Description:    High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy. Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems, disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public) and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9889-2 Authors Chun-Pin Tseng, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Armaments Bureau, Taoyuan, Taiwan Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: .   This contribution reflects on the comments of Peter Allen [1], Bikas K. Chakrabarti [2], Péter Érdi [3], Juval Portugali [4], Sorin Solomon [5], and Stefan Thurner [6] on three White Papers (WP) of the EU Support Action Visioneer (www.visioneer.ethz.ch). These White Papers are entitled “From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crises” (WP 1) [7], “From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design” (WP 2) [8], and “How to Create an Innovation Accelerator” (WP 3) [9]. In our reflections, the need and feasibility of a “Knowledge Accelerator” is further substantiated by fundamental considerations and recent events around the globe. newpara The Visioneer White Papers propose research to be carried out that will improve our understanding of complex techno-socio-economic systems and their interaction with the environment. Thereby, they aim to stimulate multi-disciplinary collaborations between ICT, the social sciences, and complexity science. Moreover, they suggest combining the potential of massive real-time data, theoretical models, large-scale computer simulations and participatory online platforms. By doing so, it would become possible to explore various futures and to expand the limits of human imagination when it comes to the assessment of the often counter-intuitive behavior of these complex techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In this contribution, we also highlight the importance of a pluralistic modeling approach and, in particular, the need for a fruitful interaction between quantitative and qualitative research approaches. newpara In an appendix we briefly summarize the concept of the FuturICT flagship project, which will build on and go beyond the proposals made by the Visioneer White Papers. EU flagships are ambitious multi-disciplinary high-risk projects with a duration of at least 10 years amounting to an envisaged overall budget of 1 billion EUR [10]. The goal of the FuturICT flagship initiative is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Content Type Journal Article Pages 165-186 DOI 10.1140/epjst/e2011-01410-7 Authors D. Helbing, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Balietti, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Bishop, Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT UK P. Lukowicz, University of Passau, Innstrasse 43, 94032 Passau, Germany Journal The European Physical Journal - Special Topics Online ISSN 1951-6401 Print ISSN 1951-6355 Journal Volume Volume 195 Journal Issue Volume 195, Number 1

Description:    This article explores how the causes and impacts of a flood event as perceived by local people shape immediate responses and future mitigation efforts in mountainous northwest Vietnam. Local flood perception is contrasted with scientific perspectives to determine whether a singular flood event will trigger adjustments in mitigation strategies in an otherwise rarely flood-affected area. We present findings from interdisciplinary research drawing on both socioeconomic and biophysical data. Evidence suggests that individual farmers’ willingness to engage in flood mitigation is curbed by the common perception that flooding is caused by the interplay of a bundle of external factors, with climatic factors and water management failures being the most prominent ones. Most farmers did not link the severity of flooding to existing land use systems, thus underlining the lack of a sense of personal responsibility among farmers for flood mitigation measures. We conclude that local governments cannot depend on there being a sufficient degree of intrinsic motivation among farmers to make them implement soil conservation techniques to mitigate future flooding. Policy makers will need to design measures to raise farmers’ awareness of the complex interplay between land use and hydrology and to enhance collective action in soil conservation by providing appropriate incentives and implementing coherent long-term strategies. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9992-4 Authors Iven Schad, Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, Agricultural Communication and Extension, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Petra Schmitter, Department of Plant Production and Agro-Ecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Camille Saint-Macary, Department of Rural Development and Policy, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Andreas Neef, Resource Governance and Participatory Development, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Marc Lamers, Department of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics Section, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany La Nguyen, Department of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics Section, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Thomas Hilger, Department of Plant Production and Agro-Ecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Volker Hoffmann, Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, Agricultural Communication and Extension, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X