Description:    To avoid dangerous changes to the climate system, the global mean temperature must not rise more than 2 °C from the 19th century level. The German Advisory Council on Global Change recommends maintaining the rate of change in temperature to within 0.2 °C per decade. This paper supposes that a geoengineering option of solar radiation management (SRM) by injecting aerosol into the Earth’s stratosphere becomes applicable in the future to meet those temperature conditions. However, a failure to continue the use of this option could cause a rapid temperature rebound, and thus we propose a principle of SRM use that the temperature conditions must be satisfied even after SRM termination at any time. We present economically optimal trajectories of the amounts of SRM use and the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under our principle by using an economic model of climate change. To meet the temperature conditions described above, the SRM must reduce radiative forcing by slightly more than 1 W/m 2 at most, and industrial CO 2 emissions must be cut by 80 % by the end of the 21st century relative to 2005, assuming a climate sensitivity of 3 °C. Lower-level use of SRM is required for a higher climate sensitivity; otherwise, the temperature will rise faster in the case of SRM termination. Considering potential economic damages of environmental side effects due to the use of SRM, the contribution of SRM would have to be much smaller. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Article Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9414-2 Authors Takanobu Kosugi, College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, 56-1 Toji-in Kitamachi, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603-8577 Japan Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a major component of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems and a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Because of the large spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystems, it is a challenge to estimate GPP accurately at global or regional scales. The 8-day MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product provides a near real time estimate of global GPP. However, previous studies indicated that MODIS GPP has large uncertainties, partly caused by biases in parameterization and forcing data. In this study, MODIS GPP was validated using GPP derived from the eddy covariance flux measurements at five typical forest sites in East Asia. The validation indicated that MODIS GPP was seriously underestimated in these forest ecosystems of East Asia, especially at northern sites. With observed meteorological data, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy (fPAR) calculated using smoothed MODIS leaf area index, and optimized maximum light use efficiency ( ε max ) to force the MOD17 algorithm, the agreement between predicted GPP and tower-based GPP was significantly improved. The errors of MODIS GPP in these forest ecosystems of East Asia were mainly caused by uncertainties in ε max , followed by those in fPAR and meteorological data. The separation of canopy into sunlit and shaded leaves, for which GPP is individually calculated, can improve GPP simulation significantly. Content Type Journal Article Category Special Feature: Original Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10310-012-0369-7 Authors Mingzhu He, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Yanlian Zhou, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093 China Weimin Ju, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Jingming Chen, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Li Zhang, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Shaoqiang Wang, Qianyanzhou Ecological Experimental Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Nobuko Saigusa, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan Ryuichi Hirata, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan Shohei Murayama, Research Institute for Environmental Management Technology, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), AIST Tsukuba West, 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8569 Japan Yibo Liu, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Journal Journal of Forest Research Online ISSN 1610-7403 Print ISSN 1341-6979

Description:    This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9407-1 Authors Louis Lebel, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200 Thailand Journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Online ISSN 1573-1596 Print ISSN 1381-2386

Description:    Land use change and human population growth are accelerating the fragmentation and insularization of wildlife habitats worldwide. The conservation and management of wildlife in the resultant ‘island’ ecosystems in the context of global warming is challenging due to the isolation and reduced size of the ecosystems and hence the scale over which ecosystem processes can operate. We analyzed trends in numbers of nine large herbivores in Kenya’s Lake Nakuru National Park to understand how rainfall and temperature variability, surrounding land use changes, and boundary fencing affected wildlife population dynamics inside the park during 1970–2011. Buffalo, zebra and Thomson’s gazelle numbers increased persistently. Grant’s gazelle and impala increased initially then gradually declined. Waterbuck and warthog numbers progressively declined to levels that potentially threatened their local population persistence. The total biomass of ungulates tripled from 1970 to 2011, with buffalo replacing waterbuck as the predominant species in biomass. Increased competition from buffalo and zebra, heightened predation and illicit human harvests probably all contributed to the declines by waterbuck and warthog. Density-dependent limitation of population growth within the park confines was evident for buffalo, impala, eland, giraffe, Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles. Fluctuations in the lake level related to varying rainfall affected changes in animal abundance through expansion of the lake area and flooding of grasslands bordering the lake. Unusually, the most stressful conditions were associated with high water levels following high rainfall. There was also evidence of carry-over effects from prior habitat conditions affecting all species. The relatively stable populations of all species except warthog and waterbuck demonstrate the remarkable capacity of this small, insularized park to retain viable populations of most of the large herbivores, without much management intervention. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10531-012-0239-9 Authors Joseph O. Ogutu, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100 Kenya Norman Owen-Smith, Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits, 2050 South Africa Hans-Peter Piepho, Bioinformatics Unit, Institute for Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany Bernard Kuloba, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Joseph Edebe, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Journal Biodiversity and Conservation Online ISSN 1572-9710 Print ISSN 0960-3115

Description:    A method for obtaining a relative deer population density index with low cost and effort is urgently needed in wildlife protection areas that need their own deer management guidelines. We recorded the number of deer sighted during our daily trips on forest roads by car in Ashiu Forest at Kyoto University, Japan, beginning in 2006. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to estimate among-year trends in the number of deer sighted. We applied models for the total number of deer (TND), number of adults (NA), and number of fawns (NF) sighted, which included both current-year and 1-year-old fawns. Full models included the terms of year (2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010), weather (fine, cloudy, and rain/snow), and nonlinear effects of season (date) and time (time). The optimal GAMMs for TND, NA, and NF did not include the effect of weather but included those of time, date, and year. The detected among-year trends in deer population may be influenced by differences in snow environments among the years. The modeling of road count data using GAMM quantitatively determined among-year variation in the number of deer sighted. This trend was similar to that of the population density estimated using a block count survey conducted in Ashiu Forest. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Article Pages 1-7 DOI 10.1007/s10310-012-0379-5 Authors Inoue Mizuki, Laboratory of Forest Science, Faculty of Bioresource Sciences, Akita Prefectural University, Akita, 010-0195 Japan Shota Sakaguchi, Laboratory of Forest Biology, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Keitaro Fukushima, Field Science Education and Research Center, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Masaru Sakai, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Atsushi Takayanagi, Laboratory of Forest Biology, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Daisuke Fujiki, Institute of Natural and Environment Science, University of Hyogo, Tanba, Japan Michimasa Yamasaki, Laboratory of Forest Biology, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Journal Journal of Forest Research Online ISSN 1610-7403 Print ISSN 1341-6979