GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From metastable to coherent sets - time-discretization schemes (2017)
    Berlin-Dahlem : Zuse Institute Berlin
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 Seiten, 1,30 MB) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    Series Statement: ZIB-Report 17, 74
    URL: https://edocs.tib.eu/files/e01fn18/1030746974.pdf
    Language: English
    Note: Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 12-14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    GEOMAR CATALOGUE
    Link to Library Catalog
    get availability status
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An application-oriented framework for feature tracking in atmospheric sciences (2017)
    Berlin-Dahlem : Zuse Institute Berlin
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (4 Seiten, 628 KB) , Diagramme
    Series Statement: ZIB-Report 17, 50
    URL: https://edocs.tib.eu/files/e01fn19/1670050211.pdf
    Language: English
    Note: Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 4 , The manuscript will appear in IEEE 7th Symposium on Large Data Analysis and Visualization (LDAV) (2017)
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    GEOMAR CATALOGUE
    Link to Library Catalog
    get availability status
  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: BMBF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Federal Environment Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010809
    Description: http://howas21.gfz-potsdam.de/howas21/
    Description: https://www.umwelt.niedersachsen.de/startseite/themen/wasser/hochwasser_amp_kustenschutz/hochwasserrisikomanagement_richtlinie/hochwassergefahren_und_hochwasserrisikokarten/hochwasserkarten-121920.html
    Description: https://download.geofabrik.de/europe/germany.html
    Description: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSN024
    Description: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-0054
    Description: https://oasishub.co/dataset/surface-water-flooding-footprinthurricane-harvey-august-2017-jba
    Description: https://www.wasser.sachsen.de/hochwassergefahrenkarte-11915.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; decision support ; extreme events ; integrated flood risk management ; risk assessment
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Berlin Dahlem precipitation time-series 2001-2013 (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Ritschel, Christoph; Ulbrich, Uwe; Névir, Peter; Rust, Henning (2017): Precipitation extremes on multiple timescales - Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model and intensity-duration-frequency curves. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(12), 6501-6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: For several hydrological modelling tasks, precipitation time-series with a high (i.e. sub-daily) resolution are indispensable. This data is, however, not always available and thus model simulations are used to compensate. A canonical class of stochastic models for sub-daily precipitation are Poisson-cluster processes, with the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model (BLRPM) as a prominent representative. The BLRPM has been shown to well reproduce certain characteristics found in observations. Our focus is on intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF), which are of particular interest in risk assessment. Based on a high resolution precipitation time-series (5-min) from Berlin-Dahlem, BLRPM parameters are estimated and IDF curves are obtained on the one hand directly from the observations and on the other hand from BLRPM simulations. Comparing the resulting IDF curves suggests that the BLRPM is able to reproduce main features of IDF statistics across several durations but cannot capture singular events (here an event of magnitude 5 times larger than the second larges event). Here, IDF curves are estimated based on a parametric model for the duration dependence of the scale parameter in the General Extreme Value distribution; this allows to obtain a consistent set of curves over all durations. We use the BLRPM to investigate the validity of this approach based on simulated long time series.
    Keywords: Berlin, Germany; Berlin-Dahlem_BotGarden; DATE/TIME; ORDINAL NUMBER; Precipitation; Tipping bucket; Weather station/meteorological observation; WST
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 113952 data points
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    DATA PANGAEA
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent events (2017)
    Wiley
    In:  Atmospheric Science Letters, 18 (7). pp. 315-322.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the SSI introduced by Leckebusch et al. While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track, the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/asl.758
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Discontinuous Daily Temperatures in the WATCH Forcing Datasets (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16 (1). pp. 465-472.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-23
    Description: The Water and Global Change (WATCH) forcing datasets have been created to support the use of hydrological and land surface models for the assessment of the water cycle within climate change studies. They are based on 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) or ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) with temperatures (among other variables) adjusted such that their monthly means match the monthly temperature dataset from the Climatic Research Unit. To this end, daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures within one calendar month have been subjected to a correction involving monthly means of the respective month. As these corrections can be largely different for adjacent months, this procedure potentially leads to implausible differences in daily temperatures across the boundaries of calendar months. We analyze day-to-day temperature fluctuations within and across months and find that across-months differences are significantly larger, mostly in the tropics and frigid zones. Average across-months differences in daily mean temperature are typically between 10% and 40% larger than their corresponding within-months average temperature differences. However, regions with differences up to 200% can be found in tropical Africa. Particularly in regions where snowmelt is a relevant player for hydrology, a few degrees Celsius difference can be decisive for triggering this process. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the same regions, but in a less severe way.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0123.1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies (2014)
    Taylor & Francis
    In:  Tellus A: Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 66 . p. 22830.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-11-25
    Description: Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model’s skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.22830
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 . pp. 2163-2185.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms (2016)
    Schweizerbart
    In:  Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (6). pp. 721-738.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: Winter wind storms related to intense extra-tropical cyclones are meteorological extreme events, often with major impacts on economy and human life, especially for Europe and the mid-latitudes. Hence, skillful decadal predictions regarding the frequency of their occurrence would be of great socio-economic value. The present paper extends the study of Kruschke et al. (2014) in several aspects. First, this study is situated in a more impact oriented context by analyzing the frequency of potentially damaging wind storm events instead of targeting at cyclones as general meteorological features which was done by Kruschke et al. (2014). Second, this study incorporates more data sets by analyzing five decadal hindcast experiments – 41 annual (1961–2001) initializations integrated for ten years each – set up with different initialization strategies. However, all experiments are based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in a low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR). Differing combinations of these five experiments allow for more robust estimates of predictive skill (due to considerably larger ensemble size) and systematic comparisons of the underlying initialization strategies. Third, the hindcast experiments are corrected for model bias and potential drifts over lead time by means of a novel parametric approach, accounting for non-stationary model drifts. We analyze whether skillful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) can be provided regarding winter (ONDJFM) wind storm frequencies over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Skill is assessed by using climatological probabilities and uninitialized transient simulations as reference forecasts. It is shown that forecasts of average winter wind storm frequencies for winters 2–5 and winters 2–9 are skillful over large parts of the NH. However, most of this skill is associated with external forcing from transient greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, already included in the uninitialized simulations. Only over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific, the Northwest Atlantic as well as the Eastern Mediterranean the initialized hindcasts perform significantly better than the uninitialized simulations. While no significant differences are evident between anomaly- and full-field-initialization, initializing the model's ocean component from GECCO2-ocean-reanalysis yields slightly better results than from ORA-S4, especially over the Northeast Pacific. Additionally, it is shown that the novel parametric drift-correction approach – estimating potential cubic drifts with parameters linearly changing in time – is more appropriate than the standard procedure – estimating constant model drifts via the lead-time-dependent bias – and, hence, yields higher skill estimates.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0641
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction (2016)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (12). pp. 2379-2394.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...