In:
Diabetes Care, American Diabetes Association, Vol. 33, No. 2 ( 2010-02-01), p. 338-340
Abstract:
To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence ( & lt;15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987–2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%). RESULTS The current incidence rate (2000–2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6–20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 × {X–1986})2; r2 = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100, 000 per year (95% CI 33.3–42.9). CONCLUSIONS The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0149-5992
,
1935-5548
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Diabetes Association
Publication Date:
2010
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1490520-6
