Note: Cover -- Half Title -- Series Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgements -- Series Preface -- Introduction -- PART I CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS -- 1 John Houghton (2001), 'The Science of Global Warming', Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 26, pp. 247-57. -- 2 Brent Sohngen and Robert Mendelsohn (1998), 'Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market: The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber', American Economic Review, 88, pp. 686-710. -- 3 Kenneth D. Frederick and David C. Major (1997), 'Climate Change and Water Resources', Climatic Change, 37, pp. 7-23. -- 4 Gary Yohe and Michael Schlesinger (2002), 'The Economic Geography of the Impacts of Climate Change', Journal of Economic Geography, 2, pp. 311-41. -- 5 Allan D. Brunner (2002), 'El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?', Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, pp. 176-83. -- 6 Robert Mendelsohn, William D. Nordhaus and Daigee Shaw (1994), 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis', American Economic Review, 84, pp. 753-71. -- 7 John Quiggin and John K. Horowitz (1999), 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment', American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1044-45. -- 8 Robert Mendelsohn and William Nordhaus (1999), 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply', American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1046-48. -- 9 Roy Darwin (1999), 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment', American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1049-52. -- 10 Robert Mendelsohn and William Nordhaus (1999), 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply', American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1053-55. -- PART II EVALUATING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION. , 11 William D. Nordhaus (1993), 'Rolling the "DICE": An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases', Resource and Energy Economics, 15, pp. 27-50. -- 12 Richard S.J. Tol (1999), 'The Marginal Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions', Energy Journal, 20, pp. 61-81. -- 13 Tim Roughgarden and Stephen H. Schneider (1999), 'Climate Change Policy: Quantifying Uncertainties for Damages and Optimal Carbon Taxes', Energy Policy, 27, pp. 415-29. -- 14 Lawrence H. Goulder and Koshy Mathai (2000), 'Optimal C02 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 39, pp. 1-38. -- 15 Charles D. Kolstad (1996), 'Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 31, pp. 1-18. -- 16 Christian Azar and Thomas Sterner (1996), 'Discounting and Distributional Considerations in the Context of Global Warming', Ecological Economics, 19, pp. 169-84. -- 17 Richard B. Howarth (2000), 'Climate Change and the Representative Agent', Environmental and Resource Economics, 15, pp. 135-48. -- 18 Thomas C. Schelling (1995), 'Intergenerational Discounting', Energy Policy, 23, pp. 395-401. -- 19 T.M.L. Wigley, R. Richels and J.A. Edmonds (1996), 'Economic and Environmental Choices in the Stabilization of Atmospheric C02 Concentrations', Nature, 379, pp. 240-43. -- 20 Zhongxiang Zhang (2000), 'Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications', World Development, 28, pp. 739-52. -- 21 Robert C. Hyman, John M. Reilly, Mustafa H. Babiker, Ardoin De Masin and Henry D. Jacoby (2003), 'Modeling N on-C02 Greenhouse Gas Abatement', Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 8, pp. 175-86. , 22 Richard G. Newell and Robert N. Stavins (2000), 'Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 40, pp. 211-35. -- 23 Andrew J. Plantinga, Thomas Mauldin and Douglas J. Miller (1999), 'An Econometric Analysis of the Costs of Sequestering Carbon in Forests', American Journal of Agricultural Economics', 81, pp. 812-24. -- PART III POLICY DESIGN FOR GHG MITIGATION -- 24 Ian W.H. Parry and Roberton C. Williams III (1999), 'A Second-Best Evaluation of Eight Policy Instruments to Reduce Carbon Emissions', Resource and Energy Economics, 21, pp. 347-73. -- 25 William A. Pizer (2002), 'Combining Price and Quantity Controls to Mitigate Global Climate Change', Journal of Public Economics, 85, pp. 409-34. -- 26 Michael Grubb (1997), 'Technologies, Energy Systems and the Timing of C02 Emissions Abatement: An Overview of Economic Issues', Energy Policy, 25, pp. 159-72. -- 27 Adam B. Jaffe and Robert N. Stavins (1994), 'Energy-Efficiency Investments and Public Policy', Energy Journal, 15, pp. 43-65. -- 28 P.R. Shukla (1996), 'The Modelling of Policy Options for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in India', Ambio, 25, pp. 240-48. -- 29 Scott Barrett (1998), 'Political Economy of the Kyoto Protocol', Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14, pp. 20-39. -- 30 Adam Rose, Brandt Stevens, Jae Edmonds and Marshall Wise (1998),' International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy: An Application to Tradeable Emission Permits', Environmental and Resource Economics, 12, pp. 25-51. -- 31 Zili Yang (1999), 'Should the North Make Unilateral Technology Transfers to the South? North-South Cooperation and Conflicts in Responses to Global Climate Change', Resource and Energy Economics, 21, pp. 67-87. , 32 Mustafa Babiker, John M. Reilly and Henry D. Jacoby (2000), 'The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries', Energy Policy, 28, pp. 525-36. -- Name Index.

Note: Front Cover -- Advanced Modelling Techniques Studying Global Changes in Environmental Sciences -- Copyright -- Contents -- Contributors -- Preface -- Chapter 1: Introduction: Global changes and sustainable ecosystem management -- 1.1. Effects of Global Changes -- 1.2. Sustainable Ecosystem Management -- 1.3. Outline of This Book -- 1.3.1. Review of ecological models -- 1.3.2. Ecological network analysis and structurally dynamic models -- 1.3.3. Behavioral monitoring and species distribution models -- 1.3.4. Ecological risk assessment -- 1.3.5. Agriculture and forest ecosystems -- 1.3.6. Urban ecosystems -- 1.3.7. Estuary and marine ecosystems -- References -- Chapter 2: Toward a new generation of ecological modelling techniques: Review and bibliometrics -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Historical Development of Ecological Modelling -- 2.3. Bibliometric Analysis of Modelling Approaches -- 2.3.1. Data Sources and Analysis -- 2.3.2. Publication Output -- 2.3.3. Journal Distribution -- 2.3.4. Country/Territory Distribution and International Collaboration -- 2.3.5. Keyword Analysis -- 2.4. Brief Review of Modelling Techniques -- 2.4.1. Structurally Dynamic Model -- 2.4.2. Individual-Based Models -- 2.4.3. Support Vector Machine -- 2.4.4. Artificial Neural Networks -- 2.4.5. Tree-Based Model -- 2.4.6. Evolutionary Computation -- 2.4.7. Ordination and Classification Models -- 2.4.8. k-Nearest Neighbors -- 2.5. Future Perspectives of Ecological Modelling -- 2.5.1. Big Data Age: Data-Intensive Modelling -- 2.5.2. Hybrid Models -- 2.5.3. Model Sensitivities and Uncertainties -- References -- Chapter 3: System-wide measures in ecological network analysis -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Description of system-wide Measures -- 3.3. Ecosystem Models Used for Comparison -- 3.4. Methods -- 3.5. Observations and Discussion -- 3.5.1. Clusters of Structure-Based Measures. , 3.5.2. Clusters of Flow-Based Measures -- 3.5.3. Clusters of Storage-Based Measures -- References -- Chapter 4: Application of structurally dynamic models (SDMs) to determine impacts of climate changes -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Development of SDM -- 4.2.1. The Number of Feedbacks and Regulations Is Extremely High and Makes It Possible for the Living Organisms and Populatio -- 4.2.2. Ecosystems Show a High Degree of Heterogeneity in Space and in Time -- 4.2.3. Ecosystems and Their Biological Components, the Species, Evolve Steadily and over the Long-Term Toward Higher Complexi -- 4.3. Application of SDMs for the Assessment of Ecological Changes due to Climate Changes -- 4.4. Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 5: Modelling animal behavior to monitor effects of stressors -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. Behavior Modelling: Dealing with Instantaneous or Whole Data Sets -- 5.2.1. Parameter Extraction and State Identification -- 5.2.2. Filtering and Intermittency -- 5.2.3. Statistics and Informatics -- 5.3. Higher Moments in Position Distribution -- 5.4. Identifying Behavioral States -- 5.5. Data Transformation and Filtering by Integration -- 5.6. Intermittency -- 5.7. Discussion and Conclusion -- Acknowledgment -- References -- Chapter 6: Species distribution models for sustainable ecosystem management -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. Model Development Procedure -- 6.3. Selected Models: Characteristics and Examples -- 6.3.1. Decision Trees -- 6.3.1.1. General characteristics -- 6.3.1.2. Examples -- 6.3.1.3. Additional remarks -- 6.3.2. Generalised Linear Models -- 6.3.2.1. General characteristics -- 6.3.2.2. Examples -- 6.3.2.3. Additional remarks -- 6.3.3. Artificial Neural Networks -- 6.3.3.1. General characteristics -- 6.3.3.2. Examples -- 6.3.3.3. Additional remarks -- 6.3.4. Fuzzy Logic -- 6.3.4.1. General characteristics -- 6.3.4.2. Examples. , 6.3.4.3. Additional remarks -- 6.3.5. Bayesian Belief Networks -- 6.3.5.1. General characteristics -- 6.3.5.2. Examples -- 6.3.5.3. Additional remarks -- 6.3.6. Summary of Advantages and Drawbacks -- 6.4. Future Perspectives -- References -- Chapter 7: Ecosystem risk assessment modelling method for emerging pollutants -- 7.1. Review of Ecological Risk Assessment Model Methods -- 7.2. The Selected Model Method -- 7.3. Case Study: Application of AQUATOX Models for Ecosystem Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Lake Ecos -- 7.3.1. Application of Models -- 7.3.2. Models -- 7.3.2.1. AQUATOX model -- 7.3.2.2. Parameterization -- 7.3.2.2.1. Biomass and physiological parameters of organisms -- 7.3.2.2.2. Characteristics of Baiyangdian Lake -- 7.3.2.2.3. PAHs model parameters -- 7.3.2.2.4. Determining PAHs water contamination -- 7.3.2.2.5. Sensitivity analysis -- 7.3.3. Results of Model Application -- 7.3.3.1. Model calibration -- 7.3.3.2. Sensitivity analysis -- 7.3.3.3. PAHs risk estimation -- 7.3.4. Discussion on the Model Application -- 7.3.4.1. Compare experiment-derived NOEC with model NOEC for PAHs -- 7.3.4.2. Compare traditional method with model method for ecological risk assessment for PAHs -- 7.4. Perspectives -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 8: Development of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) models for setting up the management priority with water qua -- 8.1. Introduction -- 8.2. Methods -- 8.2.1. BMC Platform Development for SSD Models -- 8.2.1.1. BMC structure -- 8.2.1.2. BMC functions -- 8.2.1.2.1. Fitting SSD models -- 8.2.1.2.2. Determining the best fitting model based on DIC -- 8.2.1.2.3. Uncertainty analysis -- 8.2.1.2.4. Calculating the eco-risk indicator: PAF and msPAF -- 8.2.2. Framework for Determination of WQC and Screening of PCCs -- 8.2.2.1. WQCs calculation -- 8.2.2.2. PCCs screening. , 8.2.3. Overview of BTB Areas, Occurrence of PTSs, and Ecotoxicity Data Preprocessing -- 8.3. Results and Discussion -- 8.3.1. Evaluation of the BMC Platform -- 8.3.1.1. Selection of the best SSD models -- 8.3.1.2. Priority and posterior distribution of SSDs parameters -- 8.3.1.3. CI for uncertainty analysis -- 8.3.1.4. Validation of SSD models -- 8.3.2. Eco-risks with Uncertainty -- 8.3.2.1. Generic eco-risks for a specific substance -- 8.3.2.2. Joint eco-risk for multiple substances based on response addition -- 8.3.3. Evaluation of Various WQC Strategies -- 8.3.3.1. Abundance of toxicity data -- 8.3.3.2. Limitation of toxicity data -- 8.3.3.3. Lack of toxicity data -- 8.3.3.4. Implication for improvement of the local WQC in BTB -- 8.3.4. Ranking and Screening Using Various PCC Strategies -- 8.3.4.1. PNEC -- 8.3.4.2. Eco-risk calculated by BMC -- 8.3.4.3. EEC/PNEC -- 8.3.4.4. PCC list in BTB area -- 8.3.4.5. Implication for update of the local PCC list in BTB -- 8.4. Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 9: Modelling mixed forest stands: Methodological challenges and approaches -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.2. Review Methodology -- 9.2.1. Literature Review on Modelling Mixed Forest Stands -- 9.2.2. Ranking of Forest Models -- 9.3. Results and Discussion -- 9.3.1. Patterns of Ecological Model Use in Mixed Forests -- 9.3.2. Model Ranking -- 9.3.2.1. FORMIX -- 9.3.2.2. FORMIND -- 9.3.2.3. SILVA -- 9.3.2.4. FORECAST -- 9.3.3. Comparison of the Top-Ranked Models -- 9.4. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 10: Decision in agroecosystems advanced modelling techniques studying global changes in environmental sciences -- 10.1. Introduction -- 10.2. Approaches Based on Management Strategy Simulation -- 10.2.1. Simulation of Discrete Events in Agroecosystem Dynamics -- 10.2.2. Simulation of Agroecosystem Control. , 10.3. Design of Agroecosystem Management Strategy -- 10.3.1. Hierarchical Planning -- 10.3.1.1. HTN planning concepts -- 10.3.1.2. Planning approach in HTNs -- 10.3.1.3. Illustration based on the problem of selecting an operating mode in agriculture -- 10.3.2. Planning as Weighted Constraint Satisfaction -- 10.3.2.1. Constraint satisfaction problem -- 10.3.2.2. Networks of weighted constraints -- 10.3.2.3. Illustration based on crop allocation -- 10.3.3. Planning Under Uncertainty with Markov Decision Processes -- 10.3.3.1. Markov decision processes -- 10.3.3.2. Illustration using a forest management problem -- 10.4. Strategy Design by Simulation and Learning -- 10.5. Illustrations -- 10.5.1. SAFIHR: Modelling a Farming Agent -- 10.5.1.1. Decision problem -- 10.5.1.2. SAFIHR: Continuous planning -- 10.5.1.3. Overview of the overall operation -- 10.6. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 11: Ecosystem services in relation to carbon cycle of Asansol-Durgapur urban system, India -- 11.1. Introduction -- 11.2. Methods -- 11.2.1. Study Area -- 11.2.2. Urban Forest -- 11.2.3. Agriculture -- 11.2.4. Anthropogenic Activities -- 11.2.5. Cattle Production -- 11.3. Analysis and Discussion -- 11.3.1. Ecosystem Services and Disservices of Urban Forest -- 11.3.2. Ecosystem Services and Disservices of Agricultural Field -- 11.3.3. Ecosystem Services and Disservices Through Anthropogenic Activities -- 11.3.4. Ecosystem Services and Disservices Through Cattle Production -- 11.3.5. Impact on Biodiversity -- 11.3.6. Cultural Services and Disservices -- 11.3.7. Future Perspective of Ecosystem Services -- 11.4. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 12: Modelling the effects of climate change in estuarine ecosystems with coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical mode -- 12.1. Introduction -- 12.2. Coupled Hydrodynamic and Biogeochemical Models. , 12.3. Models as Effective Tools to Support Estuarine Climate Change Impacts Assessment.

Note: Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- About the Authors -- List of Abbreviations and Acronyms -- Pamirian Spaces: Mapping Process Geographies in the Mountainous Periphery -- Introduction -- Protection of Indigenous Rights? -- Alai and Pamirs: Environmental Niche and Hub of Ecological Resources -- Border Processes -- Scope of the Volume -- References -- Pamir or Pamirs: Perceptions and Interpretations -- Introduction -- Colonial Exploration of the Pamirian Void -- Classification of Exclusion and Inclusion -- The Pamir Highway: An Internal Artery Motivating Cross-­Border Road Construction -- Regionalisation of the Pamirs: Introduction of the Various Pamirian Regions -- Importance of the Pamirian Knot -- References -- Archival Records -- Who Is Mapping the Pamirs? A Review on Plant and Vegetation Sciences -- Introduction -- Data Collection -- Discussion of the Dataset -- Results -- Paper Statistics -- Journal Statistics -- Author Statistics -- Coauthor Networks -- Discussion -- References -- Geomorphic Features of the Eastern Pamirs, with a Focus on the Occurrence of Intermontane Basins -- Introduction -- Regional Setting -- Tectonic Features -- Present and Past Climatic Features -- Intermontane Basins in the Eastern Pamirs -- Tectonic Basins -- Basins Related to Downstream Damming -- Glaciated Basins -- Alichur Pamir -- Great Pamir -- Little Pamir -- Concluding Remarks -- References -- Water of the Pamir - Potential and Constraints -- Introduction -- Observed Glacier Changes -- Observed Runoff Changes -- Future Trends -- Conclusions -- References -- Khans, Kings, Communists, Warlords and Presidents: Afghan Kirghiz Socioeconomic Strategies for Extorting and Extracting from the State -- Introduction -- State-Society Relations: The Kirghiz Experience -- Political Capital -- Non-state Sources of Patronage -- A Direct Line to Kabul. , The Politics of State Patronage -- A Last Migration for the Afghan Kirghiz? -- References -- Changes in the Relationship Between Borders and Pastoral Mobility in Mountain Regions of Central Asia -- National Independence: An Obstacle for Transboundary Pastoral Mobility in Central Asia? -- Spatial Boundaries and Pastoral Mobility: A Tricky Relationship -- 'Containment of Chaotic Land Use' under Russia's Colonial Rule -- 'Nationalisation of the Means of Production' and Planned Economy in Soviet Times -- Contemporary Suppressed Transboundary Mobility -- Conclusion: Effects and Risks of Resource-Related 'Othering' Strategies -- Interview Partners -- References -- Seasonal Pasture Use and Vegetation Cover Changes in the Alai Valley, Kyrgyzstan -- Introduction -- Study Area -- Data Set and Methods -- Interviews -- Satellite-Based Vegetation Index Data -- Grazing Intensity -- GIS -- Results -- Seasonal Pasture Use -- Changes in Vegetated Cover -- Analysis of Grazing Intensity -- Discussion -- Conclusions -- References -- Diversity of Seasonal Migration of Livestock in the Eastern Alai Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan -- Introduction -- Study Area and Method -- Movement Patterns of Livestock Grazing in the Eastern Alai Valley -- Sary-Tash -- Taldy-Suu -- Seasonal Pastoral Practise and Natural Environments in the Eastern and Western Alai Valley -- Discussion -- Comparison Between the Eastern and Western Valleys -- Inequality of Pastureland Use and Future Sustainability -- Conclusions -- References -- Kezüü and Novad: A Form of Pastoralism in the Eastern Alai Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan -- Introduction -- Development of the Cooperative Daily Grazing System of Kezüü/Novad in the Alai Valley -- Study Area and Method -- The Cooperative Daily Grazing System of Kezüü in Sary-Tash and Taldy-Suu -- Kezüü in Sary-Tash AA -- Kezüü in Taldy-Suu AA. , Types of Kezüü and Novad Throughout the Entire Alai Valley -- Types of Kezüü and Novad Throughout the Entire Alai Valley -- References -- External Support and Local Agency: Uncertain Transformations of Livelihoods in the Pamirian Borderland of Tajikistan -- Introduction -- Borderlands as Social Space -- Historic Legacy: The Pamirs as a Soviet Borderland -- Persistence and Change in Tajikistan's Borderland During the Transition Period -- Russian Border Forces: Persisting Role after the Soviet Dissolution -- Post-Soviet Economic Realities: Humanitarian Relief and Dissolution of Exchange Relations -- Livelihood Trajectories in the Border District -- Less Urgency for Economic Success -- 'Hidden' Emergency Assistance -- Exclusive Buffer Zone Access -- Conclusions -- Interview Partners -- References -- The Current Status of Lifestyle and Occupations in the Wakhan Area of Tajikistan -- Introduction -- General Description of the Wakhan Area and Its Inhabitants -- Status of Agriculture and Local Society -- Agriculture and Other Employment -- Infrastructure and Education -- Introducing Sustainable Tourism -- Conclusions -- References -- Political Ecology of Human-Environment Change in Gojal, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan -- Introduction -- Legal and Constitutional Liminality -- Global Conservation -- Transnational Ismailism -- Road Infrastructure -- The Attabad Landslide -- Conclusion -- References -- The Changes in Regional Structure and Land Use Related to External Factors in Hussaini Village, Northern Pakistan -- Introduction -- Changes in the Regional Structure and Farmland Use in Hussaini Village -- The Period of Isolation before the Opening of the Karakoram Highway -- The Period of Opening Up: The 1980s Until the Late 2000s -- The Period between 2010 and the Present after the Emergence of the Dammed Lake -- Conclusions -- References. , Humanitarianism Across Mountain Valleys: "Shia Aid" and Development Encounters in Northern Pakistan and Eastern Tajikistan -- Introduction -- Entering Contact Zones -- Developing Hunza -- Education for Nagar -- Saving and Substituting in the State in Gorno-Badakhshan -- Worldly Duties and Sectarian Aims -- Conclusion -- References -- History of the Development of the Pamir Region of Tajikistan (Gorno-Badakhshan) -- Introduction -- Early Development History -- Nineteenth-Century Russian Exploration -- Permanent Russian Presence and Early Development Activities -- Population Growth -- Soviet Period -- Socialist Revolution in a Muslim Country -- Food Production -- The Post-Soviet Period and the Aga Khan Foundation -- A New Paradigm -- Sustainable Solutions -- Health -- Emergency Needs -- Pharmaceuticals -- Essential Hospital Services -- Health Management Information System (HMIS) -- Education -- Agricultural Reform -- Food Diversification -- Village-Level Autonomy -- Gender and Social Equality -- Energy -- Challenges and Future Prospects -- References -- Conclusions: Why Do We Need to Make Efforts to Map the Transition? -- Introduction -- Transitions: Driven by External Pressures or Internal Efforts? -- The Next Step -- References.