In:
Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 4 ( 2020-02-15), p. 1227-1245
Abstract:
We assess the representation of multiday temperature and rainfall extremes in southeast Australia in three coupled general circulation models (GCMs) of varying resolution. We evaluate the statistics of the modeled extremes in terms of their frequency, duration, and magnitude compared to observations, and the model representation of the midtropospheric circulation (synoptic and large scale) associated with the extremes. We find that the models capture the statistics of observed heatwaves reasonably well, though some models are “too wet” to adequately capture the observed duration of dry spells but not always wet enough to capture the magnitude of extreme wet events. Despite the inability of the models to simulate all extreme event statistics, the process evaluation indicates that the onset and decay of the observed synoptic structures are well simulated in the models, including for wet and dry extremes. We also show that the large-scale wave train structures associated with the observed extremes are reasonably well simulated by the models although their broader onset and decay is not always captured in the models. The results presented here provide some context for, and confidence in, the use of the coupled GCMs in climate prediction and projection studies for regional extremes.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0894-8755
,
1520-0442
DOI:
10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0287.1
Language:
Unknown
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Publication Date:
2020
detail.hit.zdb_id:
246750-1
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2021723-7
