Description: Despite the growing spatio‐temporal density of geophysical observations at subduction zones, predicting the timing and size of future earthquakes remains a challenge. Here, we simulate multiple seismic cycles in a laboratory‐scale subduction zone. The model creates both partial and full margin ruptures, simulating magnitude Mw 6.2‐8.3 earthquakes with a coefficient of variation in recurrence intervals of 0.5, similar to real subduction zones. We show that the common procedure of estimating the next earthquake size from slip‐deficit is unreliable. On the contrary, Machine Learning predicts well the timing and size of laboratory earthquakes by reconstructing and properly interpreting the spatio‐temporally complex loading history of the system. These results promise substantial progress in real earthquake forecasting, as they suggest that the complex motion recorded by geodesists at subduction zones might be diagnostic of earthquake imminence.

Description: Published

Description: 1303-1311

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

Description: ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l 〉 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.

Description: Published

Description: 1553–1567

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Subduction megathrusts host the Earth’s greatest earthquakes as the 1960 Valdivia (Mw 9.5, Chile), the largest earthquake instrumentally recorded, and the recent 2004 Sumatra- Andaman (Mw 9.2, Indonesia), 2010 Maule (Mw 8.8, Chile), and 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.1, Japan) earthquakes triggering devastating tsunamis and representing a major hazard to society. Unravelling the spatio-temporal pattern of these events is thus a key for seismic hazard assessment of subduction zones. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of two research areas–empirical analysis of global-scale natural data and experimental data from an analogue seismotectonic modelling—devoted to study causeeffect relationships between subduction zone parameters and the megathrust seismogenic behavior. The combination of the two approaches overcomes the observational bias and inherent sampling limitations of geological processes (i.e., shortness of instrumental and historical data, decreasing completeness and resolution with time into the past) and allows drawing appropriately from multiple disciplines with the aim of highlighting the geodynamic conditions that may favor the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes.

Description: Published

Description: 600152

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We developed a hybrid numerical model of dike propagation in two dimensions solving both for the magma trajectory and velocity as a function of the source overpressure, the magma physical properties (density and viscosity), and the crustal density and stress field. This model is used to characterize the influence of surface load changes on magma migration toward the surface. We confirm that surface loading induced by volcanic edifice construction tends both to attract the magma and to reduce its velocity. In contrast, surface unloading, for instance, due to caldera formation, tends to divert the magma to the periphery-retarding eruption. In both cases the deflected magma may remain trapped at depth. Amplitudes of dike deflection and magma velocity variation depend on the ratio between the magma driving pressure (source overpressure as well as buoyancy) and the stress field perturbation. Our model is then applied to the July 2001 eruption of Etna, where the final dike deflection had been previously interpreted as due to the topographic load. We show that the velocity decrease observed during the last stage of the propagation can also be attributed to the local stress field. We use the dike propagation duration to estimate the magma overpressure at the dike bottom to be less than 4 MPa. This approach can be potentially used to forecast if, where, and when propagating magma might reach the surface when having knowledge on the local stress field, magma physical properties, and reservoir overpressure.

Description: Published

Description: 1107-1125

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Calderas are topographic depressions formed by the collapse of a partly drained magma reservoir. At volcanic edifices with calderas, eruptive fissures can circumscribe the outer caldera rim, be oriented radially and/or align with the regional tectonic stress field. Constraining the mechanisms that govern this spatial arrangement is fundamental to understand the dynamics of shallow magma storage and transport and evaluate volcanic hazard. Here we show with numerical models that the previously unappreciated unloading effect of caldera formation may contribute significantly to the stress budget of a volcano. We first test this hypothesis against the ideal case of Fernandina, Galápagos, where previous models only partly explained the peculiar pattern of circumferential and radial eruptive fissures and the geometry of the intrusions determined by inverting the deformation data. We show that by taking into account the decompression due to the caldera formation, the modeled edifice stress field is consistent with all the observations. We then develop a general model for the stress state at volcanic edifices with calderas based on the competition of caldera decompression, magma buoyancy forces and tectonic stresses. These factors control: 1) the shallow accumulation of magma in stacked sills, consistently with observations; 2) the conditions for the development of circumferential and/or radial eruptive fissures, as observed on active volcanoes. This top-down control exerted by changes in the distribution of mass at the surface allows better understanding of how shallow magma is transferred at active calderas, contributing to forecasting the location and type of opening fissures.

Description: Published

Description: 257-293

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Active calderas are seldom associated with circumferential eruptive fissures, but eroded magmatic complexes reveal widespread circumferential dikes. This suggests that, while the conditions to emplace circumferential dikes are easily met, mechanisms must prevent them from reaching the surface. We explain this discrepancy with experiments of air injection into gelatin shaped as a volcano with caldera. Analog dikes show variable deflection, depending on the competition between overpressure, P e , and topographic unloading, P l; when P l /P e = 4.8–5.3, the dikes propagate orthogonal to the least compressive stress. Due to the unloading, they become circumferential and stall below the caldera rim; buoyancy is fundamental for the further rise and circumferential fissure development. Numerical models quantitatively constrain the stress orientation within the gelatin, explaining the observed circumferential dikes. Our results explain how dikes propagate below the rim of felsic and mafic calderas, but only in the latter they are prone to feed circumferential fissures.

Description: Published

Description: 6212–6219

Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Tectonic earthquake swarms (TES) often coincide with aseismic slip and sometimes precede damaging earthquakes. In spite of recent progress in understanding the significance and properties of TES at plate boundaries, their mechanics and scaling are still largely uncertain. Here we evaluate several TES that occurred during the past 20 years on a transform plate boundary in North Iceland. We show that the swarms complement each other spatially with later swarms discouraged from fault segments activated by earlier swarms, which suggests efficient strain release and aseismic slip. The fault area illuminated by earthquakes during swarms may be more representative of the total moment release than the cumulative moment of the swarm earthquakes. We use these findings and other published results from a variety oftectonic settings to discuss general scaling properties for TES. The results indicate that the importance of TES in releasing tectonic strain at plate boundaries may have been underestimated.

Description: Published

Description: 62-70

Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Subduction zones are monitored using space geodesy with increasing resolution, with the aim of better capturing the deformation accompanying the seismic cycle. Here, we investigate data characteristics that maximize the performance of a machine learning binary classifier predicting slip‐event imminence. We overcome the scarcity of recorded instances from real subduction zones using data from a seismotectonic analog model monitored with a spatially dense, continuously recording onshore geodetic network. We show that a 70‐85 km wide coastal swath recording interseismic deformation gives the most important information on slip imminence. Prediction performances are mainly influenced by the alarm duration (amount of time that we consider an event as imminent), with density of stations and record length playing a secondary role. The techniques developed in this study are most likely applicable in regions of slow‐earthquakes, where stick‐slip‐like failures occur at time intervals of months to years.

Description: Published

Description: e2019GL086615

Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Accurate assessment of the rate and state friction parameters of rocks is essential for producing realistic earthquake rupture scenarios and, in turn, for seismic hazard analysis. Those parameters can be directly measured on samples, or indirectly based on inversion of coseismic or postseismic slip evolution. However, both direct and indirect approaches require assumptions that might bias the results. Aiming to reduce the potential sources of bias, we take advantage of a downscaled analog model reproducing megathrust earthquakes. We couple the simulated annealing algorithm with quasi-dynamic numerical models to retrieve rate and state parameters reproducing the recurrence time, rupture duration and slip of the analog model, in the ensemble. Then, we focus on how the asperity size and the neighboring segments’ properties control the seismic cycle characteristics and the corresponding variability of rate and state parameters. We identify a tradeoff between (a-b) of the asperity and (a-b) of neighboring creeping segments, with multiple parameter combinations that allow mimicking the analog model behavior. Tuning of rate and state parameters is required to fit laboratory experiments with different asperity lengths. Poorly constrained frictional properties of neighboring segments are responsible for uncertainties of (a-b) of the asperity in the order of per mille. Roughly one order of magnitude larger uncertainties derive from asperity size. Those results provide a glimpse of the variability that rate and state friction estimates might have when used as a constraint to model fault slip behavior in nature.

Description: Published

Description: e2023JB026594

Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The Multi-scale Laboratories (MSL) are a network of European laboratories bringing together the scientific fields of analogue modeling, paleomagnetism, experimental rock and melt physics, geochemistry and microscopy. MSL is one of ten Thematic Core Services (TCS) of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS). The overarching goal of EPOS is to establish a comprehensive multidisciplinary research platform for the Earth sciences in Europe. It aims at facilitating the integrated use of data, models, and facilities, from both existing and new distributed pan European Research Infrastructures, allowing open access and transparent use of data. The TCS MSL network allows researchers to collaborate with other labs and scientists through the transnational Access (TNA) program. By becoming part of the rapidly growing TCS MSL network, new laboratories are offered a platform to showcase their research data output, laboratory equipment and information, and the opportunity to open laboratories to guest researchers through the Transnational Access (TNA) program. The EPOS Multi-scale laboratories offer researchers a fully operational data publication chain tailored to the specific needs of laboratory research, from a bespoke metadata editor, through dedicated, domain-specific) data repositories, to the MSL Portal showcasing these citable data publications. During this pro-cess the data publications are assigned with DOI, published with open licenses (e.g. CC BY 4.0) and described with standardized and machine-readable rich metadata (following the FAIR Principles to make research data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable. . The TCS MSL is currently working on linking these data publications to the EPOS Central Portal, the main discovery and access point for European multi disciplinary data, and on increasing the number of connected data repositories.

Description: Published

Description: DM318

Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo

Description: JCR Journal