Description: Proxy reconstructions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) that extend beyond the period of instrumental observations have primarily focused on centennial to millennial variability rather than on seasonal to multidecadal variability. Here we present monthly-resolved records of Sr/Ca (a proxy of SST) from fossil annually-banded Diploria strigosa corals from Bonaire (southern Caribbean Sea). The individual corals provide time-windows of up to 68 years length, and the total number of 295 years of record allows for assessing the natural range of seasonal to multidecadal SST variability in the western tropical Atlantic during snapshots of the mid- to late Holocene. Comparable to modern climate, the coral Sr/Ca records reveal that mid- to late Holocene SST was characterised by clear seasonal cycles, persistent quasi-biennial and prominent interannual as well as inter- to multidecadal-scale variability. However, the magnitude of SST variations on these timescales has varied over the last 6.2 ka. The coral records show increased seasonality during the mid-Holocene consistent with climate model simulations indicating that southern Caribbean SST seasonality is induced by insolation changes on orbital timescales, whereas internal dynamics of the climate system play an important role on shorter timescales. Interannual SST variability is linked to ocean–atmosphere interactions of Atlantic and Pacific origin. Pronounced interannual variability in the western tropical Atlantic is indicated by a 2.35 ka coral, possibly related to a strengthening of the variability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene. Prominent inter- to multidecadal SST variability is evident in the coral records and slightly more pronounced in the mid-Holocene. We finally argue that our coral data provide a target for studying Holocene climate variability on seasonal and interannual to multidecadal timescales, when using further numerical models and high-resolution proxy data.

Description: Previous studies on surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2000 years (2 k) revealed a long-term cooling trend for the last millennium in comparison to the previous millennium. However, knowledge on the decadal- to centennial-scale variability in sea surface temperature and the underlying governing mechanisms throughout the period is limited. We reconstructed high-resolution continuous sea surface temperature changes over the last 2 k in the northwest Pacific margin based on the alkenone unsaturation index. Our alkenone temperature record revealed enhanced and more rapidly changing climate variability during the last millennium (approximately 1200–1850 Common Era) than during the previous millennium. Cold and hot extremes also occurred more frequently during the last millennium. The enhanced and rapidly changing climate variability appears to be associated with frequent volcanic eruptions and grand solar minima. The reconstructed surface temperature variability tends to be associated with variations in the East Asia summer monsoon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, implying that these variations are also enhanced in the last millennium than in the previous millennium.

Description: Highlights: • Climate model sensitivity experiments are performed using state-of-the-art ice sheet and freshwater reconstructions • Declining Northern Hemisphere ice sheets increase the sensitivity of the AMOC to North Atlantic meltwater discharge • Deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration decreases the sensitivity of the AMOC to North Atlantic meltwater discharge • Both effects provide a complementary perspective to existing explanations for abrupt AMOC transitions Abstract: The last deglaciation was characterized by a sequence of abrupt climate events thought to be linked to rapid changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The sequence includes a weakening of the AMOC after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which ends with an abrupt AMOC amplification at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A). This transition occurs despite persistent deglacial meltwater fluxes that counteract vigorous North Atlantic deep-water formation. Using the Earth system model COSMOS with a range of deglacial boundary conditions and reconstructed deglacial meltwater fluxes, we show that deglacial CO2 rise and ice sheet decline modulate the sensitivity of the AMOC to these fluxes. While declining ice sheets increase the sensitivity, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels tend to counteract this effect. Therefore, the occurrence of a weaker HS1 AMOC and an abrupt AMOC increase in the presence of meltwater, might be explained by these effects, as an alternative to or in combination with changes in the magnitude or routing of meltwater discharge.

Description: Previous modelling efforts have investigated climate responses to different Milankovitch forcing during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13. During this time the climate has been highly variable at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ~240 ppm. As yet, ice sheet-climate feedbacks were missing in previous studies. Therefore we use the state-of-the-art coupled climate-ice sheet model, AWI-ESM-1.2, to investigate the MIS-13 climate and corresponding Northern Hemisphere ice sheet (NHIS) evolution by performing simulations under three different astronomical configurations representing 495, 506 and 517 kyr BP. The simulated excess ice compared to present-day is mainly over the Cordillera, Arctic islands and Tibet. The global mean surface air temperature for the MIS-13 experiments have the same magnitude. At 506 kyr BP with boreal summer at perihelion, the Northern Hemisphere continents are warmer during summer than the other experiments, which could potentially inhibit the development of the ice sheets. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet is found to be especially sensitive to orbital (precession) forcing, at an intermediate CO2 level. This is probably due to its high elevation where the freezing point could be easily maintained. The other ice sheets over northeast America and Eurasia, however, are absent in our simulations. We propose that the alpine-based Cordilleran Ice Sheet is more sensitive and easier to build up than other NHISs in response to the astronomical controlled summer insolation. Dynamic surges are simulated for the Cordilleran Ice Sheet under fixed low orbital forcing. These surges due to internal ice sheet-climate feedbacks could potentially be the mechanism for the millennial scale H-like events.

Description: Highlights: • Multi-centennial oscillation with 100–200 years periods is evident in proxy data and model simulations during the Holocene. • Multi-centennial oscillation is a global signal and is more significant in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. • None of the external forcings is found to be the sole driver of the multi-centennial variability. • It indicates the multi-centennial oscillation may be due to potential internal drivers and essential feedbacks. Abstract: Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.

Description: Highlights: • Temperature anomalies for the Mid-Holocene compared to preindustrial are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions of the atmospheric model ECHAM5 • For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. • For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes. • Anomaly differences are regionally as large as the mid-Holocene minus preindustrial temperature signals. Abstract: This study evaluates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on model resolution and orography for the mid-Holocene. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 are performed with low (∼3.75°, 19 vertical levels) and high (∼1.1°, 31 vertical levels) resolution. Results are compared to the respective preindustrial runs. It is found that the large-scale temperature anomalies for the mid-Holocene (compared to preindustrial) are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions. For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes caused by the response to thermal forcing in conjunction with orographic resolution. For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. The anomaly differences (low minus high resolution version) in the Northern Hemisphere are regionally as large as the anomalous mid-Holocene temperature signals. Furthermore, they depend on the applied surface boundary conditions. We conclude that the resolution matters for the Northern Hemisphere response in mid-Holocene simulations, which should be taken into account in model-model and data-model comparisons.

Description: Though primarily driven by insolation changes associated with well-known variations in Earth's astronomical parameters, the response of the climate system during interglacials includes a diversity of feedbacks involving the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation and land ice. A thorough multi-model-data comparison is essential to assess the ability of climate models to resolve interglacial temperature trends and to help in understanding the recorded climatic signal and the underlying climate dynamics. We present the first multi-model-data comparison of transient millennial-scale temperature changes through two intervals of the Present Interglacial (PIG; 8–1.2 ka) and the Last Interglacial (LIG; 123–116.2 ka) periods. We include temperature trends simulated by 9 different climate models, alkenone-based temperature reconstructions from 117 globally distributed locations (about 45% of them within the LIG) and 12 ice-core-based temperature trends from Greenland and Antarctica (50% of them within the LIG). The definitions of these specific interglacial intervals enable a consistent inter-comparison of the two intervals because both are characterised by minor changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and more importantly by insolation trends that show clear similarities. Our analysis shows that in general the reconstructed PIG and LIG Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude cooling compares well with multi-model, mean-temperature trends for the warmest months and that these cooling trends reflect a linear response to the warmest-month insolation decrease over the interglacial intervals. The most notable exception is the strong LIG cooling trend reconstructed from Greenland ice cores that is not simulated by any of the models. A striking model-data mismatch is found for both the PIG and the LIG over large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where the data depicts negative temperature trends that are not in agreement with near zero trends in the simulations. In this area, the positive local summer insolation trend is counteracted in climate models by an enhancement of the Southern Ocean summer sea-ice cover and/or an increase in Southern Ocean upwelling. If the general picture emerging from reconstructions is realistic, then the model-data mismatch in mid and high Southern Hemisphere latitudes implies that none of the models is able to resolve the correct balance of these feedbacks, or, alternatively, that interglacial Southern Hemisphere temperature trends are driven by mechanisms which are not included in the transient simulations, such as changes in the Antarctic ice sheet or meltwater-induced changes in the overturning circulation.

Description: Due to the lack of data, the extent, thickness and drift patterns of sea ice and icebergs in the glacial Arctic remains poorly constrained. Earlier studies are contradictory proposing either a cessation of the marine cryosphere or an ice drift system operating like present-day. Here we examine the marine Arctic cryosphere during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using a high-resolution, regional ocean-sea ice model. Whereas modern sea ice in the western Arctic Basin can circulate in the Beaufort Gyre for decades, our model studies present an extreme shortcut of glacial ice drift. In more detail, our results show a clockwise sea-ice drift in the western Arctic Basin that merges into a direct trans-Arctic path towards Fram Strait. This is consistent with dated ice plow marks on the seafloor, which show the orientation of iceberg drift in this direction. Also ice-transported iron-oxide grains deposited in Fram Strait, can be matched by their chemical composition to similar grains found in potential sources from the entire circum-Arctic. The model results indicate that the pattern of Arctic sea-ice drift during the LGM is established by wind fields and seems to be a general feature of the glacial ocean. Our model results do not indicate a cessation in ice drift during the LGM.

Description: We evaluate the opening of the Drake Passage (DP), between Antarctica and South America, and associated changes in ocean circulation as forcing factor for the onset of Antarctic glaciation near the Eocene–Oligocene transition (~ 34 million years ago). In this paper this hypothesis is tested through sensitivity experiments, using numerical models for the global ocean and atmosphere and for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The response of the Antarctic continent to the opening of the DP and to the establishment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is examined. Two different climate states are reproduced with ocean gateway configurations similar to the Late Eocene and to the Late Oligocene, before and after the opening of the DP. A reduced southward heat flux and a decrease of surface temperature are found in the Antarctic realm when the DP is open. A more massive ice sheet develops on the continent in case of DP open compared to the configuration with closed DP.

Description: Millennial-scale Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability has often been invoked to explain the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. However, the underlying causes responsible for millennial-scale AMOC variability are still debated. High-resolution U37K′ and TEX86H temperature records for the last 50 kyr obtained from the tropical Northeast (NE) Atlantic (core GeoB7926-2, 20°13′N, 18°27′W, 2500 m water depth) show that distinctive DO-type subsurface (i.e. below the mixed layer: 〉20 m water depth) temperature oscillations occurred with amplitudes of up to 8 °C in the tropical NE Atlantic during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Statistical analyses reveal a positive relationship between the reconstructed substantial cooling of subsurface waters and prominent surface warming over Greenland during DO interstadials. General circulation model (GCM) simulations without external freshwater forcing, the mechanism often invoked in explaining DO events, demonstrate similar anti-phase correlations between AMOC and pronounced NE Atlantic subsurface temperatures under glacial climate conditions. Together with our paleoproxy dataset, this suggests that the vertical temperature structure and associated changes in AMOC were key elements governing DO events during the last glacial.