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  • 2000-2004  (3)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 65 (2000), S. 119-135 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary An improved statistical-dynamical downscaling method for the regionalization of large-scale climate analyses or simulations is introduced. The method is based on the disaggregation of a multi-year time-series of large-scale meteorological data into multi-day episodes of quasi-stationary circulation. The episodes are subsequently grouped into a defined number of classes. A regional model is used to simulate the evolution of weather during the most typical episode of each class. These simulations consider the effects of the regional topography. Finally, the regional model results are statistically weighted with the climatological frequencies of the respective circulation classes in order to provide regional climate patterns. The statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure is applied to large-scale analyses for a 12-year climate period 1981–1992. The performance of the new method is demonstrated for winter precipitation in the Alpine region. With the help of daily precipitation analyses it was possible to validate the results and to assess the different sources of errors. It appeared that the main error originates from the regional model, whereas the error of the procedure itself was relatively unimportant. This new statistical-dynamical downscaling method turned out to be an efficient alternative to the commonly used method of nesting a regional model continuously within a general circulation model (dynamical downscaling).
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 66 (2000), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary Climatic changes of summer temperature and precipitation in the greater Alpine region are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971–2000 and 2071–2100, summer months only) taken from the results of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are compared with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by 3 to 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Increasing precipitation is simulated only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe. The results are compared with observed climate trends for the last decades and results of other regional climate change estimations. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends (including ours) have a number of common features. However, there are also climate change estimates of other groups which completely contradict our results.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
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    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergouvernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kongdom and New York, US, 881 p., ISBN: 0521 01495 6
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Book , peerRev
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