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  • Journals
  • Articles  (4)
  • 04.08. Volcanology
  • numerical modeling
  • 1
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    Geoethics: The Missing Piece in the Separation of Responsibility Between Volcanologists and Decision-Makers (2023)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-20
    Description: In a volcanic crisis, authorized decision-makers must balance the social and economic costs of mitigating actions, such as evacuation, against the potential human losses if such actions are insufficient. In making their decisions, advice is needed from volcanologists on the eruption probability. Therefore, there should be a clear separation in the roles of volcanologists and decision-makers; the volcanologists should advise on the volcano hazard and alternative potential scenarios but refrain from involvement in making decisions. Currently, volcanologists are responsible for setting volcano alert levels. Given the small handful of distinct alert levels, there is inherent ambiguity and substantial uncertainty in the interpretation of individual levels. Furthermore, changing an alert level may automatically trigger actions by decision-makers. This would violate the principle of separation of responsibility and may result in unwelcome pressure being applied to volcanologists. Just as physicians can invoke medical ethics in resisting pressure to alter their advice, so volcanologists can invoke geoethics. Freedom to abide by their scientific beliefs is a basic tenet of geoethics.
    Description: Published
    Description: 19-23
    Description: Terceira Island, Azores (Portugal)
    Description: 4SR TERREMOTI - Preparazione alla comunicazione in emergenza
    Description: 6SR VULCANI – Servizi e ricerca per la società
    Description: 1TM. Formazione
    Description: 3TM. Comunicazione
    Keywords: volcano ; crisis ; evacuation ; geoethics ; responsibility ; 05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues ; 05.09. Miscellaneous ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 2
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    Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-07
    Description: Understanding the complexity of future volcanic impacts that can be potentially induced by the large variability of volcanic hazards and the multiple dimensions of vulnerability of the increasingly interdependent and interconnected societies, requires an in-depth analysis of past events. A structured and inclusive post-event impact assessment framework is proposed and applied for the evaluation of damage and disruption on critical infrastructures caused by the eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) in 2011–2012. This framework is built on the forensic analysis of disasters combined with the techniques of the root cause analysis that converge in a bow-tie tool. It consists of a fault tree connected to subsequent event trees to describe the causal order of impacts. Considering the physical and systemic dimensions of vulnerability, four orders of impact have been identified: i) the first order refers to the physical damage or the primary impact on a component of the critical infrastructure; ii) the second order refers to the loss of functionality in the system due to a physical damage on key components of the system; iii) the third order refers to the systemic impact due to the interdependency and connectivity among different critical infrastructures; and iv) a higher order is related to the consequences on the main economic sectors and to social disruption that can activate an overall damage to the economy of the country or countries affected. Our study in the Argentinian Patagonia shows that the long-lasting impact of the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption is mostly due to a secondary hazard (i.e., wind remobilisation of ash), which exacerbated the primary impact affecting significantly larger areas and for longer time with respect to primary tephra deposition. In addition, systemic vulnerability, particularly the intrinsic dependencies within and among systems, played a major role in the cascading impact of the analysed communities.
    Description: This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021–163152).
    Description: Published
    Description: 645945
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: impact assessment ; volcanic eruptions ; forensic analysis ; systemic vulnerability ; cascading effects ; bow-tie approach ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    AEOLUS: a laboratory to study bubble-bearing flow dynamics and geophysical signals through analogue volcanic eruption (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Basaltic volcanoes represent a very large portion of active volcanism and exhibit a wide variability in their eruptive style. The basaltic eruptive activity in fact shows either a purely effusive behavior or an explosive character, which can, rarely, also turn into violent Plinian eruptions. The most characteristic explosive activities of basaltic magmatism are represented by Strombolian eruptions and lava fountains. The study of the relationship that exists between the pre-eruptive dynamics (e.g. fractional crystallization, mixing, degassing), the chemicalphysical variations of the magma in the volcanic feeding system and the related outcomes (in terms of eruptive style and geophysical markers) at the surface has been, in the last decades, reason of numerous studies. Nonetheless, the complexity of the volcanic system and its inaccessibility to direct observations still makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the magmatic system, basing on surface observations of the eruptive activity. A challenging objective of modern volcanology is to quantitatively characterize eruptive/degassing regimes from geophysical signals (in particular seismic and infrasonic), for both research and monitoring purposes. The outcomes of the attempts made so far are still considered very uncertain because volcanoes remain inaccessible when deriving quantitative information on crucial parameters such as plumbing system geometry and magma viscosity. Therefore the realization of laboratory made by several devices, capable to scale and reproduce in a controlled way the degassing dynamics of volcanic systems and measure the relative elastic markers (seismic and acoustic), is an indispensable tool to identify reliable quantitative relationships between the geophysical signals and the related eruptive and outgassing parameters. With the Aeolus project we build an experimental laboratory for the study of degassing dynamics through analogue volcanic eruptions. In particular the laboratory is capable of 1) investigate the relationship between degassing processes and the relative seismo-acoustic signals; 2) study the effect of different degrees of irregularity (i.e. roughness of the internal surface) of volcanic conduits on the eruptive style and/or the associated seismic-acoustic signals; 3) unravel the timescales of cyclic activity at basaltic volcanoes, reproducing the foam collapse model of Jaupart and Vergniolle (1988, 1989), which explains the transition between different explosive terms of the basaltic system (e.g. Strombolian activity and lava fountains), in a range of dimensionless parameters close to the volcanic system.
    Description: Published
    Description: Parma
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Keywords: Experiments ; Degassive dynamics ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 4
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    Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-07
    Description: Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.
    Description: Published
    Description: 628061
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunamis ; inundation maps ; early warning ; probabilistic hazard ; numerical modeling ; Italy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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