Publication Date:
2023-08-24
Description:
Estimating the probability of the hazardous geomagnetic storms is important to modern human society, since the geomagnetic storms have potential to disrupt or damage the navigation and communication systems that the modern human society relies on. A new index IpsDst, defined as the mean value of the Dst index during the main phase of geomagnetic storms, is found to be more indicative of the hazard of the geomagnetic storms than the commonly used Dst index. Thus, we use the new index IpsDst, instead of the commonly used Dst minimum, to estimate the probability of the hazardous geomagnetic storms from 1957 to 2016 by employing the extreme value theory. Our results show that the shape parameter is negative, which indicates that the IpsDst has an upper bound, and then the occurrence possibility and the return level of the hazardous geomagnetic storms are calculated. The return level of the Quebec event is about 312 years, which indicates that the Quebec-like events are very rare. The return level of the events on 6 November 2001 and 30 October 2003 (Halloween event) is about 1 to 2 decades, which indicates that we should take precautions for this kind of events. The difference between our results and previous results based on Dst minimum are also discussed.
Language:
English
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
