Description:    This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0567-9 Authors Lu Liu, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Yang Hong, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA James E. Hocker, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Mark A. Shafer, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Lynne M. Carter, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA Christopher N. Bednarczyk, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Bin Yong, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Pradeep Adhikari, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology Online ISSN 1434-4483 Print ISSN 0177-798X

Description: Global climate change is exerting profound effects on organisms and ecosystems. As resource managers and policymakers must contend with the ongoing and future effects of global climate change, they challenge scientists to predict where, when, and with what magnitude these effects are most likely to occur. By understanding the processes by which human-managed and natural ecosystems respond to a changing climate, and by quantifying levels of confidence in our ability to predict these effects, we may be able to prepare for some of these impacts, a form of adaptation to climate change. Here, we describe how knowledge of physiology can help to inform management decisions. Because physiological tolerance to environmental factors varies between species, there will likely be “winners” and “losers” in the face of climate change. We explore how a failure to consider the details of an organism’s physiology and ecology can hamper efforts to respond proactively to climate change and, conversely, how an understanding of how nonhuman organisms interact with their environment can help to provide a framework for anticipating and preparing for future changes in natural and managed ecosystems. We examine some of the physiological responses of marine organisms to climate change in three examples: thermal stress in marine invertebrates, ramifications of water temperature changes on fish bioenergetics and thus on fish reproduction and growth, and effects of changes in wave forces on damage to corals and kelp. Because factors such as temperature interact with other stressors like overexploitation and pollution to drive patterns of mortality, it may be possible to prevent some damage by reducing the impact of stressors not related to climate change. Methods such as ecological forecasting and the utilization of bioenergetic budgets can be used to help guide future adaptation to climate change by providing forecasts within a probabilistic framework. Author:  Brian Helmuth Lauren Yamane Katharine J. Mach Shilpi Chhotray Phil Levin Sarah Woodin Issue:  Climate change Download:  61_Helmuth Final.pdf