Note: Risk Analysis of Water Pollution -- Contents -- Preface to the Second Edition -- Preface to the First Edition -- 1 Water Resources: Quantity and Quality -- 1.1 Water Pollution and Risk Analysis -- 1.1.1 A Systemic View of Water Resources -- 1.1.1.1 Examples of Application -- 1.1.2 The New Paradigm of Water Quality -- 1.1.2.1 Human Well-being and Health -- 1.1.2.2 Ecological Impacts and Biodiversity -- 1.1.2.3 Fishing and Oyster Farming -- 1.1.2.4 Tourism -- 1.1.2.5 Algal and Chlorophyllic Photosynthesis -- 1.1.2.6 Zooplankton Growth -- 1.1.2.7 Bacteria -- 1.1.3 Integrated Water Resources Management -- 1.2 Water Pollution in Transboundary Regions -- 1.2.1 The UNECE Convention (Helsinki, 1992) -- 1.3 The EU Water Framework Directive -- 1.4 Uncertainties in Water Resources Management -- 1.5 Environmental Risk Assessment and Management -- 1.6 Aim and Organisation of the Book -- 1.7 Questions and Problems - Chapter 1 -- 2 Risk Identification -- 2.1 Definition of Risk -- 2.2 Typology of Risks and the Precautionary Principle -- 2.2.1 Unacceptable versus Acceptable Risks -- 2.2.2 Controllable versus Uncontrollable Risks -- 2.2.3 Gradual versus Sudden Risks -- 2.2.4 The Precautionary Principle -- 2.3 Uncertainties in Water Pollution Problems -- 2.3.1 Aleatory Uncertainties or Randomness -- 2.3.2 Epistemic or Man-induced Uncertainties -- 2.4 Water Quality Specifications -- 2.4.1 Water Quality Standards -- 2.4.2 Effluent Standards -- 2.5 Probabilistic Risk and Reliability -- 2.6 Fuzzy Risk and Reliability -- 2.7 Questions and Problems - Chapter 2 -- 3 Risk Quantification -- 3.1 Stochastic Approach -- 3.1.1 Direct Evaluation -- 3.1.1.1 Margin of Safety -- 3.1.1.2 The Safety Factor -- 3.1.2 Second-Moment Formulation -- 3.1.3 Frequency Analysis of Data -- 3.1.3.1 Probability Distribution of Extremes -- 3.1.3.2 Analysis of Frequency. , 3.1.4 Stochastic Modelling -- 3.1.4.1 Deterministic Modelling -- 3.1.4.2 Stochastic Modelling -- 3.1.5 Monte Carlo Simulation -- 3.2 Fuzzy Set Theory -- 3.2.1 Fuzzy Regression -- 3.2.1.1 Fuzzy Regression as an Extension of Interval Analysis -- 3.2.1.2 Statistical Regression -- 3.2.1.3 Interval Regression -- 3.2.1.4 Fuzzy Regression -- 3.2.2 Fuzzy Modelling -- 3.3 Time Dependence and System Risk -- 3.3.1 Failure and Reliability Functions -- 3.3.2 Failure Rate and Hazard Function -- 3.3.3 Expected Life -- 3.3.4 System Risk and Reliability -- 3.3.4.1 Series Systems -- 3.3.4.2 Parallel Systems -- 3.4 Questions and Problems - Chapter 3 -- 4 Risk Assessment of Environmental Water Quality -- 4.1 Risk in Coastal Water Pollution -- 4.1.1 Uncertainties in Coastal Water Quality Processes -- 4.1.2 Mathematical Modelling -- 4.1.2.1 Molecular Diffusion -- 4.1.2.2 Turbulent Diffusion -- 4.1.2.3 Turbulent Dispersion -- 4.1.2.4 Growth Kinetics -- 4.1.2.5 Coastal Circulation -- 4.1.3 Random Walk Simulation -- 4.1.4 Dispersion by Wind-generated Currents -- 4.2 Risk in River Water Quality -- 4.2.1 Introduction -- 4.2.2 Mathematical Modelling and Simulation -- 4.2.2.1 Physically Based Mathematical Models -- 4.2.2.2 Numerical Simulation -- 4.2.3 Time Series of Water Quality Data -- 4.2.4 Risk Assessment -- 4.3 Risk in Groundwater Contamination -- 4.3.1 Importance of Groundwater Resources -- 4.3.1.1 Groundwater in the Hydrological Cycle -- 4.3.1.2 Steps in Groundwater Development -- 4.3.2 Properties and Field Investigation of Groundwater Systems -- 4.3.2.1 Water in Geological Formations -- 4.3.2.2 Space and Time Scales -- 4.3.3 Aquifer Hydraulic Properties -- 4.3.3.1 Scale Effects -- 4.3.3.2 Measurements and Field Investigations -- 4.3.4 Conceptual and Mathematical Models -- 4.3.4.1 Conceptual Models and Flow Equations -- 4.3.4.2 Analytical Solutions. , 4.3.5 Spatial Variability and Stochastic Modelling -- 4.3.5.1 Uncertainties in Aquifer Contamination Studies -- 4.3.5.2 Stochastic Description -- 4.3.6 Risk Assessment of Groundwater Pollution -- 4.3.6.1 Immiscible Fluids -- 4.3.6.2 Solute Transport and Random Walks -- 4.4 Questions and Problems - Chapter 4 -- 5 Risk Management -- 5.1 Performance Indices and Figures of Merit -- 5.2 Objective Functions and Optimisation -- 5.2.1 Economic Optimisation under Certainty and under Risk -- 5.2.2 Optimisation Methods -- 5.2.2.1 Mathematical Programming -- 5.2.3 Discontinuous Decision Problems -- 5.3 Basic Decision Theory -- 5.3.1 Main Elements of Decision Making -- 5.3.1.1 Decision under Certainty -- 5.3.1.2 Decision under Risk -- 5.3.1.3 Decision under Uncertainty or Imprecision -- 5.3.1.4 Decision under Conflict -- 5.3.2 Decision Criteria -- 5.3.2.1 Decision Making under Uncertainty -- 5.3.2.2 Decision Making under Risk -- 5.3.3 Baye's Analysis and Value of Information -- 5.3.3.1 Perfect Information -- 5.3.3.2 Imperfect Information -- 5.4 Elements of the Utility Theory -- 5.5 Multi-objective Decision Analysis -- 5.5.1 Feasible, Non-dominated and Efficient Solutions -- 5.5.2 Solution Procedures and Typology of MCDA Techniques -- 5.6 Questions and Problems - Chapter 5 -- 6 Case Studies -- 6.1 Coastal Pollution: the Thermaikos Gulf (Macedonia, Greece) -- 6.1.1 Description of the Thermaikos Gulf -- 6.1.2 Water Circulation Patterns -- 6.1.3 Water Quality Assessment -- 6.1.4 Risk of Pollution under Climate Change -- 6.1.4.1 Temperature and Climate Change -- 6.1.4.2 Monte Carlo Simulation -- 6.2 River Water Quality: the Axios River (Macedonia, Greece) -- 6.2.1 Present Situation -- 6.2.1.1 Axios River -- 6.2.2 Mathematical Modelling -- 6.3 Groundwater Pollution: the Campaspe Aquifer (Victoria, Australia) -- 6.3.1 The Study Area -- 6.3.2 Risk of Salinisation. , 6.3.2.1 Groundwater Hydrodynamics -- 6.3.2.2 Random Walk Simulation -- Appendix A: The Probabilistic Approach -- A.1 Basic Probability -- A.2 The Multiplicative Law -- A.3 Statistical Independence -- A.4 Rare Events -- A.5 Theorem of Total Probability -- A.6 Bayes' Theorem -- A.7 Random Variables -- A.7.1 Discrete Random Variables -- A.7.2 Continuous Random Variables -- A.8 Expectation, Variance and Standard Deviation -- A.9 Derived Distributions -- A.10 Two-dimensional Distributions -- A.11 Functions of Random Vectors -- A.11.1 Sum of Random Variables -- A.11.2 Difference of Random Variables -- A.11.3 Product of Random Variables -- A.11.4 Ratio of Random Variables -- Appendix B: The Fuzzy Set Theory -- B.1 Basic Definitions -- B.2 Fuzzy Sets -- B.3 h-Level Sets, Normal and Convex Fuzzy Sets -- B.4 Fuzzy Numbers -- B.4.1 L-R Representation of a Fuzzy Number -- B.4.2 Triangular and Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers -- B.4.3 Support and h-Level of a Fuzzy Number -- B.5 Cartesian Product -- B.6 Extension Principle -- B.7 Arithmetic Operations on Fuzzy Numbers as Extension of Interval Analysis -- B.8 Arithmetic Operations on Intervals -- B.8.1 Addition and Subtraction of Intervals -- B.8.2 Multiplication and Division of Intervals -- B.8.3 Addition of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.4 Subtraction of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.5 Multiplication of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.6 Division of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.7 Minimum and Maximum of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.8 Mean and Width of Fuzzy Numbers -- B.8.9 Convolution of Fuzzy Numbers -- Appendix C: Hints for Answering Questions and Solutions to Problems -- C.1 Answers to Questions and Problems - Chapter 1 -- C.2 Answers to Questions and Problems - Chapter 2 -- C.3 Answers to Questions and Problems - Chapter 3 -- C.4 Answers to Questions and Problems - Chapter 4 -- C.5 Answers to Questions and Problems - Chapter 5 -- References -- Index.