Description: United Nations General Assembly resolution 69/292 provides that in developing an internationally legally binding instrument on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, the process should “not undermine” relevant existing legal instruments and frameworks and relevant global, regional, and sectoral bodies. An analysis of the varied interpretations of this ambiguous expression and its surrounding language raises questions about the role envisaged for such existing architecture. This article considers the practice of regional fisheries management organizations as an illustration of the possibilities and potential for improved practices generated from within existing architecture. It reviews measures taken to protect biodiversity and innovative applications of international law that have improved the ability of RFMOs to take such environmental measures. It seeks to highlight the importance of avoiding too narrow an interpretation of the notion of “not undermining”, and of recognizing the potential in existing architecture when designing an improved regime for the protection of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction.

Description: On 24 February 2017, a workshop entitled “Law Beyond Boundaries: innovative mechanisms for the integrated management of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction” was held in Wollongong, Australia hosted by the Oceans and International Environmental Law Interest Group of the Australian and New Zealand Society of International Law, in association with the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security at the University of Wollongong. The aim of the workshop was to address the question, how can international law be used in innovative ways to effectively conserve and sustainably manage marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ)? In this introduction, we briefly summarize five of the papers developed for the workshop, highlighting the way in which they address three important themes: the promise and limits of existing institutional mechanisms governing activities in ABNJ; interactions between established principles and regimes for ABNJ; and the lessons that can be drawn from existing global and regional approaches to ABNJ. We hope that the ideas developed in this article theme set will contribute to the ongoing discussions at the United Nations General Assembly, as the international community works toward the development of an international legally binding instrument to govern activities in ABNJ.

Description:    To avoid dangerous changes to the climate system, the global mean temperature must not rise more than 2 °C from the 19th century level. The German Advisory Council on Global Change recommends maintaining the rate of change in temperature to within 0.2 °C per decade. This paper supposes that a geoengineering option of solar radiation management (SRM) by injecting aerosol into the Earth’s stratosphere becomes applicable in the future to meet those temperature conditions. However, a failure to continue the use of this option could cause a rapid temperature rebound, and thus we propose a principle of SRM use that the temperature conditions must be satisfied even after SRM termination at any time. We present economically optimal trajectories of the amounts of SRM use and the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under our principle by using an economic model of climate change. To meet the temperature conditions described above, the SRM must reduce radiative forcing by slightly more than 1 W/m 2 at most, and industrial CO 2 emissions must be cut by 80 % by the end of the 21st century relative to 2005, assuming a climate sensitivity of 3 °C. Lower-level use of SRM is required for a higher climate sensitivity; otherwise, the temperature will rise faster in the case of SRM termination. Considering potential economic damages of environmental side effects due to the use of SRM, the contribution of SRM would have to be much smaller. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Article Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9414-2 Authors Takanobu Kosugi, College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, 56-1 Toji-in Kitamachi, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603-8577 Japan Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy. Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems, disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public) and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9889-2 Authors Chun-Pin Tseng, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Armaments Bureau, Taoyuan, Taiwan Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: .   This contribution reflects on the comments of Peter Allen [1], Bikas K. Chakrabarti [2], Péter Érdi [3], Juval Portugali [4], Sorin Solomon [5], and Stefan Thurner [6] on three White Papers (WP) of the EU Support Action Visioneer (www.visioneer.ethz.ch). These White Papers are entitled “From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crises” (WP 1) [7], “From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design” (WP 2) [8], and “How to Create an Innovation Accelerator” (WP 3) [9]. In our reflections, the need and feasibility of a “Knowledge Accelerator” is further substantiated by fundamental considerations and recent events around the globe. newpara The Visioneer White Papers propose research to be carried out that will improve our understanding of complex techno-socio-economic systems and their interaction with the environment. Thereby, they aim to stimulate multi-disciplinary collaborations between ICT, the social sciences, and complexity science. Moreover, they suggest combining the potential of massive real-time data, theoretical models, large-scale computer simulations and participatory online platforms. By doing so, it would become possible to explore various futures and to expand the limits of human imagination when it comes to the assessment of the often counter-intuitive behavior of these complex techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In this contribution, we also highlight the importance of a pluralistic modeling approach and, in particular, the need for a fruitful interaction between quantitative and qualitative research approaches. newpara In an appendix we briefly summarize the concept of the FuturICT flagship project, which will build on and go beyond the proposals made by the Visioneer White Papers. EU flagships are ambitious multi-disciplinary high-risk projects with a duration of at least 10 years amounting to an envisaged overall budget of 1 billion EUR [10]. The goal of the FuturICT flagship initiative is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Content Type Journal Article Pages 165-186 DOI 10.1140/epjst/e2011-01410-7 Authors D. Helbing, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Balietti, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Bishop, Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT UK P. Lukowicz, University of Passau, Innstrasse 43, 94032 Passau, Germany Journal The European Physical Journal - Special Topics Online ISSN 1951-6401 Print ISSN 1951-6355 Journal Volume Volume 195 Journal Issue Volume 195, Number 1

Description:    Severe water erosion is notorious for its harmful effects on land-water resources as well as local societies. The scale effects of water erosion, however, greatly exacerbate the difficulties of accurate erosion evaluation and hazard control in the real world. Analyzing the related scale issues is thus urgent for a better understanding of erosion variations as well as reducing such erosion. In this review article, water erosion dynamics across three spatial scales including plot, watershed, and regional scales were selected and discussed. For the study purposes and objectives, the advantages and disadvantages of these scales all demonstrate clear spatial-scale dependence. Plot scale studies are primarily focused on abundant data collection and mechanism discrimination of erosion generation, while watershed scale studies provide valuable information for watershed management and hazard control as well as the development of quantitatively distributed models. Regional studies concentrate more on large-scale erosion assessment, and serve policymakers and stakeholders in achieving the basis for regulatory policy for comprehensive land uses. The results of this study show that the driving forces and mechanisms of water erosion variations among the scales are quite different. As a result, several major aspects contributing to variations in water erosion across the scales are stressed: differences in the methodologies across various scales, different sink-source roles on water erosion processes, and diverse climatic zones and morphological regions. This variability becomes more complex in the context of accelerated global change. The changing climatic factors and earth surface features are considered the fourth key reason responsible for the increased variability of water erosion across spatial scales. Content Type Journal Article Pages 127-143 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0524-2 Authors Wei Wei, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Liding Chen, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Lei Yang, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Bojie Fu, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Ranhao Sun, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063 Journal Volume Volume 22 Journal Issue Volume 22, Number 2

Description:    This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9407-1 Authors Louis Lebel, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200 Thailand Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    In this paper, we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change. The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system (CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion. A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China, where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS. Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators. The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas, while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones. Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances, showing highest sensitivity. Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences. After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons, climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats. The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map. Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope. This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4 Authors Xiaoqian Liu, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Yanglin Wang, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Jian Peng, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China K. Braimoh Ademola, Global Land Project, Sapporo Nodal Office, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0809 Japan He Yin, Geomatics Laboratory, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, 10099 Germany Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063

Description:    Understanding the characteristics of historical droughts will benefit water resource managers because it will reveal the possible impacts that future changes in climate may have on drought, and subsequently, the availability of water resources. The goal of this study was to reconstruct historical drought occurrences and assess future drought risk for the drought-prone Blue River Basin in Oklahoma, under a likely changing climate using three types of drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). No similar research has been conducted in this region previously. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from the observational period 1950–1999 and over the projection period 2010–2099 from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were used to compute the duration, severity, and extent of meteorological droughts. Additionally, soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff data from the well-calibrated Thornthwaite Monthly Water Balance Model were used to examine drought from a hydrological perspective. The results show that the three indices captured the historical droughts for the past 50 years and suggest that more severe droughts of wider extent are very likely to occur over the next 90 years in the Blue River Basin, especially in the later part of the 21st century. In fact, all three indices display lower minimum values than those ever recorded in the past 50 years. This study also found that SRI and SPI (PDSI) had a correlation coefficient of 0.81 (0.78) with a 2-month (no appreciable) lag time over the 1950–2099 time period across the basin. There was relatively lower correlation between SPI and PDSI over the same period. Although this study recommends that PDSI and SRI are the most suitable indices for assessing future drought risks under an increasingly warmer climate, more drought indices from ecological and socioeconomic perspectives should be investigated and compared to provide a complete picture of drought and its potential impacts on the dynamically coupled nature-human system. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0044-y Authors Lu Liu, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 334, Norman, OK 73019-1024, USA Yang Hong, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 334, Norman, OK 73019-1024, USA Christopher N. Bednarczyk, Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program, National Weather Center, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Bin Yong, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Mark A. Shafer, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA Rachel Riley, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA James E. Hocker, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA Journal Water Resources Management Online ISSN 1573-1650 Print ISSN 0920-4741

Description: Arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ) are an important predator of juvenile walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogramus ) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf and have increased 3-fold in biomass from 1977 to 2014. Arrowtooth flounder avoid the summer "cold pool" (bottom water ≤2°C) and variability in cold pool size and location has affected their spatial overlap with juvenile walleye pollock. Developing a method to account for the relationship between climate change and pollock mortality can highlight ecosystem dynamics and contribute to better assessments for fisheries management. Consequently, spatially resolved predation mortality rates were estimated within an age-structured walleye pollock stock assessment population model (based on spatial information on diet and abundance from trawl surveys), along with the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on pollock recruitment. Projections of SST and cold pool area to 2050 were obtained (or statistically downscaled) from nine global climate models and used within an age-structure population model to project pollock abundance given estimated relationships between environmental variables and predator and prey spatial distributions, pollock recruitment, and maximum rate of arrowtooth flounder consumption. The climate projections show a wide range of variability but an overall trend of increasing SST and decreasing cold pool area. Projected pollock biomass decreased largely due to the negative effect of increased SST on pollock recruitment. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the decline in projected pollock biomass would be exacerbated if arrowtooth flounder increased their relative distribution in the EBS northwest middle shelf (an area of relatively high density of juvenile pollock) in warm years.