In:
Diabetic Medicine, Wiley, Vol. 39, No. 2 ( 2022-02)
Abstract:
The study aimed at determining 5‐year incidence and prediction nomogram for new‐onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a middle‐aged population in Vietnam. Methods A population‐based prospective study was designed to collect socio‐economic, anthropometric, lifestyle and clinical data. Five‐year T2D incidence was estimated and adjusted for age and sex. Hazard ratio (HR) for T2D was investigated using discrete‐time proportional hazards model. T2D prediction model entering the most significant risk factors was developed using the multivariable logistic‐regression algorithm. The corresponding prediction nomogram was constructed and checked for discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. Results The age‐ and sex‐adjusted incidence was 21.0 cases (95% CI: 12.2−40.0) per 1000 person‐years in people with mean BMI of 22.2 (95% CI: 21.9−22.7 kg/m 2 ). The HRs (95% CI) for T2D were 1.14 (1.05−1.23) per 10 mmHg systolic blood pressure, 1.05 (1.03−1.08) per 1 cm waist circumference, 1.40 (1.13−1.73) per 1 mmol/L fasting blood glucose, 1.77 (1.15−2.71) per sleeping time ( 〈 6 h/day vs 6–7 h/day) and 2.12 (1.25−3.61) per residence (urban vs rural). The prediction nomogram for new‐onset T2D had a good discrimination (area under curve: 0.711, 95% CI: 0.666−0.755) and fit calibration (mean absolute error: 0.009). For the predicted probability thresholds between 0.03 and 0.36, the nomogram showed a positive net benefit, without increasing the number of false positives. Conclusion This study highlighted an alarmingly high incidence of T2D in a middle‐aged population with a normal range BMI in Vietnam. The individual prediction nomogram with decision curve analysis for new‐onset T2D would be valuable for early detection, intervention and treatment of the condition.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0742-3071
,
1464-5491
Language:
English
Publisher:
Wiley
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2019647-7
