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  • 1
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    A first appraisal of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the largest fault systems in the westernmost Mediterranean (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-22
    Description: The westernmost Mediterranean hosts part of the plate boundary between the European and African tectonic plates. Based on the scattered instrumental seismicity, this boundary has been traditionally interpreted as a wide zone of diffuse deformation. However, recent seismic images and seafloor mapping studies support that most of the plate convergence may be accommodated in a few tectonic structures, rather than in a broad region. Historical earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 〉 6 and historical tsunamis support that the low-to-moderate instrumental seismicity might also have led to underestimation of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the area. We evaluate the largest active faults of the westernmost Mediterranean: the reverse Alboran Ridge, and the strike-slip Carboneras, Yusuf and Al-Idrissi fault systems. For the first time, we use a dense grid of modern seismic data to characterize the entire dimensions of the main fault systems, accurately describe the geometry of these structures and estimate their seismic source parameters. Tsunami scenarios have been tested based on 3D-surfaces and seismic source parameters, using both uniform and heterogeneous slip distributions. The comparison of our results with previous studies, based on limited information on the fault geometry and kinematics, indicates that accurate fault geometries and heterogeneous slip distributions are needed to properly assess the seismic and tsunamigenic potential in this area. Based on fault scaling relations, the four fault systems have a large seismogenic potential, being able to generate earthquakes with Mw 〉 7. The reverse Alboran Ridge Fault System has the largest tsunamigenic potential, being able to generate a tsunami wave amplitude greater than 3 m in front of the coasts of Southern Spain and Northern Africa.
    Description: Published
    Description: 106749
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Western Mediterranean ; Seismogenic potential ; Tsunamigenic potential ; Numerical modelling ; Active faults ; Active seismic data ; 04.04. Geology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy (2021)
    SiF
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-14
    Description: Destructive tsunamis are most often generated by large earthquakes occurring at subduction interfaces, but also other “atypical” sources—defined as crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources altogether—may cause significant tsunami threats. Tsunamis may indeed be generated by different sources, such as earthquakes, submarine or coastal landslides, volcano-related phenomena, and atmospheric perturbations. The consideration of atypical sources is important worldwide, but it is especially prominent in complex tectonic settings such as the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, or the Indonesian archipelago. The recent disasters in Indonesia in 2018, caused by the Palu-Sulawesi magnitude Mw 7.5 crustal earthquake and by the collapse of the Anak-Krakatau volcano, recall the importance of such sources. Dealing with atypical sources represents a scientific, technical, and computational challenge, which depends on the capability of quantifying and managing uncertainty efficiently and of reducing it with accurate physical modelling. Here, we first introduce the general framework in which tsunami threats are treated, and then we review the current status and the expected future development of tsunami hazard quantifications and of the tsunami warning systems in Italy, with a specific focus on the treatment of atypical sources. In Italy, where the memory of historical atypical events like the 1908 Messina earthquake or the relatively recent 2002 Stromboli tsunami is still vivid, specific attention has been indeed dedicated to the progressive development of innovative strategies to deal with such atypical sources. More specifically, we review the (national) hazard analyses and their application for coastal planning, as well as the two operating tsunami warning systems: the national warning system for seismically generated tsunamis (SiAM), whose upstream component—the CAT-INGV—is also a Tsunami Service Provider of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) coordinated by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group established by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the local warning system for tsunamis generated by volcanic slides along the Sciara del Fuoco of Stromboli volcano. Finally, we review the state of knowledge about other potential tsunami sources that may generate significant tsunamis for the Italian coasts, but that are not presently considered in existing tsunami warning systems. This may be considered the first step towards their inclusion in the national tsunami hazard and warning programs.
    Description: Published
    Description: 69–144
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Characterization of fault plane and coseismic slip for the 2 May 2020, Mw 6.6 Cretan Passage earthquake from tide gauge tsunami data and moment tensor solutions (2021)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-15
    Description: We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
    Description: We present a source solution for the tsunami generated by the Mw 6.6 earthquake that occurred on 2 May 2020, about 80 km offshore south of Crete, in the Cretan Passage, on the shallow portion of the Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ). The tide gauges recorded this local tsunami on the southern coast of Crete and Kasos island. We used Crete tsunami observations to constrain the geometry and orientation of the causative fault, the rupture mechanism, and the slip amount. We first modelled an ensemble of synthetic tsunami waveforms at the tide gauge locations, produced for a range of earthquake parameter values as constrained by some of the available moment tensor solutions. We allow for both a splay and a back-thrust fault, corresponding to the two nodal planes of the moment tensor solution. We then measured the misfit between the synthetic and the Ierapetra observed marigram for each source parameter set. Our results identify the shallow, steeply dipping back-thrust fault as the one producing the lowest misfit to the tsunami data. However, a rupture on a lower angle fault, possibly a splay fault, with a sinistral component due to the oblique convergence on this segment of the HASZ, cannot be completely ruled out. This earthquake reminds us that the uncertainty regarding potential earthquake mechanisms at a specific location remains quite significant. In this case, for example, it is not possible to anticipate if the next event will be one occurring on the subduction interface, on a splay fault, or on a back-thrust, which seems the most likely for the event under investigation. This circumstance bears important consequences because back-thrust and splay faults might enhance the tsunamigenic potential with respect to the subduction interface due to their steeper dip. Then, these results are relevant for tsunami forecasting in the framework of both the long-term hazard assessment and the early warning systems.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3713–3730
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Tsunami, Mediterranean, Early Warning ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Sensitivity of Tsunami Scenarios to Complex Fault Geometry and Heterogeneous Slip Distribution: Case‐Studies for SW Iberia and NW Morocco (2021)
    Wiley-AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: The SW Iberian margin is one of the most seismogenic and tsunamigenic areas in W-Europe, where large historical and instrumental destructive events occurred. To evaluate the sensitivity of the tsunami impact on the coast of SW Iberia and NW Morocco to the fault geometry and slip distribution for local earthquakes, we carried out a set of tsunami simulations considering some of the main known active crustal faults in the region: the Gorringe Bank (GBF), Marquês de Pombal (MPF), Horseshoe (HF), North Coral Patch (NCPF) and South Coral Patch (SCPF) thrust faults, and the Lineament South strike-slip fault. We started by considering for all of them relatively simple planar faults featuring with uniform slip distribution; we then used a more complex 3D fault geometry for the faults constrained with a large 2D multichannel seismic dataset (MPF, HF, NCPF, and SCPF); and finally, we used various heterogeneous slip distributions for the HF. Our results show that using more complex 3D fault geometries and slip distributions, the peak wave height at the coastline can double compared to simpler tsunami source scenarios from planar fault geometries. Existing tsunami hazard models in the region use homogeneous slip distributions on planar faults as initial conditions for tsunami simulations and therefore underestimate tsunami hazard. Complex 3D fault geometries and non-uniform slip distribution should be considered in future tsunami hazard updates. The tsunami simulations also support the finding that submarine canyons attenuate the wave height reaching the coastline, while submarine ridges and shallow shelves have the opposite effect.
    Description: Published
    Description: e2021JB022127
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 2TR. Ricostruzione e modellazione della struttura crostale
    Description: 2IT. Laboratori analitici e sperimentali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunami ; earthquake ; complex fault geometry ; heterogeneous slip distribution ; tsunami numerical modeling ; seismic and tsunami hazard ; 04.04. Geology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Tsunami Source of the 2021 Mw 8.1 Raoul Island Earthquake From DART and Tide‐Gauge Data Inversion (2021)
    Wiley-AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: The tsunami source of the 2021 MW 8.1 Raoul Island earthquake in the Kermadec subduction zone was estimated by inverting the tsunami signals recorded by Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) bottom pressure sensors and coastal tide-gauges. The main asperity aftershock distribution and rapid back-projection analysis. Three earthquakes of M ∼8 or larger which also produced moderate tsunamis happened in the 20th century in the same portion of the subduction zone. This is the first great tsunamigenic event captured by the new New Zealand DART network in the South West Pacific, which proved valuable to estimate a robust image of the tsunami source. We also show a first proof of concept of the capability of this network to reduce the uncertainty associated with tsunami forecasting and to increase the lead time available for evacuation for future alerts.
    Description: Published
    Description: e2021GL094449
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning (2021)
    Nature PG
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-15
    Description: Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs-false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5677
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    La formazione del Personale della Sala di Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami di Roma (2022)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-06
    Description: Miscellanea INGV - Progetto “Sale Operative Integrate e Reti di monitoraggio del futuro: l’INGV 2.0”. Report finale
    Description: L’INGV è Centro di Competenza per i fenomeni sismici, vulcanici e i maremoti per il Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Nazionale (DPC). Nell’ambito delle attività previste dall’Accordo Quadro DPCINGV 20122021 (AQ vigente), l’INGV svolge attività di sorveglianza tecnicoscientifica sulla sismicità del territorio nazionale, sui fenomeni vulcanici e sui maremoti, finalizzata ai compiti di protezione civile, in modo ininterrotto (H24 per 365 giorni l’anno). Tale attività viene realizzata con uno specifico assetto organizzativo, che consente la trasmissione in tempo reale verso il DPC di tutte le informazioni riguardanti eventi e rischi sismici, vulcanici e da maremoto di interesse per il Dipartimento stesso. La sorveglianza sismica del territorio nazionale e delle aree limitrofe è in carico all’Osservatorio Nazionale Terremoti (ONT), insieme alle comunicazioni relative agli eventi in area mediterranea e nel mondo. La sorveglianza delle aree vulcaniche campane (Campi Flegrei, Ischia, Vesuvio) e siciliane (Etna, Stromboli, Vulcano, altre isole Eolie, Pantelleria) sono rispettivamente in carico all’Osservatorio Vesuviano (OV) e all’Osservatorio Etneo (OE). Dal gennaio 2017 è diventata ufficialmente operativa anche l’attività di monitoraggio e il Servizio di allerta dei maremoti di origine sismica (Centro Allerta Tsunami CAT) con l’introduzione nella Sala INGV di Roma di una nuova unità di personale. In fase sperimentale, fino alla fine del 2016, e per i primi mesi di operatività, il personale per il Servizio di Allerta Tsunami è stato scelto all’interno del gruppo di turnisti che da anni svolgeva il Servizio di Sorveglianza Sismica; successivamente, è stato reclutato e formato nuovo personale in grado di svolgere entrambi i Servizi. A partire dal 2017 e nei due anni successivi sono stati attivati, quindi, i corsi per la formazione di nuovi Turnisti e Funzionari per i servizi di Sorveglianza Sismica e di Allerta Tsunami ed anche per i reperibili di Sala [Quintiliani et al., 2020]. La formazione del personale che partecipa al Servizio di Sorveglianza Sismica è prevista nei Piani di attività annuali relativi all’Allegato A dell’AQ vigente, tematica “Sorveglianza sismica” e quella del personale che partecipa alle attività del CAT nella tematica “Centro Allerta Tsunami (CAT)”. Inoltre, il Progetto “S.O.I.R. monitoraggio futuro” ha tra le sue finalità quella della formazione del personale delle Sale Operative INGV, essendo il WP4 “Formazione” uno dei sei working package del progetto espressamente dedicato a questo.
    Description: Published
    Description: 150-155
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Keywords: Formazione turnisti ; Servizio di Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami di Roma ; 04. Solid Earth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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