Description: The ability of management strategies to achieve the fishery management goals are impacted by environmental variation and, therefore, also by global climate change. Management strategies can be modified to use environmental data using the "dynamic B 0 " concept, and changing the set of years used to define biomass reference points. Two approaches have been developed to apply management strategy evaluation to evaluate the impact of environmental variation on the performance of management strategies. The "mechanistic approach" estimates the relationship between the environment and elements of the population dynamics of the fished species and makes predictions for population trends using the outputs from global climate models. In contrast, the "empirical approach" examines possible broad scenarios without explicitly identifying mechanisms. Many reviewed studies have found that modifying management strategies to include environmental factors does not improve the ability to achieve management goals much, if at all, and only if the manner in which these factors drive the system is well known. As such, until the skill of stock projection models improves, it seems more appropriate to consider the implications of plausible broad forecasts related to how biological parameters may change in the future as a way to assess the robustness of management strategies, rather than attempting specific predictions per se .

Description: The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad ( Tenualosa ilisha ), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck ( Harpadon nehereus ), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by 〈10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of 〈20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Description:    Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community’s ability to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as transportation, health, and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns, climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities, leaving low-income, minority, and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly, knowledge gaps, future research priorities, and policy implications are identified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7 Authors Seth B. Shonkoff, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Division of Society and Environment, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3144, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Rachel Morello-Frosch, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Manuel Pastor, Departments of Geography and American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California, 3620 S. Vermont Ave, KAP-462, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0255, USA James Sadd, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Occidental College, 1600 Campus Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90041, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400  AD . We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (〈100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (〉100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5 Authors Chonggang Xu, Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA George Z. Gertner, Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, W-523 Turner Hall, MC-047, 1102 South Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Robert M. Scheller, Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0259-6 Authors David Etkin, Disaster and Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 J. Medalye, Political Science, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada K. Higuchi, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description: Welcomme, R. L. 2011. An overview of global catch statistics for inland fish. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1751–1756. The reported global inland fish catch passed 10 million tonnes in 2008, after almost linear growth from the early 1950s. The rise coincides with an increasing number of reports of falling catches resulting from environmental degradation. It is thought that catches from inland waters were underreported in the past because of constraints on collecting the relevant data. National approaches to data collection are not generally comparable and their accuracy not usually assessed. National data processing and reporting should be audited, and training undertaken to harmonize these activities. The apparently bigger catches probably result from better reporting of actual catches rather than any increase in the amount of fish landed. Current data are sufficient only for a general overview of global inland catches of fish, rather than for the detailed analysis needed for management, policy formulation, and the valuation of inland fisheries. There is a need for improved approaches to data collection and for historical catches to be corrected to account for changes in methodologies and reporting procedures.

Description: United Nations General Assembly resolution 69/292 provides that in developing an internationally legally binding instrument on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, the process should “not undermine” relevant existing legal instruments and frameworks and relevant global, regional, and sectoral bodies. An analysis of the varied interpretations of this ambiguous expression and its surrounding language raises questions about the role envisaged for such existing architecture. This article considers the practice of regional fisheries management organizations as an illustration of the possibilities and potential for improved practices generated from within existing architecture. It reviews measures taken to protect biodiversity and innovative applications of international law that have improved the ability of RFMOs to take such environmental measures. It seeks to highlight the importance of avoiding too narrow an interpretation of the notion of “not undermining”, and of recognizing the potential in existing architecture when designing an improved regime for the protection of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction.

Description: On 24 February 2017, a workshop entitled “Law Beyond Boundaries: innovative mechanisms for the integrated management of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction” was held in Wollongong, Australia hosted by the Oceans and International Environmental Law Interest Group of the Australian and New Zealand Society of International Law, in association with the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security at the University of Wollongong. The aim of the workshop was to address the question, how can international law be used in innovative ways to effectively conserve and sustainably manage marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ)? In this introduction, we briefly summarize five of the papers developed for the workshop, highlighting the way in which they address three important themes: the promise and limits of existing institutional mechanisms governing activities in ABNJ; interactions between established principles and regimes for ABNJ; and the lessons that can be drawn from existing global and regional approaches to ABNJ. We hope that the ideas developed in this article theme set will contribute to the ongoing discussions at the United Nations General Assembly, as the international community works toward the development of an international legally binding instrument to govern activities in ABNJ.

Description:    Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a major component of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems and a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Because of the large spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystems, it is a challenge to estimate GPP accurately at global or regional scales. The 8-day MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product provides a near real time estimate of global GPP. However, previous studies indicated that MODIS GPP has large uncertainties, partly caused by biases in parameterization and forcing data. In this study, MODIS GPP was validated using GPP derived from the eddy covariance flux measurements at five typical forest sites in East Asia. The validation indicated that MODIS GPP was seriously underestimated in these forest ecosystems of East Asia, especially at northern sites. With observed meteorological data, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy (fPAR) calculated using smoothed MODIS leaf area index, and optimized maximum light use efficiency ( ε max ) to force the MOD17 algorithm, the agreement between predicted GPP and tower-based GPP was significantly improved. The errors of MODIS GPP in these forest ecosystems of East Asia were mainly caused by uncertainties in ε max , followed by those in fPAR and meteorological data. The separation of canopy into sunlit and shaded leaves, for which GPP is individually calculated, can improve GPP simulation significantly. Content Type Journal Article Category Special Feature: Original Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10310-012-0369-7 Authors Mingzhu He, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Yanlian Zhou, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093 China Weimin Ju, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Jingming Chen, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Li Zhang, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Shaoqiang Wang, Qianyanzhou Ecological Experimental Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Nobuko Saigusa, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan Ryuichi Hirata, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan Shohei Murayama, Research Institute for Environmental Management Technology, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), AIST Tsukuba West, 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8569 Japan Yibo Liu, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, 901 Mengminwei Building, 22 Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093 China Journal Journal of Forest Research Online ISSN 1610-7403 Print ISSN 1341-6979

Description: Arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ) are an important predator of juvenile walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogramus ) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf and have increased 3-fold in biomass from 1977 to 2014. Arrowtooth flounder avoid the summer "cold pool" (bottom water ≤2°C) and variability in cold pool size and location has affected their spatial overlap with juvenile walleye pollock. Developing a method to account for the relationship between climate change and pollock mortality can highlight ecosystem dynamics and contribute to better assessments for fisheries management. Consequently, spatially resolved predation mortality rates were estimated within an age-structured walleye pollock stock assessment population model (based on spatial information on diet and abundance from trawl surveys), along with the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on pollock recruitment. Projections of SST and cold pool area to 2050 were obtained (or statistically downscaled) from nine global climate models and used within an age-structure population model to project pollock abundance given estimated relationships between environmental variables and predator and prey spatial distributions, pollock recruitment, and maximum rate of arrowtooth flounder consumption. The climate projections show a wide range of variability but an overall trend of increasing SST and decreasing cold pool area. Projected pollock biomass decreased largely due to the negative effect of increased SST on pollock recruitment. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the decline in projected pollock biomass would be exacerbated if arrowtooth flounder increased their relative distribution in the EBS northwest middle shelf (an area of relatively high density of juvenile pollock) in warm years.