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  • 1
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    Hierarchical structures in Northern Hemispheric extratropical winter ocean-atmosphere interactions (2016)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, pp. 1-16, ISSN: 08998418
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: In recent years extensive studies on the Earth’s climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures within single climatic fields directly on or parallel to the Earth’s surface. Here, we develop a novel approach of node weighted coupled network measures to study correlations between ocean and atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and construct 18 coupled climate networks, each consisting of two subnetworks. In all cases, one subnetwork represents monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while the other is based on the monthly geopotential height (HGT) of isobaric surfaces at different pressure levels covering the troposphere as well as the lower stratosphere. The weighted cross-degree density proves to be consistent with the leading coupled pattern obtained from maximum covariance analysis. Network measures of higher order allow for a further analysis of the correlation structure between the two fields and consistently indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics the ocean is correlated with the atmosphere in a hierarchical fashion such that large areas of the ocean surface correlate with multiple statistically dissimilar regions in the atmosphere. Ultimately we show that this observed hierarchy is linked to large-scale atmospheric variability patterns, such as the Pacific North American pattern, forcing the ocean on monthly time scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 2
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    Grounding social foundations for integrated assessment models of climate change (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to derive climate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of social system has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyond existing IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processes within IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on the social branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 3
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    Coherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has a direct effect on the livelihoods of two billion people in the Indian-subcontinent. Yet, our understanding of the drivers of multi-decadal variability of the ISM is far from being complete. In this context, large-scale forcing of ISM rainfall variability with multi-decadal resolution over the last two millennia is investigated using new records of sea surface salinity (δ18Ow) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Higher δ18Ow values during the Dark Age Cold Period (1550 to 1250 years BP) and the Little Ice Age (700 to 200 years BP) are suggestive of reduced ISM rainfall, whereas lower δ18Ow values during the Medieval Warm Period (1200 to 800 years BP) and the major portion of the Roman Warm Period (1950 to 1550 years BP) indicate a wetter ISM. This variability in ISM rainfall appears to be modulated by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) via changes in large-scale thermal contrast between the Asian land mass and the Indian Ocean, a relationship that is also identifiable in the observational data of the last century. Therefore, we suggest that inter-hemispheric scale interactions between such extra tropical forcing mechanisms and global warming are likely to be influential in determining future trends in ISM rainfall.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model3,4,5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet’s temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica’s long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system (2021)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan (2021)
    Cambridge Univ. Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks (2022)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 ∘C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming – from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 %–93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt–elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 %–70 % of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into of the feedback loops governing the “deep future” and, thus, long-term resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries (2023)
    AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021 (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-29
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Report - other report
  • 10
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    Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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