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  • 1
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    Frequency-Magnitude relationships for Underwater Landslides of the Mediterranean Sea (2017)
    In:  [Poster] In: AGU Fall Meeting 2017, 11.12 - 15.12.2017, New Orleans, USA .
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-05-31
    Description: An updated version of the submarine landslide database of the Mediterranean Sea contains 955 MTDs and 2608 failure scars showing that submarine landslides are ubiquitous features along Mediterranean continental margins. Their distribution reveals that major deltaic wedges display the larger submarine landslides, while seismically active margins are characterized by relatively small failures. In all regions, landslide size distributions display power law scaling for landslides 〉 1 km3. We find consistent differences on the exponent of the power law depending on the geodynamic setting. Active margins present steep slopes of the frequency-magnitude relationship whereas passive margins tend to display gentler slopes. This pattern likely responds to the common view that tectonically active margins have numerous but small failures, while passive margins have larger but fewer failures. Available age information suggests that failures exceeding 1000 km3 are infrequent and may recur every ~40 kyr. Smaller failures that can still cause significant damage might be relatively frequent, with failures 〉 1 km3 likely recurring every 40 years. The database highlights that our knowledge of submarine landslide activity with time is limited to a few tens of thousand years. Available data suggest that submarine landslides may preferentially occur during lowstand periods, but no firm conclusion can be made on this respect, as only 149 landslides (out of 955 included in the database) have relatively accurate age determinations. The timing and regional changes in the frequency-magnitude distribution suggest that sedimentation patterns and pore pressure development have had a major role in triggering slope failures and control the sediment flux from mass wasting to the deep basin.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Poster
  • 2
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    A New Approximate Method for Quantifying Tsunami Maximum Inundation Height Probability (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: Regional and global tsunami hazard analysis requires simplified and efficient methods for estimating the tsunami inundation height and its related uncertainty. One such approach is the amplification factor (AF) method. Amplification factors describe the relation between offshore wave height and the maximum inundation height, as predicted by linearized plane wave models employed for incident waves with different wave characteristics. In this study, a new amplification factor method is developed that takes into account the offshore bathymetry proximal to the coastal site. The present AFs cover the North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean (NEAM) region. The model is the first general approximate model that quantifies inundation height uncertainty. Uncertainty quantification is carried out by analyzing the inundation height variability in more than 500 high-resolution inundation simulations at six different coastal sites. The inundation simulations are undertaken with different earthquake sources in order to produce different wave period and polarity. We show that the probability density of the maximum inundation height can be modeled with a log-normal distribution, whose median is quite well predicted by the AF. It is further demonstrated that the associated maximum inundation height uncertainties are significant and must be accounted for in tsunami hazard analysis. The application to the recently developed TSUMAPS-NEAM probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is presented as a use case.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3227–3246
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources (2018)
    The Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-20
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Description: Published
    Description: 219-244
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 4
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    NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18): online data of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model for the NEAM Region from the TSUMAPS-NEAM project (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-10-01
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: web product
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  • 5
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Description: Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1158–1198
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    NEAMTHM18 Documentation: the making of the TSUMAPS-NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM). In this online data product, the hazard results are provided by hazard curves calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI), distributed in the North-East Atlantic (1,076 POIs), the Mediterranean Sea (1,130 POIs), and the Black Sea (137 POIs) at an average spacing of ~20 km. For each POI, hazard curves are given for the mean, 2nd, 16th, 50th, 84th, and 98th percentiles. Maps derived from hazard curves are Probability maps for Maximum Inundation Heights (MIH) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 meters; Hazard maps for Average Return Periods (ARP) of 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, 10,000 years. For each map, precalculated displays are provided for the mean, the 16th percentile, and the 84th percentile. All data are also made accessible through an interactive web mapper and through Open Geospatial Consortium standard protocols. The model was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26).
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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