Description: Ocean warming has been implicated in the observed decline of oceanic phytoplankton biomass. Some studies suggest a physical pathway of warming via stratification and nutrient flux, and others a biological effect on plankton metabolic rates; yet the relative strength and possible interaction of these mechanisms remains unknown. Here, we implement projections from a global circulation model in a mesocosm experiment to examine both mechanisms in a multi-trophic plankton community. Warming treatments had positive direct effects on phytoplankton biomass, but these were overcompensated by the negative effects of decreased nutrient flux. Zooplankton switched from phytoplankton to grazing on ciliates. These results contrast with previous experiments under nutrient-replete conditions, where warming indirectly reduced phytoplankton biomass via increased zooplankton grazing. We conclude that the effect of ocean warming on marine plankton depends on the nutrient regime, and provide a mechanistic basis for understanding global change in marine ecosystems.

Description: There is growing evidence that average global phytoplankton concentrations have been changing over the past century, yet published trajectories of change are highly divergent. Here, we review and analyze 115 published phytoplankton trend estimates originating from a wide variety of sampling instruments to explore the underlying patterns and ecological implications of phytoplankton change over the period of oceanographic measurement (1889 to 2010). We found that published estimates of phytoplankton change were much less variable when estimated over longer time series and consistent spatial scales and from the same sampling instruments. Average phytoplankton concentrations tended to increase over time in near-shore waters and over more recent time periods and declined in the open oceans and over longer time periods. Most published evidence suggests changes in temperature and nutrient supply rates as leading causes of these phytoplankton trends. In near-shore waters, altered coastal runoff and increased nutrient flux from land may primarily explain widespread increases in phytoplankton there. Conversely, in the open oceans, increasing surface temperatures are strengthening water column stratification, reducing nutrient flux from deeper waters and negatively influencing phytoplankton. Phytoplankton change is further affected by biological processes, such as changes in grazing regimes and nutrient cycling, but these effects are less well studied at large scales. The possible ecosystem consequences of observed phytoplankton changes include altered species composition and abundance across multiple trophic levels, effects on fisheries yield, and changing patterns of export production. We conclude that there is evidence for substantial changes in phytoplankton concentration over the past century, but the magnitude of these changes remains uncertain at a global scale; standardized long-term measurements of phytoplankton abundance over time can substantially reduce this uncertainty

Description: Climate change is impacting virtually all marine life. Adaptation strategies will require a robust understanding of the risks to species and ecosystems and how those propagate to human societies. We develop a unified and spatially explicit index to comprehensively evaluate the climate risks to marine life. Under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), almost 90% of similar to 25,000 species are at high or critical risk, with species at risk across 85% of their native distributions. One tenth of the ocean contains ecosystems where the aggregated climate risk, endemism and extinction threat of their constituent species are high. Climate change poses the greatest risk for exploited species in low-income countries with a high dependence on fisheries. Mitigating emissions (SSP1-2.6) reduces the risk for virtually all species (98.2%), enhances ecosystem stability and disproportionately benefits food-insecure populations in low-income countries. Our climate risk assessment can help prioritize vulnerable species and ecosystems for climate-adapted marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.