In:
YUJOR, National Library of Serbia, Vol. 15, No. 1 ( 2005), p. 97-107
Abstract:
In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0354-0243
,
1820-743X
DOI:
10.2298/YJOR0501097L
Language:
English
Publisher:
National Library of Serbia
Publication Date:
2005
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2381207-2
