Description: Spatio-temporal analysis of the urban–rural gradient structure: an application in a Mediterranean mountainous landscape (Serra San Bruno, Italy) Earth System Dynamics, 3, 263-279, 2012 Author(s): G. Modica, M. Vizzari, M. Pollino, C. R. Fichera, P. Zoccali, and S. Di Fazio The most recent and significant transformations of European landscapes have occurred as a consequence of a series of diffused, varied and often connected phenomena: urban growth and sprawl, agricultural intensification in the most suitable areas and agricultural abandonment in marginal areas. These phenomena can affect dramatically ecosystems' structure and functioning, since certain modifications cause landscape fragmentation while others tend to increase homogeneity. Thus, a thorough comprehension of the evolution trends of landscapes, in particular those linked to urban-rural relations, is crucial for a sustainable landscape planning. In this framework, the main objectives of the present paper are: (a) to investigate Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) transformations and dynamics that occurred over the period 1955–2006 in the municipality of Serra San Bruno (Calabria, Italy), an area particularly representative of the Mediterranean mountainous landscape; (b) to compare the settlement growth with the urban planning tools in charge in the study area; (c) to examine the relationship between urban–rural gradient, landscape metrics, demographic and physical variables; (d) to investigate the evolution of urban–rural gradient composition and configuration along significant axes of landscape changes. Data with a high level of detail (minimum mapping unit 0.2 ha) were obtained through the digitisation of historical aerial photographs and digital orthophotos identifying LULC classes according to the Corine Land Cover legend. The investigated period was divided into four significant time intervals, which were specifically analysed to detect LULC changes. Differently from previous studies, in the present research the spatio-temporal analysis of urban–rural gradient was performed through three subsequent steps: (1) kernel density analysis of settlements; (2) analysis of landscape structure by means of metrics calculated using a moving window method; (3) analysis of composition and configuration of the urban–rural gradient within three landscape profiles located along significant axes of LULC change. The use of thematic overlays and transition matrices enabled a precise identification of the LULC changes that had taken place over the examined period. As a result, a detailed description and mapping of the landscape dynamics were obtained. Furthermore, landscape profiling technique, using continuous data, allowed an innovative and valuable approach for analysing and interpreting urban–rural gradient structure over space and time.

Description: The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family Earth System Dynamics, 3, 245-261, 2012 Author(s): G. M. Martin and R. C. Levine Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework (one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle), to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.

Description: The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change Earth System Dynamics, 3, 233-243, 2012 Author(s): U. Port, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM) that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO 2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300. Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO 2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO 2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

Description: Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations Earth System Dynamics, 3, 213-231, 2012 Author(s): A. J. Pitman, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. B. Avila, L. V. Alexander, J.-P. Boisier, V. Brovkin, C. Delire, F. Cruz, M. G. Donat, V. Gayler, B. van den Hurk, C. Reick, and A. Voldoire The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC) on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO 2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO 2 , the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO 2 except for one model where the CO 2 -caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

Description: Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective Earth System Dynamics, 3, 199-212, 2012 Author(s): A. Alessandri, P. G. Fogli, M. Vichi, and N. Zeng Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

Description: Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model Earth System Dynamics, 3, 189-197, 2012 Author(s): M. Mengel, A. Levermann, C.-F. Schleussner, and A. Born Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Description: Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming Earth System Dynamics, 3, 173-188, 2012 Author(s): M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated, and the perceived relationship between these variables is a spurious regression phenomenon. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcings might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

Description: Urbanization suitability maps: a dynamic spatial decision support system for sustainable land use Earth System Dynamics, 3, 157-171, 2012 Author(s): M. Cerreta and P. De Toro Recent developments in land consumption assessment identify the need to implement integrated evaluation approaches, with particular attention to the development of multidimensional tools for guiding and managing sustainable land use. Land use policy decisions are implemented mostly through spatial planning and its related zoning. This involves trade-offs between many sectorial interests and conflicting challenges seeking win-win solutions. In order to identify a decision-making process for land use allocation, this paper proposes a methodological approach for developing a Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System (DSDSS), denominated Integrated Spatial Assessment (ISA), supported by Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Through empirical investigation in an operative case study, an integrated evaluation approach implemented in a DSDSS helps produce "urbanization suitability maps" in which spatial analysis combined with multi-criteria evaluation methods proved to be useful for both facing the main issues relating to land consumption as well as minimizing environmental impacts of spatial planning.

Description: Technology and human purpose: the problem of solids transport on the Earth's surface Earth System Dynamics, 3, 149-156, 2012 Author(s): P. K. Haff Displacement of mass of limited deformability ("solids") on the Earth's surface is opposed by friction and (the analog of) form resistance – impediments relaxed by rotational motion, self-powering of mass units, and transport infrastructure. These features of solids transport first evolved in the biosphere prior to the emergence of technology, allowing slope-independent, diffusion-like motion of discrete objects as massive as several tons, as illustrated by animal foraging and movement along game trails. However, high-energy-consumption technology powered by fossil fuels required a mechanism that could support fast advective transport of solids, i.e., long-distance, high-volume, high-speed, unidirectional, slope-independent transport across the land surface of materials like coal, containerized fluids, minerals, and economic goods. Pre-technology nature was able to sustain regional- and global-scale advection only in the limited form of piggybacking on geophysical flows of water (river sediment) and air (dust). The appearance of a mechanism for sustained advection of solids independent of fluid flows and gravity appeared only upon the emergence of human purpose. Purpose enables solids advection by, in effect, simulating a continuous potential gradient, otherwise lacking, between discrete and widely separated fossil-fuel energy sources and sinks. Invoking purpose as a mechanism in solids advection is an example of the need to import anthropic principles and concepts into the language and methodology of modern Earth system dynamics. As part of the emergence of a generalized solids advection mechanism, several additional transport requirements necessary to the function of modern large-scale technological systems were also satisfied. These include spatially accurate delivery of advected payload, targetability to essentially arbitrarily located destinations (such as cities), and independence of structure of advected payload from transport mechanism. The latter property enables the transport of an onboard power supply and delivery of persistent-memory, high-information-content payload, such as technological artifacts ("parts").

Description: On the relationship between metrics to compare greenhouse gases – the case of IGTP, GWP and SGTP Earth System Dynamics, 3, 139-147, 2012 Author(s): C. Azar and D. J. A. Johansson Metrics for comparing greenhouse gases are analyzed, with a particular focus on the integrated temperature change potential (IGTP) following a call from IPCC to investigate this metric. It is shown that the global warming potential (GWP) and IGTP are asymptotically equal when the time horizon approaches infinity when standard assumptions about a constant background atmosphere are used. The difference between IGTP and GWP is estimated for different greenhouse gases using an upwelling diffusion energy balance model with different assumptions on the climate sensitivity and the parameterization governing the rate of ocean heat uptake. It is found that GWP and IGTP differ by some 10% for CH 4 (for a time horizon of less than 500 yr), and that the relative difference between GWP and IGTP is less for gases with a longer atmospheric life time. Further, it is found that the relative difference between IGTP and GWP increases with increasing rates of ocean heat uptake and increasing climate sensitivity since these changes increase the inertia of the climate system. Furthermore, it is shown that IGTP is equivalent to the sustained global temperature change potential (SGTP) under standard assumptions when estimating GWPs. We conclude that while it matters little for abatement policy whether IGTP, SGTP or GWP is used when making trade-offs, it is more important to decide whether society should use a metric based on time integrated effects such as GWP, a "snapshot metric" as GTP, or metrics where both economics and physical considerations are taken into account. Of equal importance is the question of how to choose the time horizon, regardless of the chosen metric. For both these overall questions, value judgments are needed.