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  • 1
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    Unveiling assumptions through interdisciplinary scrutiny: Observations from the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689) (2020)
    Kreuter, Judith ; Matzner, Nils ; Baatz, Christian ; [et al.]
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: The interdisciplinary exchange in climate engineering research offers a unique opportunity to make assumptions more explicit for such research projects. While making assumptions explicit is the standard in all disciplinary sciences, some assumptions in the context of societal challenges can only be usefully unveiled, discussed, and verified from the perspective of other research disciplines. Results from successful interdisciplinary collaborations are then more accessible and more generalizable to actors beyond the confines of the academic community. We aim to illustrate how interdisciplinary exchange helps to unveil assumptions in research endeavors and why this is important for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. We therefore follow different stages of the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689), which we use as an example case of a successful interdisciplinary project. SPP 1689 focused on risks, challenges, and opportunities of Climate Engineering from the perspectives of numerous disciplines. Major results were that the initial assessments of technologies had to be sobered, the consideration of trade-offs is crucial for the potential assessment, and governance issues appeared larger than previously considered. From the reflections of SPP 1689, we conclude with three lessons learned: (1) The project profited from egalitarian organizational structures and communicative practices, preventing the predominance from single disciplines. (2) Within the project continuous efforts were undertaken to foster interdisciplinary understanding. In addition, the flexible project structure allowed for the accommodation of research needs arising as a result of these exchanges. (3) SPP 1689 offered early career researchers a platform for professional exchange on common challenges and best practices of being a part of an interdisciplinary research project.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Concordia University http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002914
    Description: Simon Fraser University (CA)
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:304.28 ; Climate engineering ; Interdisciplinarity ; Assumptions ; Communication ; Carbon dioxide removal ; Radiation management
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
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    Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: One key contribution to the wide range of 1.5 degrees C carbon budgets among recent studies is the non-CO2 climate forcing scenario uncertainty. Based on a partitioning of historical non-CO2 forcing, we show that currently there is a net negative non-CO2 forcing from fossil fuel combustion (FFC), and a net positive non-CO2 climate forcing from land-use change (LUC) and agricultural activities. We perform a set of future simulations in which we prescribed a 1.5 degrees C temperature stabilisation trajectory, and diagnosed the resulting 1.5 degrees C carbon budgets. Using the historical partitioning, we then prescribed adjusted non-CO2 forcing scenarios consistent with our model's simulated decrease in FFC CO2 emissions. We compared the diagnosed carbon budgets from these adjusted scenarios to those resulting from the default RCP scenario's non-CO2 forcing, and to a scenario in which proportionality between future CO2 and non-CO2 forcing is assumed. We find a wide range of carbon budget estimates across scenarios, with the largest budget emerging from the scenario with assumed proportionality of CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. Furthermore, our adjusted-RCP scenarios produce carbon budgets that are smaller than the corresponding default RCP scenarios. Our results suggest that ambitious mitigation scenarios will likely be characterised by an increasing contribution of non-CO2 forcing, and that an assumption of continued proportionality between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing would lead to an overestimate of the remaining carbon budget. Maintaining such proportionality under ambitious fossil fuel mitigation would require mitigation of non-CO2 emissions at a rate that is substantially faster than found in the standard RCP scenarios.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Unveiling assumptions through interdisciplinary scrutiny: Observations from the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689) (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The interdisciplinary exchange in climate engineering research offers a unique opportunity to make assumptions more explicit for such research projects. While making assumptions explicit is the standard in all disciplinary sciences, some assumptions in the context of societal challenges can only be usefully unveiled, discussed, and verified from the perspective of other research disciplines. Results from successful interdisciplinary collaborations are then more accessible and more generalizable to actors beyond the confines of the academic community. We aim to illustrate how interdisciplinary exchange helps to unveil assumptions in research endeavors and why this is important for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. We therefore follow different stages of the German Priority Program on Climate Engineering (SPP 1689), which we use as an example case of a successful interdisciplinary project. SPP 1689 focused on risks, challenges, and opportunities of Climate Engineering from the perspectives of numerous disciplines. Major results were that the initial assessments of technologies had to be sobered, the consideration of trade-offs is crucial for the potential assessment, and governance issues appeared larger than previously considered. From the reflections of SPP 1689, we conclude with three lessons learned: (1) The project profited from egalitarian organizational structures and communicative practices, preventing the predominance from single disciplines. (2) Within the project continuous efforts were undertaken to foster interdisciplinary understanding. In addition, the flexible project structure allowed for the accommodation of research needs arising as a result of these exchanges. (3) SPP 1689 offered early career researchers a platform for professional exchange on common challenges and best practices of being a part of an interdisciplinary research project.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2 (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Klima retten mit Kohlendioxid-Entnahme? (2022)
    DWD
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-05
    Description: In diesem Beitrag werden die verschiedenen Methoden der Kohlendioxid Entnahme (Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR) beschrieben, deren technologische Bereitstellung überprüft und Potenzial, Kosten und Nebenwirkungen anhand der neuesten Literatur diskutiert. Die Methoden werden darin unterschieden, ob sie Kohlenstoff durch chemische oder biologische Prozesse aus der Atmosphäre entnehmen, und ob sie diesen dann an Land, im Ozean oder in Gesteinsformationen speichern. Summary In this chapter different Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods are described. Based on the most recent literature, their respective tech readiness, potential, cost and side effects are discussed. The methods are distinct by their carbon uptake methodology, either through chemical or biological processes, as well as by the choice of storage location, either on land, in the ocean or in geological storage facilities.
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - without review
  • 7
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    Calcifying Phytoplankton Demonstrate an Enhanced Role in Greenhouse Atmospheric CO2 Regulation (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The impact of calcifying phytoplankton on atmospheric CO2 concentration is determined by a number of factors, including their degree of ecological success as well as the buffering capacity of the ocean/marine sediment system. The relative importance of these factors has changed over Earth's history and this has implications for atmospheric CO2 and climate regulation. We explore some of these implications with four “Strangelove” experiments: two in which soft-tissue production and calcification is stopped, and two in which only calcite production is forced to stop, in idealized icehouse and greenhouse climates. We find that in the icehouse climate the loss of calcifiers compensates the atmospheric CO2 impact of the loss of all phytoplankton by roughly one-sixth. But in the greenhouse climate the loss of calcifiers compensates the loss of all phytoplankton by about half. This increased impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration is due to the combination of higher rates of pelagic calcification due to warmer temperatures and weaker buffering due to widespread acidification in the greenhouse ocean. However, the greenhouse atmospheric temperature response per unit of CO2 change to removing ocean soft-tissue production and calcification is only one-fourth that in an icehouse climate, owing to the logarithmic radiative forcing dependency on atmospheric CO2 thereby reducing the climate feedback of mass extinction. This decoupling of carbon cycle and temperature sensitivities offers a mechanism to explain the dichotomy of both enhanced climate stability and destabilization of the carbonate compensation depth in greenhouse climates.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Navigating Potential Hype and Opportunity in Governing Marine Carbon Removal (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: As the technical and political challenges of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches become more apparent, the oceans may be the new “blue” frontier for carbon drawdown strategies in climate governance. Drawing on lessons learnt from the way terrestrial carbon dioxide removal emerged, we explore increasing overall attention to marine environments and mCDR projects, and how this could manifest in four entwined knowledge systems and governance sectors. We consider how developments within and between these “frontiers” could result in different futures—where hype and over-promising around marine carbon drawdown could enable continued time-buying for the carbon economy without providing significant removals, or where reforms to modeling practices, policy development, innovation funding, and legal governance could seek co-benefits between ocean protection, economy, and climate.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Using cumulative carbon budgets and corporate carbon disclosure to inform ambitious corporate emissions targets and long‐term mitigation pathways (2022)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: With increasing pressure for climate action, commitments to setting scientifically supported emissions targets have become more common among firms. The target-setting methods currently endorsed by the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) use emission pathways that are aligned with 1.5°C and well-below 2°C long-term temperature goals to inform near-term corporate targets. However, most of these scenarios lead to a temperature overshoot, followed by a return to the temperature goal achieved via net-negative emissions in the second half of this century. When used to inform near-term (e.g., 2030) corporate targets, the result is a set of targets that are aligned with an overshoot of a temperature target, with no explicit long-term commitment to using negative emissions technologies to reverse this. To decrease the risk of this misalignment with the long-term temperature goal, we propose an alternative approach that derives corporate targets directly from the remaining global cumulative carbon budget. We illustrate this approach using global Scope 1 emissions disclosed by public firms in 2019 to estimate corporate carbon budgets and construct idealized emissions-reduction pathways that are consistent with the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C and well-below 2°C. While firms, or their sectors, may choose varying mitigation pathways aligned with either global temperature limit, consistency with remaining carbon budgets requires that any delayed mitigation action in the near term is followed by more rapid emissions reductions in subsequent years. This study emphasizes the need for a more precautionary and robust approach to corporate target setting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    Substantial regional climate change expected following cessation of CO2 emissions (2022)
    IOP publishing
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The zero emissions commitment (ZEC) is the expected temperature change following the cessation of anthropogenic emissions of climate altering gases and aerosols. Recent model intercomparison work has suggested that global average ZEC for CO2 is close to zero. However there has thus far been no effort to explore how temperature is expected to change at spatial scales smaller than the global average. Here we analyze the output of nine full complexity Earth System Models which carried out standardized ZEC experiments to quantify the ZEC from CO2. The models suggest that substantial temperature change following cessation of emissions of CO2 can be expected at large and regional spatial scales. Large scale patterns of change closely follow long established patterns seen during modern climate change, with higher variability and more change as one approaches the polar regions, and with more change over land than ocean. The sign of temperature change (warming or cooling) varies by model and climatic zone. At the regional scale patterns of change are far more complex and show little consistency between different models. Analysis of model output suggest that for most models these changes far exceed pre-industrial internal variability, suggesting either higher climate variability, continuing changes to climate dynamics or both. Overall substantial regional changes in climate are expected following cessation of CO2 emissions but the pattern, magnitude and sign of these changes remains highly uncertain.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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