Description:    This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0567-9 Authors Lu Liu, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Yang Hong, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA James E. Hocker, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Mark A. Shafer, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Lynne M. Carter, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA Christopher N. Bednarczyk, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Bin Yong, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Pradeep Adhikari, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology Online ISSN 1434-4483 Print ISSN 0177-798X

Description:    Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community’s ability to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as transportation, health, and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns, climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities, leaving low-income, minority, and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly, knowledge gaps, future research priorities, and policy implications are identified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7 Authors Seth B. Shonkoff, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Division of Society and Environment, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3144, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Rachel Morello-Frosch, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Manuel Pastor, Departments of Geography and American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California, 3620 S. Vermont Ave, KAP-462, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0255, USA James Sadd, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Occidental College, 1600 Campus Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90041, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400  AD . We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (〈100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (〉100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5 Authors Chonggang Xu, Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA George Z. Gertner, Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, W-523 Turner Hall, MC-047, 1102 South Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Robert M. Scheller, Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0259-6 Authors David Etkin, Disaster and Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 J. Medalye, Political Science, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada K. Higuchi, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    In recent years, owing to global warming and the rising sea levels, beach nourishment and groin building have been increasingly employed to protect coastal land from shoreline erosion. These actions may degrade beach habitats and reduce biomass and invertebrate density at sites where they were employed. We conducted an eco-environmental evaluation at the Anping artificial beach-nourishment project area. At this site, sand piles within a semi-enclosed spur groin have been enforced by use of eco-engineering concepts since 2003. Four sampling sites were monitored during the study period from July 2002 to September 2008. The environmental impact assessment and biological investigations that we conducted are presented here. The results from this study indicate that both biotic (number of species, number of individual organisms, and Shannon-Wiener diversity) and abiotic parameters (suspended solids, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, median diameter, and water content) showed significant differences before and after beach engineering construction. Biological conditions became worse in the beginning stages of the engineering but improved after the restoration work completion. This study reveals that the composition of benthic invertebrates changed over the study period, and two groups of organisms, Bivalvia and Gastropoda, seemed to be particularly suitable to this habitat after the semi-enclosed artificial structures completion. Content Type Journal Article Pages 215-236 DOI 10.1007/s13344-011-0019-4 Authors Chun-Han Shih, Institute of Fisheries Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617 China Yi-Yu Kuo, Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, 30010 China Ta-Jen Chu, Department of Leisure and Recreation Management, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, 30012 China Wen-Chieh Chou, Department of Civil Engineering, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, 30012 China Wei-Tse Chang, Institute of Fisheries Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617 China Ying-Chou Lee, Institute of Fisheries Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617 China Journal China Ocean Engineering Print ISSN 0890-5487 Journal Volume Volume 25 Journal Issue Volume 25, Number 2

Description: .   This contribution reflects on the comments of Peter Allen [1], Bikas K. Chakrabarti [2], Péter Érdi [3], Juval Portugali [4], Sorin Solomon [5], and Stefan Thurner [6] on three White Papers (WP) of the EU Support Action Visioneer (www.visioneer.ethz.ch). These White Papers are entitled “From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crises” (WP 1) [7], “From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design” (WP 2) [8], and “How to Create an Innovation Accelerator” (WP 3) [9]. In our reflections, the need and feasibility of a “Knowledge Accelerator” is further substantiated by fundamental considerations and recent events around the globe. newpara The Visioneer White Papers propose research to be carried out that will improve our understanding of complex techno-socio-economic systems and their interaction with the environment. Thereby, they aim to stimulate multi-disciplinary collaborations between ICT, the social sciences, and complexity science. Moreover, they suggest combining the potential of massive real-time data, theoretical models, large-scale computer simulations and participatory online platforms. By doing so, it would become possible to explore various futures and to expand the limits of human imagination when it comes to the assessment of the often counter-intuitive behavior of these complex techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In this contribution, we also highlight the importance of a pluralistic modeling approach and, in particular, the need for a fruitful interaction between quantitative and qualitative research approaches. newpara In an appendix we briefly summarize the concept of the FuturICT flagship project, which will build on and go beyond the proposals made by the Visioneer White Papers. EU flagships are ambitious multi-disciplinary high-risk projects with a duration of at least 10 years amounting to an envisaged overall budget of 1 billion EUR [10]. The goal of the FuturICT flagship initiative is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Content Type Journal Article Pages 165-186 DOI 10.1140/epjst/e2011-01410-7 Authors D. Helbing, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Balietti, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Bishop, Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT UK P. Lukowicz, University of Passau, Innstrasse 43, 94032 Passau, Germany Journal The European Physical Journal - Special Topics Online ISSN 1951-6401 Print ISSN 1951-6355 Journal Volume Volume 195 Journal Issue Volume 195, Number 1

Description:    Soil carbon stocks and sequestration have been given a lot of attention recently in the study of terrestrial ecosystems and global climate change. This review focuses on the progress made on the estimation of the soil carbon stocks of China, and the characterization of carbon dynamics of croplands with regard to climate change, and addresses issues on the mineralization of soil organic carbon in relation to greenhouse gas emissions. By integrating existing research data, China’s total soil organic carbon (SOC) stock is estimated to be 90 Pg and its inorganic carbon (SIC) stock as 60 Pg, with SOC sequestration rates in the range of 20–25 Tg/a for the last two decades. An estimation of the biophysical potential of SOC sequestration has been generally agreed as being 2 Pg over the long term, of which only 1/3 could be attainable using contemporary agricultural technologies in all of China’s croplands. Thus, it is critical to enhance SOC sequestration and mitigate climate change to improve agricultural and land use management in China. There have been many instances where SOC accumulation may not induce an increased amount of decomposition under a warming scenario but instead favor improved cropland productivity and ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, unchanged or even decreased net global warming potential (GWP) from croplands with enhanced SOC has been reported by a number of case studies using life cycle analysis. Future studies on soil carbon stocks and the sequestration potential of China are expected to focus on: (1) Carbon stocks and the sequestration capacity of the earths’ surface systems at scales ranging from the plot to the watershed and (2) multiple interface processes and the synergies between carbon sequestration and ecosystem productivity and ecosystem functioning at scales from the molecular level to agro-ecosystems. Soil carbon science in China faces new challenges and opportunities to undertake integrated research applicable to many areas. Content Type Journal Article Category Review Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11434-011-4693-7 Authors JuFeng Zheng, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China Kun Cheng, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China GenXing Pan, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China Pete Smith, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU UK LianQing Li, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China XuHui Zhang, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China JinWei Zheng, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China XiaoJun Han, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China YanLing Du, Institute for Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture, and Research Center of Agriculture and Climate Change, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095 China Journal Chinese Science Bulletin Online ISSN 1861-9541 Print ISSN 1001-6538

Description:    Since Westman (1977) and Ehrlich (1982) put forward the concepts of “the service of nature” and “ecosystem service functions”, respectively, methods for conducting value accounting for them, and their practical application have become the subjects of intense study. Based on an overview of available research findings, we discuss three scientific hypotheses. First, the terrestrial ecosystem offers both positive and negative service functions. Second, changes in terrestrial ecosystem service functions lie not only in the number of ecosystem types and the coverage area of each type, but also in their quality. Third, the value of terrestrial ecosystem service functions should be assessed both in terms of the value stocked and the value added. We collected land use data from China during the period 1999–2008, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data based on remote sensing images from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies for the same period. We then calculated and analyzed spatial and temporal changes in China’s terrestrial ecosystem service values over the 10-year period. Considering temporal change, the total value (stocked) of China’s terrestrial ecosystem service functions decreased from 6.82 trillion Yuan RMB in 1999 to 6.57 trillion Yuan RMB in 2008. During that period, the positive value decreased by 240.17 billion Yuan RMB and the negative value increased by 8.85 billion Yuan RMB. The decrease in total value lies mainly in the humidity control, soil formation, and waste recycling functions. The total value (added) of China’s terrestrial ecosystem service functions increased by 4.31 billion Yuan RMB in 2000, but decreased by 0.13 billion Yuan RMB in 2008 (based on the constant price of China in 1999). The value (added) was a negative figure. From the perspective of spatial change, we can see that the supply of China’s terrestrial ecosystem service functions fell slightly over the past 10 years, mainly in Northeast and Southern China. As a result of human activities on ecosystems, the loss of ecosystem service functions’ value was relatively prominent in Shanxi and Gansu provinces, compared with an increase in value in Shaanxi Province. Terrestrial ecosystem service functions’ value per unit area was relatively high in mid- and East China, showing a prominent spatial change over the 10-year period, but low in Western China. Some conclusions are drawn after an in-depth analysis of the factors causing the spatial and temporal changes in China’s terrestrial ecosystem service functions, in the hope that our suggestions will be helpful for the management of China’s terrestrial ecosystems. Content Type Journal Article Category Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11434-012-4978-5 Authors Yao Shi, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China RuSong Wang, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China JinLou Huang, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China WenRui Yang, Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design, Beijing, 100045 China Journal Chinese Science Bulletin Online ISSN 1861-9541 Print ISSN 1001-6538

Description:    Four wetland maps for all China have been produced, based on Landsat and CBERS-02B remote sensing data between 1978 and 2008 (1978, 1990, 2000 and 2008). These maps were mainly developed by manual interpretation and validated by substantial field investigation in 2009. Based on these maps, we analyzed the 2008 wetland distribution in China and discussed wetland changes and their drivers over the past 30 years. (i) There were about 324097 km 2 of wetlands in 2008, for which inland marshes or swamps were the most common wetland type (35%), with lakes (26%) second. Most of the wetlands were in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Tibet, occupying about 55% of the national wetland area. (ii) From 1978 to 2008, China’s wetland area continually and significantly decreased, by about 33% based on changes in the wetland map. This was in sharp contrast to the increase in artificial wetlands, which increased by about 122%. Inland marshes accounted for the main loss of total wetlands from 1978 to 2000. From 2000 through 2008, riverine and lacustrine wetlands constituted the main wetland loss. Fortunately however, the rate of wetland loss decreased from 5523 to 831 km 2 /a. (iii) The change ratio of lost natural wetlands (including inland and coastal wetlands) to non-wetlands has decreased slightly over the past 30 years. From 1978 to 1990, nearly all natural wetlands (98%) lost were transformed into non-wetlands. However, the ratio declined to 86% from 1990 to 2000, and to 77% from 2000 to 2008. (iv) All Chinese provinces were divided into three groups according to patterns of wetland changes, which could relate to the driving forces of such changes. Tibet was completely different from other provinces, as it was one representative example in which there was a net wetland increase, because of global warming and decreased human activity since 1990. Increased economic development caused considerable wetland loss in most eastern provinces, and artificial wetlands increased. Content Type Journal Article Category Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11434-012-5093-3 Authors ZhenGuo Niu, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China HaiYing Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China XianWei Wang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China WenBo Yao, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 China DeMin Zhou, Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100037 China KuiYi Zhao, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, 130012 China Hui Zhao, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China NaNa Li, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China HuaBing Huang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China CongCong Li, Department of Geography and Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Jun Yang, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083 China CaiXia Liu, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China Shuang Liu, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China Lin Wang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China Zhan Li, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China ZhenZhong Yang, Department of Geography and Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Fei Qiao, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China YaoMin Zheng, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China YanLei Chen, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 94720 USA YongWei Sheng, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095 USA XiaoHong Gao, Department of Life and Geographic Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810008 China WeiHong Zhu, Department of Geography, Yanbian University, Yanbian, 133002 China WenQing Wang, School of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005 China Hong Wang, School of Geographical Information Science, Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100 China YongLing Weng, School of Surveying and Mapping Transportation Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096 China DaFang Zhuang, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China JiYuan Liu, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China ZhiCai Luo, School of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079 China Xiao Cheng, Department of Geography and Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China ZiQi Guo, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China Peng Gong, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101 China Journal Chinese Science Bulletin Online ISSN 1861-9541 Print ISSN 1001-6538

Description:    Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0 Authors Mort Webster, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Andrei P. Sokolov, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA John M. Reilly, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chris E. Forest, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Sergey Paltsev, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Adam Schlosser, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chien Wang, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA David Kicklighter, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Marcus Sarofim, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Ronald G. Prinn, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Henry D. Jacoby, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009