Description: We compare two methods for estimating mean velocities and diffusivities from surface drifter observations, using data from the Nordic Seas. The first is the conventional method of grouping data into geographical bins. The second relies on a "clustering" algorithm, and groups velocity observations according to nearest-neighbor distance. Capturing the spatial variability of the mean velocity requires using bins with a length scale of ˜50km. However, because many bins have few observations, the statistical significance varies substantially between bins. Clustering yields sets with approximately the same number of observations, so the significance is more uniform. At the densely sampled Svinøy section, clusters can be used to construct the mean flow field with 〈=10km resolution. Clustering also excels at the estimation of eddy diffusivities, allowing resolution at the 20 km scale in the densely sampled regions. Taking bathymetry into account in the clustering process further improves mean estimates where the data is sparse. Clustering the available surface drifter data, extended by recent deployments from the POLEWARD project, reveals new features in the surface circulation. These are a large anticyclonic vortex in the center of the Lofoten Basin and two anticyclonic recirculations at the Svinøy section. Clustering also yields maps of the eddy diffusivities at unprecedented resolution. Diffusivities are suppressed at the core of the Norwegian Atlantic Current, while they are elevated in the Lofoten Basin and along the Polar Front.

Description: During the 4th International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY), it has become increasingly obvious that we need to prepare for a new era in the Arctic. IPY occurred during the time of the largest retreat of Arctic sea ice since satellite observations started in 1979. This minimum in September sea ice coverage was accompanied by other signs of a changing Arctic, including the unexpectedly rapid transpolar drift of the Tara schooner, a general thinning of Arctic sea ice and a double-dip minimum of the Arctic Oscillation at the end of 2009. Thanks to the lucky timing of the IPY, those recent phenomena are well documented as they have been scrutinized by the international research community, taking advantage of the dedicated observing systems that were deployed during IPY. However, understanding changes in the Arctic System likely requires monitoring over decades, not years. Many IPY projects have contributed to the pilot phase of a future, sustained, observing system for the Arctic. We now know that many of the technical challenges can be overcome. The Norwegian projects iAOOS-Norway, POLEWARD and MEOP were significant ocean monitoring/research contributions during the IPY. A large variety of techniques were used in these programs, ranging from oceanographic cruises to animal-borne platforms, autonomous gliders, helicopter surveys, surface drifters and current meter arrays. Our research approach was interdisciplinary from the outset, merging ocean dynamics, hydrography, biology, sea ice studies, as well as forecasting. The datasets are tremendously rich, and they will surely yield numerous findings in the years to come. Here, we present a status report at the end of the official period for IPY. Highlights of the research include: a quantification of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Nordic Seas (“the loop”) in thermal space, based on a set of up to 15-year-long series of current measurements; a detailed map of the surface circulation as well as characterization of eddy dispersion based on drifter data; transport monitoring of Atlantic Water using gliders; a view of the water mass exchanges in the Norwegian Atlantic Current from both Eulerian and Lagrangian data; an integrated physical–biological view of the ice-influenced ecosystem in the East Greenland Current, showing for instance nutrient-limited primary production as a consequence of decreasing ice cover for larger regions of the Arctic Ocean. Our sea ice studies show that the albedo of snow on ice is lower when snow cover is thinner and suggest that reductions in sea ice thickness, without changes in sea ice extent, will have a significant impact on the arctic atmosphere. We present up-to-date freshwater transport numbers for the East Greenland Current in the Fram Strait, as well as the first map of the annual cycle of freshwater layer thickness in the East Greenland Current along the east coast of Greenland, from data obtained by CTDs mounted on seals that traveled back and forth across the Nordic Seas. We have taken advantage of the real-time transmission of some of these platforms and demonstrate the use of ice-tethered profilers in validating satellite products of sea ice motion, as well as the use of Seagliders in validating ocean forecasts, and we present a sea ice drift product – significantly improved both in space and time – for use in operational ice-forecasting applications. We consider real-time acquisition of data from the ocean interior to be a vital component of a sustained Arctic Ocean Observing System, and we conclude by presenting an outline for an observing system for the European sector of the Arctic Ocean.

Description: We examine the trajectories of 168 drifters as a proxy for Atlantic water flowing through the Nordic Seas. The drifters were released at or passed through the Svinøy section, off the west coast of Norway. For comparison, we generate a set of synthetic trajectories using a stochastic model, with a range of diffusivities. With the both sets, we determine the transit times of both drifters and particles from Svinøy to Arctic gateways: the Barents Sea and Spitsbergen. The mean arrival times to these locations are roughly 200 and 500 days, respectively. This implies ample time for cooling of the surface waters, which increases densities and permits subduction before reaching the Arctic. However a range of transit times is seen; some parcels reach Fram Strait in only 4 months while others are still in the southern Nordic Seas after 2 years. The results do not support the idea that temperature or salinity anomalies can exist as coherent packets. The drifters passing Svinøy, when treated as a group, quickly spread over large distances, mixing with water in the Norwegian and Lofoten Basins. Thus an anomaly entering the Nordic Seas would quickly be obliterated. However, the velocity of the clusters center of mass is consistent with anomaly propagation speeds inferred previously from hydrographic measurements, suggesting the observed variability is advective in nature.

Description: The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC) and its eddy field are examined using data from surface drifters. The data set used spans nearly 20 years, from June 1991 to December 2009. The results are largely consistent with previous estimates, which were based on data from the first decade only. With our new data set, statistical analysis of the mean fields can be calculated with larger confidence. The two branches of the NwAC, one over the continental slope and a second further offshore, are clearly captured. The Norwegian Coastal Current is also resolved. In addition, we observe a semipermanent anticylonic eddy in the Lofoten Basin, a feature seen previously in hydrography and in models. The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is intensified along the path of the NwAC, with the largest values occurring in the Lofoten Basin. The strongest currents, exceeding 100 cm s−1, occur west of Lofoten. Lateral diffusivities were computed in five domains and ranged from 1–5 × 107 cm2 s−1. The Lagrangian integral time and space scales are 1–2 days and 7–23 km, respectively. The data set allows studies of seasonal and interannual variations as well. The strongest seasonal signal is in the NwAC itself, as the mean flow strengthens by approximately 20% in winter. The EKE and diffusivities on the other hand do not exhibit consistent seasonality in the sampled regions. There are no consistent indications of changes in either the mean or fluctuating surface velocities between the 1990s and 2000s.

Description: Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

Description: Transports of total volume and water masses obtained from a mooring array in the East Greenland Current (EGC) in Fram Strait are presented for the period 1997–2009. The array in the EGC was moved along isobaths from 79°N to 78°50′N78°50′N in 2002 to line up with moorings in the eastern Fram Strait. Analysis of the time series at the two latitudes shows that associated with the southward move, the annual mean volume transport of the EGC increased from 5.8±1.8 Sv to 8.7±2.5 Sv, mostly related with an increase in barotropic flow. This suggests a recirculation of close to 3 Sv at 78°50′N78°50′N as a consequence of the large-scale wind-driven cyclonic gyre in the Nordic Seas. In addition, the volume transport at 78°50′N78°50′N showed a clear seasonal cycle which was absent at 79°N. Estimates of the wind-driven Sverdrup transport at two different latitudes show that the difference in total volume transport and seasonality can largely be explained by the wind-stress curl. However, weak transport in 2003 was only partially related with weak Sverdrup transport and coincided also with anomalously weak northerly winds. The stronger recirculation at 78°50′N78°50′N has also consequences for the observed Atlantic Water: there is significantly more Atlantic derived water present at the southerly latitude. In addition, the warm anomaly in Fram Strait between 2005 and 2007 doubled the amount of Recirculated Atlantic Water temporarily. Finally, we estimate that close to 2.7 Sv, or 50%, of Atlantic derived water recirculates in Fram Strait.