Description: Dynamics of Baltic ecosystems and causes of their variability are discussed and special attention is paid to the use of ecological models as a tool for research and management. - The causes of the observed changes in salinity, temperature, and oxygen of the deep water of the Baltic Sea are reviewed and discussed. - The work has led to the formulation of a hypothesis by which it appears possible to explain the oxygen development and the long-term development of other hydrographic components. The analyses indicate that the change of the level of the interface from - 80 m at the beginning of the century to about - 60 m today has increased the quantity of dead organic matter sinking down through the halocline as a consequence of the increased area of contact between the surface water and the deep water. The increased contact area has led to a corresponding increase in all fluxes through the halocline driven by turbulent gradient diffusion including an increase in the upward flux of nutrients. This has led to a fertilization of the surface water which has increased organic production in the surface zone. This in turn increases the amount of dead organic matter supplied to the deep water. At the same time the temperature increase has increased the rate of oxygen consumption. The net result is that oxygen in the deep water is being consumed at a much higher rate today than previously. lt is estimated that the rate of consumption has increased about 110% since the end of the last century. This implies an increase in the primary production of about 40%. - The supply of oxygen to the deep water has increased primarily as a consequence of the increase in the area of contact between the surface water and the deep water, and secondly as a consequence of an increase in the vertical oxygen concentration gradient. However, the rate of increase of supply has been smaller than the rate of increase of the consumption. The relative difference between the consumption and the supply has increased from 0 at equilibrium conditions at the end of the last century to about 10% today. Although this change in the balance between supply and consumption appears to be marginal, it is nevertheless sufficient to bring about the dramatic decrease of the oxygen concentration in the deep water from about 3 ml/l at the end of the last century to close to O ml/l today. - The model introduced represents a preliminary step towards a Baltic model, which necessarily must take the changing position of the halocline and related effects into account.