Description: Public fear for environmental and health impacts or potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a large enough scale so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO2 under the seabed moves this climate mitigation option away from inhabited areas and could thereby take away some of the opposition towards this technology. Given that in the event of CO2 leakage for sub-seabed CCS the ocean would function as buffer for receiving this greenhouse gas, rather than the atmosphere, offshore CCS could particularly address concerns over the climatic impacts of CO2 seepage. In this paper we point out that recent geological studies confirm that leakage for individual offshore CCS operations may be highly unlikely from a technical point of view, if storage sites are well chosen, well managed and well monitored. But we argue that on a global long-term scale, for an ensemble of thousands or millions of storage sites, leakage of CO2 could take place in certain cases and/or countries for e.g. economic, institutional, legal or safety cultural reasons. We investigated what the impact could be in terms of temperature increase and ocean acidification if leakage would nevertheless occur, and addressed the question what the relative roles could be of on- and offshore CCS if mankind desires to divert the atmospheric damages resulting from climate change. For this purpose, we constructed a top-down energy-environment-economy model, with which we performed a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation with on- and offshore CCS as specific CO2 abatement options. One of our main conclusions is that even if there is non-zero leakage for CCS activity on a global scale, there is high probability that both onshore and offshore CCS could – on economic grounds – still account for anywhere between 20% and 80% of all future CO2 abatement efforts under a broad range of CCS cost assumptions.

Description: Abstract Legal requirement in Europe asks for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in European seas, including considerations of trophic interactions and minimization of negative impacts of fishing on food webs and ecosystem functioning. Focusing on the interaction between fisheries and ecosystem components, the trophic model presented here shows for the first time the “big picture” of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) food web by quantifying structure and flows between all trophic elements and the impact of fisheries that were and are active in the area, based on best available recent data. Model results show that fishing pressures exerted on the WBS since the early nineties of the past century forces not only top predators such as harbour porpoises and seals but also cod and other demersal fish to heavily compete for fish as food and to cover their dietary needs by shifting to organisms lower in the trophic web, mainly to benthic macrofauna and / or search for suitable prey in adjacent ecosystems such as Kattegat, Skagerrak, central Baltic Sea and North Sea. While common sense implementations of EBFM have been proposed, such as fishing all stocks below Fmsy and reducing fishing pressure even further for forage fish such as herring and sprat, few studies compared such fishing to alternative scenarios. Different options for EBFM, with regards to recovery of depleted stocks and sustainable future catches, are presented here based on the WBS ecosystem model, the legal framework given by the new Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union. The model explores four legally valid future fishery scenarios: 1) business as usual, 2) maximum sustainable fishing (F = Fmsy), 3) half of Fmsy, and 4) EBFM with F = 0.5 Fmsy for forage fish and F = 0.8 Fmsy for other fish. In addition, a “No-fishing” scenario demonstrates, that neither individual stocks nor the whole system would collapse when all fishing activities from 2017 on would cease. Simulations show that “Business as usual” would perpetuate low 2016 catches from depleted stocks in an unstable ecosystem where endangered species may be lost. In contrast, an “EBFM” scenario - with herring and sprat fished at 0.5 Fmsy level and cod and other stocks fished at 0.8 Fmsy level - allows the recovery of all stocks with strongly increased catches close to the maximum (at Fmsy) for cod and flatfish and catches similar to the 2016 level for herring and sprat but with strongly reduced fishing effort. Model and methodology presented here are considered suitable to assess MSFD Criterion D4C2 in the WBS.

Description: Bacteria of the genus Vibrio occur at a continuum from free-living to symbiotic life forms, including opportunists and pathogens, that can contribute to severe diseases, for instance summer mortality events of Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas. While most studies focused on Vibrio isolated from moribund oysters during mortality outbreaks, investigations of the Vibrio community in healthy oysters are rare. Therefore, we characterized the persistence, diversity, seasonal dynamics, and pathogenicity of the Vibrio community isolated from healthy Pacific oysters. In a reciprocal transplant experiment we repeatedly sampled hemolymph from adult Pacific oysters to differentiate population from site-specific effects during six months of in situ incubation in the field. We characterized virulence phenotypes and genomic diversity based on multilocus sequence typing in a total of 70 Vibrio strains. Based on controlled infection experiments we could show that strains with the ability to colonize healthy adult oysters can also have the potential to induce high mortality rates on larvae. Diversity and abundance of Vibrio varied significantly over time with highest values during and after spawning season. Vibrio communities from transplanted and stationary oysters converged over time, indicating that communities were not population specific, but rather assemble from the surrounding environment forming communities, some of which can persist over longer periods

Description: Report on the current observing status in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, containing the results of the investigation on regional observing activities, systems, and connectivity in relation to climate and ecosystems

Description: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a species of great ecological and economical importance in the Baltic Sea. Here, two genetically differentiated stocks, the western and the eastern Baltic cod, display substantial mechanical mixing, hampering our understanding of cod ecology and impeding stock assessments and management. Based on whole-genome re-sequencing data from reference samples obtained from the study area, we designed two different panels of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms markers (SNPs), which take into account the exceptional genome architecture of cod. A minimum panel of 20 diagnostic SNPs and an extended panel (20 diagnostic and 18 biologically informative SNPs, 38 in total) were developed and validated to distinguish unambiguously between the western and the eastern Baltic cod stocks and to enable studies of local adaptation to the specific environment in the Baltic Sea, respectively. We tested both panels on cod sampled from the southern Baltic Sea (n = 603) caught in 2015 and 2016. Genotyping results showed that catches from the mixing zone in the Arkona Sea, were composed of similar proportions of individuals of the western and the eastern stock. Catches from adjacent areas to the east, the Bornholm Basin and Gdańsk Deep, were exclusively composed of eastern Baltic cod, whereas catches from adjacent western areas (Belt Sea and Öresund) were composed of western Baltic cod. Interestingly, the two Baltic cod stocks showed strong genetic differences at loci associated with life-history trait candidate genes, highlighting the species’ potential for ecological adaptation even at small geographical scales. The minimum and the extended panel of SNP markers presented in this study provide powerful tools for future applications in research and fisheries management to further illuminate the mixing dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea and to better understand Baltic cod ecology.

Description: Diatoms can occur as single cells or as chain-forming aggregates. These two strategies affect buoyancy, predator evasion, light absorption and nutrient uptake. Adjacent cells in chains establish connections through various processes that determine strength and flexibility of the bonds, and at distinct cellular locations defining colony structure. Chain length has been found to vary with temperature and nutrient availability as well as being positively correlated with growth rate. However, the potential effect of enhanced carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and consequent changes in seawater carbonate chemistry on chain formation is virtually unknown. Here we report on experiments with semi-continuous cultures of the freshly isolated diatom Asterionellopsis glacialis grown under increasing CO2 levels ranging from 320 to 3400 mu atm. We show that the number of cells comprising a chain, and therefore chain length, increases with rising CO2 concentrations. We also demonstrate that while cell division rate changes with CO2 concentrations, carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cellular quotas vary proportionally, evident by unchanged organic matter ratios. Finally, beyond the optimum CO2 concentration for growth, carbon allocation changes from cellular storage to increased exudation of dissolved organic carbon. The observed structural adjustment in colony size could enable growth at high CO2 levels, since longer, spiral-shaped chains are likely to create microclimates with higher pH during the light period. Moreover increased chain length of Asterionellopsis glacialis may influence buoyancy and, consequently, affect competitive fitness as well as sinking rates. This would potentially impact the delicate balance between the microbial loop and export of organic matter, with consequences for atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Description: Assessment of the observing system fitness for storm surge forecasting and warning in the Atlantic

Description: Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part of the EU ecosystem approach to support sustainable herring fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea.

Description: Prior to the 4th annual AtlantOS meeting in month 48 a project progress report for the external project boards (EB and ISTAB) will be prepared to enable them to be as good as possible prepared for the meeting and to ensure consequently that AtlantOS receives as constructive as possible recommendations from the boards. This report, together with the two external summary board meeting reports, which will be requested from the EB and ISTAB, will represent D11.7.