Description: The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family Earth System Dynamics, 3, 245-261, 2012 Author(s): G. M. Martin and R. C. Levine Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework (one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle), to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.

Description: Detecting hotspots of atmosphere–vegetation interaction via slowing down – Part 2: Application to a global climate model Earth System Dynamics, 4, 79-93, 2013 Author(s): S. Bathiany, M. Claussen, and K. Fraedrich Early warning signals (EWS) have become a popular statistical tool to infer stability properties of the climate system. In Part 1 of this two-part paper we have presented a diagnostic method to find the hotspot of a sudden transition as opposed to regions that experience an externally induced tipping as a mere response. Here, we apply our method to the atmosphere–vegetation model PlanetSimulator (PlaSim) – VECODE using a regression model. For each of two vegetation collapses in PlaSim-VECODE, we identify a hotspot of one particular grid cell. We demonstrate with additional experiments that the detected hotspots are indeed a particularly sensitive region in the model and give a physical explanation for these results. The method can thus provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on the vulnerability of certain subsystems in climate models.

Description: Detecting hotspots of atmosphere–vegetation interaction via slowing down – Part 1: A stochastic approach Earth System Dynamics, 4, 63-78, 2013 Author(s): S. Bathiany, M. Claussen, and K. Fraedrich An analysis of so-called early warning signals (EWS) is proposed to identify the spatial origin of a sudden transition that results from a loss in stability of a current state. EWS, such as rising variance and autocorrelation, can be indicators of an increased relaxation time (slowing down). One particular problem of EWS-based predictions is the requirement of sufficiently long time series. Spatial EWS have been suggested to alleviate this problem by combining different observations from the same time. However, the benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. In this study we document this problem with a simple stochastic model of atmosphere–vegetation interaction where EWS at individual grid cells are not always detectable before a vegetation collapse as the local loss in stability can be small. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on the susceptibility of climate models and other systems.

Description: Urbanization suitability maps: a dynamic spatial decision support system for sustainable land use Earth System Dynamics, 3, 157-171, 2012 Author(s): M. Cerreta and P. De Toro Recent developments in land consumption assessment identify the need to implement integrated evaluation approaches, with particular attention to the development of multidimensional tools for guiding and managing sustainable land use. Land use policy decisions are implemented mostly through spatial planning and its related zoning. This involves trade-offs between many sectorial interests and conflicting challenges seeking win-win solutions. In order to identify a decision-making process for land use allocation, this paper proposes a methodological approach for developing a Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System (DSDSS), denominated Integrated Spatial Assessment (ISA), supported by Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Through empirical investigation in an operative case study, an integrated evaluation approach implemented in a DSDSS helps produce "urbanization suitability maps" in which spatial analysis combined with multi-criteria evaluation methods proved to be useful for both facing the main issues relating to land consumption as well as minimizing environmental impacts of spatial planning.

Description: Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model Earth System Dynamics, 3, 189-197, 2012 Author(s): M. Mengel, A. Levermann, C.-F. Schleussner, and A. Born Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Description: Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming Earth System Dynamics, 3, 173-188, 2012 Author(s): M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated, and the perceived relationship between these variables is a spurious regression phenomenon. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcings might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

Description: Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective Earth System Dynamics, 3, 199-212, 2012 Author(s): A. Alessandri, P. G. Fogli, M. Vichi, and N. Zeng Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

Description: Corrigendum to "Jet stream wind power as a renewable energy resource: little power, big impacts" published in Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 201–212, 2011 Earth System Dynamics, 3, 137-137, 2012 Author(s): L. M. Miller, F. Gans, and A. Kleidon No abstract available.

Description: On the relationship between metrics to compare greenhouse gases – the case of IGTP, GWP and SGTP Earth System Dynamics, 3, 139-147, 2012 Author(s): C. Azar and D. J. A. Johansson Metrics for comparing greenhouse gases are analyzed, with a particular focus on the integrated temperature change potential (IGTP) following a call from IPCC to investigate this metric. It is shown that the global warming potential (GWP) and IGTP are asymptotically equal when the time horizon approaches infinity when standard assumptions about a constant background atmosphere are used. The difference between IGTP and GWP is estimated for different greenhouse gases using an upwelling diffusion energy balance model with different assumptions on the climate sensitivity and the parameterization governing the rate of ocean heat uptake. It is found that GWP and IGTP differ by some 10% for CH 4 (for a time horizon of less than 500 yr), and that the relative difference between GWP and IGTP is less for gases with a longer atmospheric life time. Further, it is found that the relative difference between IGTP and GWP increases with increasing rates of ocean heat uptake and increasing climate sensitivity since these changes increase the inertia of the climate system. Furthermore, it is shown that IGTP is equivalent to the sustained global temperature change potential (SGTP) under standard assumptions when estimating GWPs. We conclude that while it matters little for abatement policy whether IGTP, SGTP or GWP is used when making trade-offs, it is more important to decide whether society should use a metric based on time integrated effects such as GWP, a "snapshot metric" as GTP, or metrics where both economics and physical considerations are taken into account. Of equal importance is the question of how to choose the time horizon, regardless of the chosen metric. For both these overall questions, value judgments are needed.

Description: Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models Earth System Dynamics, 4, 95-108, 2013 Author(s): B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.