Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Description: In July 2007 GFZ hosted ILP’s first Potsdam Conference, titled “Frontiers in Integrated Solid Earth Sciences”. The results of this meeting were presented in an over 400 pages large Springer book, the first volume of a new series on the International Year of Planet Earth (IYPE). In October 2010 ILP’s Second Potsdam Conference took place, entitled “Solid Earth – Basic Science for the Human Habitat”, again in Potsdam. More than 70 scientists from more than 20 states worldwide came together and shared their results, ideas and visions. This time, in September 2015, ILP’s 35th birthday was the motivation for “Celebrating Excellence in Solid Earth Sciences”. Together with more than 50 scientists, members of the ILP Task Forces and Coordinating Committees, the ILP bureau and ILP’s office came together for three days in September.

Description: Global change has caused a worldwide increase in reports of Vibrio-associated diseases with ecosystem-wide impacts on humans and marine animals. In Europe, higher prevalence of human infections followed regional climatic trends with outbreaks occurring during episodes of unusually warm weather. Similar patterns were also observed in Vibrio-associated diseases affecting marine organisms such as fish, bivalves and corals. Basic knowledge is still lacking on the ecology and evolutionary biology of these bacteria as well as on their virulence mechanisms. Current limitations in experimental systems to study infection and the lack of diagnostic tools still prevent a better understanding of Vibrio emergence. A major challenge is to foster cooperation between fundamental and applied research in order to investigate the consequences of pathogen emergence in natural Vibrio populations and answer federative questions that meet societal needs. Here we report the proceedings of the first European workshop dedicated to these specific goals of the Vibrio research community by connecting current knowledge to societal issues related to ocean health and food security.

Description: In our meeting Dynamic Earth – from Alfred Wegener to today and beyond we will review how Wegener‘s findings evolved into to modern Earth system science including its impact on climate and the Earth surface, and how this system affects our daily life: where humans live, what risks we are exposed to, where we find our resources. In the meeting we will hold sessions that cover the entire geoscience spectrum (from mineral physics over solid earth geodynamics to the climate sciences) and that explore the consequences of Wegeners findings on how humans use our planet today (from energy and mineral resources over georisks to utilisation of the subsurface and materials for modern society). We have invited keynote speakers that are eminent international scientists in these fields. In events open to the general public we will get an account of Wegeners final trip to Greenland on the history of science of his hypothesis.

Description: Recent mobilisation of soil organic matter (SOM) in permafrost of the northern high latitudes is thought to have a significant impact on the carbon balance in the atmosphere. However, the environmental processes which influence SOM accumulation and remobilisation still need to be investigated more accurately. This study investigates the quantity and quality of SOM on Herschel Island in the western Canadian Arctic in relation to various landscape characteristics. To reach this goal, soil moisture, total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) contents, stable carbon isotopes (∂¹³C) and TOC/TN ratios (C/N) were determined on 128 samples from twelve sediment cores reaching up to 250 cm depth. Drilling locations were chosen based on morphology, vegetation and soil properties and supported by satellite imagery and air photos. Seasonal thaw depths (active layer depths) correlate with ground disturbance and vegetation cover and lie between 20 and 100 cm. Well-preserved SOM is accumulated in the active layer and subjacent ice-rich permafrost of wet polygonal tundra. Uplands, hummocky tussock tundra and alluvial fans cover more than 50 % of the island and show heterogeneous SOM storage characteristics with considerable TOC contents being limited to the active layer. Disturbed areas with slope gradients greater than 6° show strong SOM degradation with low TOC contents throughout the active layer and permafrost strata. Linear regression and principal component analysis (PCA) shows that a decreasing SOM content is driven by increasing ground disturbance and reduced vegetation cover. Improved drainage decreases the preservation of SOM in the active layer. Future deepening of the active layer because of increasing temperatures and ground disturbance will remobilise SOM stored in ice-rich permafrost. This might increase carbon dioxide and methane emissions from permafrost landscapes.

Description: Im Auftrag des Bundesforschungsministeriums hat das Wuppertal Institut eine Studie zur systemischen Betrachtung und Modellierung der Bioökonomie erstellt. Sie zeigt Wege auf, die komplexen sozio-ökonomischen Zusammenhänge und Umweltauswirkungen der Bioökonomie zu erfassen und soll als Grundlage für den Aufbau eines kontinuierlichen Monitorings dienen. Die Autor(inn)en erfassten Indikatoren und Modellierungsmethoden mit Bezug zur Bioökonomie und weisen auf bestehende Lücken hin: Diese finden sich vor allem bei der Erfassung neuer technologiegetriebener Sektoren, der systemischen Betrachtung eines nachhaltigen Konsums und bei der Modellierung der Zusammenhänge zwischen Innovationen, Wirtschaftswachstum und Ressourcenverbrauch (insbesondere die Landnutzung). Zur Umsetzung eines systemischen Monitorings empfiehlt die Studie das folgende Vorgehen: Unter Zuhilfenahme des DPSIR-Konzeptes (Analyse von Wirkungsbeziehungen nach Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts und Responses) sollten Schlüsselindikatoren und Nachhaltigkeitsziele in einem Indikatoren-"Dashboard" zusammengeführt werden. Benötigt wird zudem ein Werkzeugkasten von Methoden, der vor allem integrierte Analyse- und Bewertungsmodelle sowie ein systemisch konzipiertes Metamodell umfasst.

Description: Unternehmen sind heutzutage mit einer Vielzahl von Herausforderungen und Veränderungen konfrontiert, die zugleich Chance und Risiko für ihre wirtschaftliche Weiterentwicklung darstellen. Dazu gehören nicht nur grundlegende Trends wie Klimawandel, Ressourcenknappheit oder Urbanisierung, sondern auch der Wandel von Technologien, Geschäftsmodellen, gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen oder der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz. All dies hat globale und nationale Veränderungen in Märkten zur Folge und stellt die darin operierenden Unternehmen vor konkrete Herausforderungen. Die Auseinandersetzung mit der Zukunft gewinnt somit immer mehr an Bedeutung und stellt einen wichtigen Faktor für den langfristigen und nachhaltigen Erfolg eines Unternehmens dar. Die Strategische Frühaufklärung unterstützt Unternehmen dabei, Herausforderungen und Veränderungen rechtzeitig zu identifizieren und darauf zu reagieren. Stefan Reicherz erstellt eine flexible Blaupause hierfür: Individuell an ein Unternehmen angepasst, liefert sie diesem die notwendigen Informationen und Hilfsmittel, um erfolgreiche Strategische Frühaufklärung durchzuführen - und damit aus Risiken Chancen werden zu lassen.