remains a maximum there along the central Apennines. The LASSCI models 2006 and 2009, featuring characteristic fault sources and time dependence, seem to be suitable for guidance in reconstruction and seismic retrofit in the central Appenines.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 3
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    Definition of Seismic Input From Fault‐Based PSHA: Remarks After the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: This work focuses on how the progress in earthquake science that follows a large, deeply studied earthquake might be promptly combined with updated approaches of seismic hazard analysis to guide applicative choices for seismic risk reduction, such as postevent seismic microzoning and building design. Both seismic microzoning and seismic design of structures require strong motion records to perform numerical site response analyses. These records have to be related to the seismotectonic context and historical seismicity of the investigation area. We first performed a fault‐based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the area struck by the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence to individuate reference uniform hazard spectra at rock conditions. We used two different seismic hazard models, one considering 27 individual seismogenic sources (ISSs), and the second one involving grid point seismicity, using a fixed‐radius smoothing approach. The geological and seismotectonic data of the 2016 seismic sequence were used to update the model of ISSs. We performed a deaggregation analysis to evaluate the contribution of the ISS in the hazard of four representative sites and to select the magnitude‐distance pairs useful in the selection of the real accelerograms. The deaggregation analysis has been performed to identify which source and magnitude most contribute to the hazard for each site, and for different periods of spectral accelerations. Finally, we select, for each site, a set of natural accelerograms, from both nonimpulsive and pulse‐like records, based on the magnitude‐distance pairs that are compatible on average with target uniform hazard spectra.
    Description: Published
    Description: 595-620
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: A fault‐based and time‐dependent approaches give a complementary view of PSHA • Weprovide Input ground motion for site effects studies in central Italy. We consider this approach useful for reconstruction projects
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 4
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    The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19) (2021)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
    Description: Published
    Description: SE112
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 5
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    Variable Fault Geometry Suggests Detailed Fault‐Slip‐Rate Profiles and Geometries Are Needed for Fault‐Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-29
    Description: t has been suggested that a better knowledge of fault locations and slip rates improves seismic hazard assessments. However, the importance of detailed along‐fault‐slip‐rate profiles and variable fault geometry has not yet been explored. We quantify the importance for modeled seismicity rates of using multiple throw‐rate measurements to construct along‐fault throw‐rate profiles rather than basing throw‐rate profiles on a single measurement across a fault. We use data from 14 normal faults within the central Italian Apennines where we have multiple measurements along the faults. For each fault, we compared strain rates across the faults using our detailed throw‐rate profiles and degraded data and simplified profiles. We show the implied variation in average recurrence intervals for a variety of magnitudes that result. Furthermore, we demonstrate how fault geometry (variable strike and dip) can alter calculated ground‐shaking intensities at specific sites by changing the source‐to‐site distance for ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Our findings show that improved fault‐based seismic hazard calculations require detailed along‐fault throw‐rate profiles based on well‐constrained local 3D fault geometry for calculating recurrence rates and shaking intensities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 110-123
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 6
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    The Role of Viscoelastic Stress Transfer in Long-Term Earthquake Cascades: Insights After the Central Italy 2016-2017 Seismic Sequenc (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-25
    Description: Central Italy is characterized by a network of active faults that interact in a complex manner. Coseismic Coulomb stress changes have been invoked by several authors to explain the concentration of moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this region, but none has considered the time-dependent viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as a possible additional source of stress changes at a regional scale. Here starting from the 1915 M-w 6.90.2 Fucino earthquake, we calculated the coseismic plus postseismic Coulomb failure stress changes (CFS) due to eight moderate-to-strong earthquakes that have struck Central Italy in the last century and culminated with the 2016-2017 sequence. Results from this modeling coupled with some synthetic tests simulating normal fault earthquakes with different magnitudes allowed us to highlight the importance of postseismic processes. In particular, the viscoelastic stress transfer due to events of M-w 〉= 6.5 can modify the spatial distribution of CFS on a centennial timescale and therefore trigger events at larger distances. In addition, using these results, we identified other earthquake clusters in the historical catalogue (last 618 years), which, like the 1915-2017 series, were potentially modulated by both coseismic and postseismic processes. Finally, considering our calculations combined with historical and paleoseismological data, we suggest that several faults in Central Italy may be at present close to failure.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3411-3428
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 7
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    Probability of Occurrence and Displacement Regression of Distributed Surface Rupturing for Reverse Earthquakes (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-05
    Description: Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis provides a systematic approach to estimate the likelihood of occurrence and expected amount of surface displacement during an earthquake on-fault (principal fault rupturing) and off-fault (distributed rupturing). The methodology is based on four key parameters describing the probability of occurrence and the spatial distribution of the displacement both on and off-fault. In this work we concentrate on off-fault rupturing, and develop an original probability model for the occurrence of distributed ruptures and for the expected displacement distribution based on the compilation and reappraisal of surface ruptures from 15 historical crustal earthquakes of reverse kinematics, with magnitudes ranging from Mw 4.9 to 7.9. We introduce a new ranking scheme to distinguish principal faults (rank 1) from simple distributed ruptures (rank 2), primary distributed ruptures (rank 1.5), bending-moment (rank 21) and flexural-slip (rank 22) and triggered faulting (rank 3). We then used the rank 2 distributed ruptures with distances from the principal fault ranging from 5 to 1,500 m. To minimize bias due to the incomplete nature of the database, we propose a “slicing” approach as an alternative to the “gridding” approach. The parameters obtained from slicing are then is then combined with Monte Carlo simulations to model the dependence of the probability of occurrence and exceedance with the dimensions and position of the site of interest with respect to the principal fault, both along and across strike. We applied the probability model to a case-study in Finland to illustrate the applicability of the method given the limited extend of the available dataset. We finally suggest that probabilistic fault displacement hazard model will benefit by evaluating spatial distribution of distributed rupture in the light of spatial completeness of the input data, structural complexity and physics observables of the causative fault.
    Description: Published
    Description: 581605
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 8
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    Style of faulting of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling (2020)
    EGU - Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-18
    Description: Tectonic styles and distributions of nodal planes are an essential input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. As a part of a recent elaboration of a new seismic hazard model for Italy, we adopted a cascade criteria approach to parametrize the tectonic style of expected earthquake ruptures and their uncertainty in an area-based seismicity model. Using available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5), first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes, and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database for the last ~ 100 yrs gathering a thousand of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. The adopted procedure consists, in each seismic zone, of separating the available seismic moment tensors in the three main tectonic styles, making summation within each group, identifying possible nodal plane(s) taking into account the different percentages of tectonic styles and including, where necessary, total or partial random source contributions. Referring to the used area source model, for several seismic zones we obtained robust results, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In zones characterized by a low seismic moment release, the possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear and it has been represented using different combination (total or partial) of random sources.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3577–3592
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 9
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    Seismic slip history of the Pizzalto fault (central Apennines, Italy) using in situ-produced 36Cl cosmic ray exposure dating and rare earth element concentrations (2021)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-03
    Description: Morphological and geological observations reveal that most Apenninic faults are highly segmented and that the majority of the fault segments are less than 10 km long. Although these faults have undergone numerous paleoseismological investigations, quantitative data remain crucially lacking for a large number of fault segments. Because such data are essential to understanding how these faults have ruptured and interacted in the past and how they might behave in the future, we investigated the Holocene seismic history of the Pizzalto normal fault, a 13 km long fault segment belonging to the Pizzalto-Rotella-Aremogna fault system in the Apennines. We collected 44 samples from the Pizzalto fault plane exhumed during the Holocene and analyzed the 36Cl and rare earth element (REE) contents. Together, the 36Cl and REE concentrations show that at least six events have exhumed 4.4 m of the fault scarp between 3 and 1 ka, with slip per event values ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 m. No major events have been detected over the last 1 kyr. The Rotella-Aremogna-Pizzalto fault system has a clustered earthquake behavior with a mean recurrence time of 1.2 kyr and a low to moderate probability (ranging from 4{\%} to 26{\%}) of earthquake occurrence over the next 50 years.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1983–2003
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: central Apennines,chlorine 36,fault-based earthquake rupture forecast,paleoseismology,rare earth elements
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 10
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    Computational Tools for Relaxing the Fault Segmentation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Modelling in Complex Fault Systems (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-10
    Description: Use of faults in seismic hazard models allows us to capture the recurrence of large-magnitude events and therefore improve the reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In the past decades, fault segmentation provided an important framework for quantifying fault-based PSHA. Recent complex coseismic ruptures (e.g., 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury, 2012 Mw 8.6 Sumatra, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, 2016 Mw 6.5 central Italy) have shown the need to consider different possible combinations of rupture scenarios in PSHA. Here we present two new methodologies that model rates of ruptures along complex fault systems, one based on a floating rupture approach (FRESH) and another one based on assumed rupture scenarios (SUNFISH). They represent alternatives to a recently proposed approach (SHERIFS), and further step to overcome the segmented and un-segmented approaches commonly used in PSHA in Europe. Differences among SHERIFS, SUNFiSH and FRESH are related to the way slip rate, rupture geometries and magnitude–frequency distributions are modelled. To quantify the differences between these three methodologies, we compared PSHA results based on geometries and slip rates of a fault system located in northeastern Italy, assuming a given maximum magnitude and the same seismic moment rate target. Differences up to 20–30% in the peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% in 50 years are observed. Finally, we show that the three methodologies are able to solve for the long-term rate of ruptures with resulting PSHA that reflect the fault system geometry and slip rates, without any assumption on segment boundaries. Using fault-based approaches in PSHA requires collecting as much local geological information as possible. Now that multi-fault rupture approaches are available, simplifying assumptions often made to model complex fault systems (uniform slip rate, segmentation hypothesis) are no longer necessary. On the other hand, local data collection should be strongly encouraged to better characterize the actual fault slip rate variability and the complex 3D geometrie
    Description: Published
    Description: 1855–1877
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    PAPER (OA)
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