Description: Overfishing and rapid environmental shifts pose severe challenges to the resilience and viability of marine fish populations. To develop and implement measures that enhance species’ adaptive potential to cope with those pressures while, at the same time, ensuring sustainable exploitation rates is part of the central goal of fisheries management. Here, we argue that a combination of biophysical modelling and population genomic assessments offer ideal management tools to define stocks, their physical connectivity and ultimately, their short-term adaptive potential. To date, biophysical modelling has often been confined to fisheries ecology whereas evolutionary hypotheses remain rarely considered. When identified, connectivity patterns are seldom explored to understand the evolution and distribution of adaptive genetic variation, a proxy for species’ evolutionary potential. Here, we describe a framework that expands on the conventional seascape genetics approach by using biophysical modelling and population genomics. The goals are to identify connectivity patterns and selective pressures, as well as putative adaptive variants directly responding to the selective pressures and, ultimately, link both to define testable hypotheses over species response to shifting ecological conditions and overexploitation.

Description: Abstract Legal requirement in Europe asks for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in European seas, including considerations of trophic interactions and minimization of negative impacts of fishing on food webs and ecosystem functioning. Focusing on the interaction between fisheries and ecosystem components, the trophic model presented here shows for the first time the “big picture” of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) food web by quantifying structure and flows between all trophic elements and the impact of fisheries that were and are active in the area, based on best available recent data. Model results show that fishing pressures exerted on the WBS since the early nineties of the past century forces not only top predators such as harbour porpoises and seals but also cod and other demersal fish to heavily compete for fish as food and to cover their dietary needs by shifting to organisms lower in the trophic web, mainly to benthic macrofauna and / or search for suitable prey in adjacent ecosystems such as Kattegat, Skagerrak, central Baltic Sea and North Sea. While common sense implementations of EBFM have been proposed, such as fishing all stocks below Fmsy and reducing fishing pressure even further for forage fish such as herring and sprat, few studies compared such fishing to alternative scenarios. Different options for EBFM, with regards to recovery of depleted stocks and sustainable future catches, are presented here based on the WBS ecosystem model, the legal framework given by the new Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union. The model explores four legally valid future fishery scenarios: 1) business as usual, 2) maximum sustainable fishing (F = Fmsy), 3) half of Fmsy, and 4) EBFM with F = 0.5 Fmsy for forage fish and F = 0.8 Fmsy for other fish. In addition, a “No-fishing” scenario demonstrates, that neither individual stocks nor the whole system would collapse when all fishing activities from 2017 on would cease. Simulations show that “Business as usual” would perpetuate low 2016 catches from depleted stocks in an unstable ecosystem where endangered species may be lost. In contrast, an “EBFM” scenario - with herring and sprat fished at 0.5 Fmsy level and cod and other stocks fished at 0.8 Fmsy level - allows the recovery of all stocks with strongly increased catches close to the maximum (at Fmsy) for cod and flatfish and catches similar to the 2016 level for herring and sprat but with strongly reduced fishing effort. Model and methodology presented here are considered suitable to assess MSFD Criterion D4C2 in the WBS.

Description: Prior to the 3rd annual meeting in month 32 a project progress report for the external project boards will be prepared to enable them to as good as possible prepared for the meeting and to ensure consequently that AtlantOS receives as constructive as possible recommendations from the board. The report together with the external summary board meeting report will be part of D11.6

Description: This paper looks at the marine science-policy landscape and brings together different policy discussions aimed at the development of a European Ocean Observing System, in the context of AtlantOS and how this relates to wider Atlantic and global policy drivers and existing and emerging wider ocean observation coordination. It has a European focus, looking at proposed mechanisms and components for ocean coordination and governance and the potential contribution of existing organizations and initiatives. The report serves as a reference document for, and contribution to, the European Strategy on Atlantic Ocean Observing and international BluePrint for an integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System.

Description: Fecundity and reproductive potential are important factors to be considered in evaluating trajectories and demographic predictions of fish populations. Therefore, characterizing the nature and quantifying the extent of any reproductive failure should be considered in fisheries studies. Here, we describe morphological changes in developed ovaries of autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus membras) caught in the northern Baltic Sea and evaluate the magnitude of this phenomenon during 3 consecutive years. Visibly, abnormal ovaries were histologically characterized by irregular-shaped oocytes in a vitellogenic or final maturation stage with coagulative necrosis and liquefaction of the yolk sphere, degraded follicle membranes, and fibrinous adhesion among oocytes. Such degeneration is presumed to cause complete infertility in the fish. The frequency of fish with abnormal ovaries varied annually between 10 and 15% among all females sampled. However, specific sampling events showed up to 90% females with abnormal gonads. The specific cause of this abnormality remains unknown; however, prevalence was associated with unfavourable environmental conditions encountered before spawning. Thus, ovarian abnormality was positively related to water temperatures, with the highest level found at ≥15°C and negatively related to the frequency of strong winds. The frequency of occurrence of abnormal gonads decreased with the progression of spawning from August to October. The observed abnormality and associated spawning failure will negatively affect the realized fecundity of autumn herring in the Baltic Sea and may act as a limiting factor for recovery of the stock, which has experienced profound depression during the last three decades.

Description: Fisheries and marine ecosystem-based management requires a holistic understanding of the dynamics of fish communities and their responses to changes in environmental conditions. Environmental conditions can simultaneously shape the spatial distribution and the temporal dynamics of a population, which together can trigger changes in the functional structure of communities. Here, we developed a comprehensive framework based on complementary multivariate statistical methodologies to simultaneously investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the spatial, temporal and functional dynamics of species assemblages. The framework is tested using survey data collected during more than 4000 fisheries hauls over the Baltic Sea between 2001 and 2016. The approach revealed the Baltic fish community to be structured into three sub-assemblages along a strong and temporally stable salinity gradient decreasing from West to the East. Additionally, we highlight a mismatch between species and functional richness associated with a lower functional redundancy in the Baltic Proper compared with other sub-areas, suggesting an ecosystem more susceptible to external pressures. Based on a large dataset of community data analysed in an innovative and comprehensive way, we could disentangle the effects of environmental changes on the structure of biotic communities-key information for the management and conservation of ecosystems.

Description: The model SEAPODYM (Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics) has now reached a degree of maturity allowing to use it for testing management scenarios and to implement operational monitoring. It is proposed to implement an operational forecast system for the Atlantic albacore tuna. The system will use physical field (temperature, currents and primary production) from Copernicus CMEMS. The sensitivity to improved physical variables with data assimilation will be analysed and the interest of this operational production of tuna stock distributions evaluated in collaboration with colleagues involved in the management of tuna fisheries at ICCAT and FAO, and the AtlantOS fitness for this modelling analysed [D8.9]

Description: Report on biological EOVs using newly defined habitats of the North Atlantic

Description: Report on the current observing status in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, containing the results of the investigation on regional observing activities, systems, and connectivity in relation to climate and ecosystems

Description: Validated prototypes of new and enhanced biogeochemical and biological sensors and instruments. Validation will be undertaken in the laboratory, in test scenarios, and by deployment in operational conditions