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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Earth's Future Vol. 9, No. 9 ( 2021-09)
    Details
    In: Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 9, No. 9 ( 2021-09)
    Abstract: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models project changes to the annual cycle of many hydroclimate variables, many of which are more significant than annual mean changes In the continental United States, there are significant earlier shifts in the annual cycle in a high emissions scenario Significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest‐emissions scenario
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2328-4277 , 2328-4277
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002019
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2746403-9
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Curious Case of Projected Twenty-First-Century Drying but Greening in the American West
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 21 ( 2017-11), p. 8689-8710
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 21 ( 2017-11), p. 8689-8710
    Abstract: Climate models project significant twenty-first-century declines in water availability over the American West from anthropogenic warming. However, the physical mechanisms underpinning this response are poorly characterized, as are the uncertainties from vegetation’s modulation of evaporative losses. To understand the drivers and uncertainties of future hydroclimate in the American West, a 35-member single model ensemble is used to examine the response of summer soil moisture and runoff to anthropogenic forcing. Widespread dry season soil moisture declines occur across the region despite increases in total water-year precipitation and ubiquitous increases in plant water-use efficiency. These modeled soil moisture declines are initially forced by significant snowpack losses that directly diminish summer soil water, even in regions where water-year precipitation increases. When snowpack priming is coupled with a warming- and CO 2 -induced shift in phenology and increased primary production, widespread increases in leaf area further reduces summer soil moisture and runoff by outpacing decreased stomatal conductance from high CO 2 . The net effects lead to the co-occurrence of both a “greener” and “drier” future across the western United States. Because simulated vegetation exerts a large influence on predicted changes in water availability in the American West, these findings highlight the importance of reducing the substantial uncertainties in the ecological processes increasingly incorporated into numerical Earth system models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019
    In:  Nature Vol. 569, No. 7754 ( 2019-5), p. 59-65
    Details
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 569, No. 7754 ( 2019-5), p. 59-65
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2020
    In:  Science Vol. 368, No. 6488 ( 2020-04-17), p. 314-318
    Details
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 368, No. 6488 ( 2020-04-17), p. 314-318
    Abstract: Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9600
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
    SSG: 11
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    ENSO-driven coupled megadroughts in North and South America over the last millennium
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10), p. 739-744
    Details
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10), p. 739-744
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00819-9
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2396648-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2405323-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2019
    In:  Science Advances Vol. 5, No. 7 ( 2019-07-05)
    Details
    In: Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 5, No. 7 ( 2019-07-05)
    Abstract: Multidecadal “megadroughts” were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2375-2548
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax0087
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2810933-8
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2022
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 119, No. 10 ( 2022-03-08)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, No. 10 ( 2022-03-08)
    Abstract: Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs ( P 〈 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where 〉 20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2114069119
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2020
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 117, No. 29 ( 2020-07-21), p. 16816-16823
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 29 ( 2020-07-21), p. 16816-16823
    Abstract: South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002411117
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Precipitation, Temperature, and Teleconnection Signals across the Combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 18 ( 2017-09-15), p. 7141-7155
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 18 ( 2017-09-15), p. 7141-7155
    Abstract: The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson’s correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the AMO. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, the findings herein confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal time scales over the twentieth century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0766.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Revisiting the Leading Drivers of Pacific Coastal Drought Variability in the Contiguous United States
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 31, No. 1 ( 2018-01-01), p. 25-43
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 31, No. 1 ( 2018-01-01), p. 25-43
    Abstract: Coastal droughts that simultaneously affect California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but they have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire and agriculture). To better understand these events, historical observations are used to investigate 1) drought variability along the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States and 2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October–March) precipitation variability along the Pacific coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounting for & gt;40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode (~20% of precipitation variability) characterized by antiphased moisture anomalies across 40°N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895 to 2016 (clustering in the 1920s–1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40°N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts but not north of this boundary, where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful seasonal predictions. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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