Publication Date:
2017-12-24
Description:
In this study, high-resolution projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Canada were developed through the PRECIS model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In detail, the PRECIS model was employed to conduct simulations for the historical period over the entirety of Canada, driven by the boundary conditions from both ERA-Interim (1979 -2011) and HadGEM2-ES (1959 - 2005). The performance of PRECIS simulations in reproducing historical climatology of Canada was then validated through comparison with observed temperature and precipitation over the baseline period (1986 - 2005). The boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will be used to drive PRECIS for simulating climatic variables over Canada for the period of 2005 - 2099. Future climate projections of temperature and precipitation as well as their extreme indices over two time slices (i.e., 2046 - 2065 and 2076 - 2095) were extracted and analyzed. The results could help investigate how the regional climate over Canada will respond to global warming as well as the spatiotemporal characteristics of plausible climate changes in the Canadian context. The validation results demonstrate that the PRECIS model is effective in reproducing the historical climatological patterns of annual mean temperature and total precipitation across Canada. Projections of temperature and precipitation for the two future periods indicate that there will be an apparent increasing pattern over Canada. The projected changes derived in this study can provide decision-makers with valuable information to evaluate possible impacts on economic, social, and environmental sectors at regional and local scales.
Print ISSN:
0035-9009
Electronic ISSN:
1477-870X
Topics:
Geography
,
Physics
