Beschreibung: The ability of management strategies to achieve the fishery management goals are impacted by environmental variation and, therefore, also by global climate change. Management strategies can be modified to use environmental data using the "dynamic B 0 " concept, and changing the set of years used to define biomass reference points. Two approaches have been developed to apply management strategy evaluation to evaluate the impact of environmental variation on the performance of management strategies. The "mechanistic approach" estimates the relationship between the environment and elements of the population dynamics of the fished species and makes predictions for population trends using the outputs from global climate models. In contrast, the "empirical approach" examines possible broad scenarios without explicitly identifying mechanisms. Many reviewed studies have found that modifying management strategies to include environmental factors does not improve the ability to achieve management goals much, if at all, and only if the manner in which these factors drive the system is well known. As such, until the skill of stock projection models improves, it seems more appropriate to consider the implications of plausible broad forecasts related to how biological parameters may change in the future as a way to assess the robustness of management strategies, rather than attempting specific predictions per se .

Beschreibung: The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad ( Tenualosa ilisha ), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck ( Harpadon nehereus ), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by 〈10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of 〈20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Beschreibung:    This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0567-9 Authors Lu Liu, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Yang Hong, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA James E. Hocker, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Mark A. Shafer, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climate Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Lynne M. Carter, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA Christopher N. Bednarczyk, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Bin Yong, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Pradeep Adhikari, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., National Weather Center ARRC 4610 Suite, Norman, OK 73072, USA Journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology Online ISSN 1434-4483 Print ISSN 0177-798X

Beschreibung: Welcomme, R. L. 2011. An overview of global catch statistics for inland fish. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1751–1756. The reported global inland fish catch passed 10 million tonnes in 2008, after almost linear growth from the early 1950s. The rise coincides with an increasing number of reports of falling catches resulting from environmental degradation. It is thought that catches from inland waters were underreported in the past because of constraints on collecting the relevant data. National approaches to data collection are not generally comparable and their accuracy not usually assessed. National data processing and reporting should be audited, and training undertaken to harmonize these activities. The apparently bigger catches probably result from better reporting of actual catches rather than any increase in the amount of fish landed. Current data are sufficient only for a general overview of global inland catches of fish, rather than for the detailed analysis needed for management, policy formulation, and the valuation of inland fisheries. There is a need for improved approaches to data collection and for historical catches to be corrected to account for changes in methodologies and reporting procedures.

Beschreibung: United Nations General Assembly resolution 69/292 provides that in developing an internationally legally binding instrument on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, the process should “not undermine” relevant existing legal instruments and frameworks and relevant global, regional, and sectoral bodies. An analysis of the varied interpretations of this ambiguous expression and its surrounding language raises questions about the role envisaged for such existing architecture. This article considers the practice of regional fisheries management organizations as an illustration of the possibilities and potential for improved practices generated from within existing architecture. It reviews measures taken to protect biodiversity and innovative applications of international law that have improved the ability of RFMOs to take such environmental measures. It seeks to highlight the importance of avoiding too narrow an interpretation of the notion of “not undermining”, and of recognizing the potential in existing architecture when designing an improved regime for the protection of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction.

Beschreibung: On 24 February 2017, a workshop entitled “Law Beyond Boundaries: innovative mechanisms for the integrated management of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction” was held in Wollongong, Australia hosted by the Oceans and International Environmental Law Interest Group of the Australian and New Zealand Society of International Law, in association with the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security at the University of Wollongong. The aim of the workshop was to address the question, how can international law be used in innovative ways to effectively conserve and sustainably manage marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ)? In this introduction, we briefly summarize five of the papers developed for the workshop, highlighting the way in which they address three important themes: the promise and limits of existing institutional mechanisms governing activities in ABNJ; interactions between established principles and regimes for ABNJ; and the lessons that can be drawn from existing global and regional approaches to ABNJ. We hope that the ideas developed in this article theme set will contribute to the ongoing discussions at the United Nations General Assembly, as the international community works toward the development of an international legally binding instrument to govern activities in ABNJ.

Beschreibung: .   This contribution reflects on the comments of Peter Allen [1], Bikas K. Chakrabarti [2], Péter Érdi [3], Juval Portugali [4], Sorin Solomon [5], and Stefan Thurner [6] on three White Papers (WP) of the EU Support Action Visioneer (www.visioneer.ethz.ch). These White Papers are entitled “From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crises” (WP 1) [7], “From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design” (WP 2) [8], and “How to Create an Innovation Accelerator” (WP 3) [9]. In our reflections, the need and feasibility of a “Knowledge Accelerator” is further substantiated by fundamental considerations and recent events around the globe. newpara The Visioneer White Papers propose research to be carried out that will improve our understanding of complex techno-socio-economic systems and their interaction with the environment. Thereby, they aim to stimulate multi-disciplinary collaborations between ICT, the social sciences, and complexity science. Moreover, they suggest combining the potential of massive real-time data, theoretical models, large-scale computer simulations and participatory online platforms. By doing so, it would become possible to explore various futures and to expand the limits of human imagination when it comes to the assessment of the often counter-intuitive behavior of these complex techno-socio-economic-environmental systems. In this contribution, we also highlight the importance of a pluralistic modeling approach and, in particular, the need for a fruitful interaction between quantitative and qualitative research approaches. newpara In an appendix we briefly summarize the concept of the FuturICT flagship project, which will build on and go beyond the proposals made by the Visioneer White Papers. EU flagships are ambitious multi-disciplinary high-risk projects with a duration of at least 10 years amounting to an envisaged overall budget of 1 billion EUR [10]. The goal of the FuturICT flagship initiative is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Content Type Journal Article Pages 165-186 DOI 10.1140/epjst/e2011-01410-7 Authors D. Helbing, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Balietti, ETH Zurich, CLU, Clausiusstr. 50, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland S. Bishop, Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT UK P. Lukowicz, University of Passau, Innstrasse 43, 94032 Passau, Germany Journal The European Physical Journal - Special Topics Online ISSN 1951-6401 Print ISSN 1951-6355 Journal Volume Volume 195 Journal Issue Volume 195, Number 1

Beschreibung:    Severe water erosion is notorious for its harmful effects on land-water resources as well as local societies. The scale effects of water erosion, however, greatly exacerbate the difficulties of accurate erosion evaluation and hazard control in the real world. Analyzing the related scale issues is thus urgent for a better understanding of erosion variations as well as reducing such erosion. In this review article, water erosion dynamics across three spatial scales including plot, watershed, and regional scales were selected and discussed. For the study purposes and objectives, the advantages and disadvantages of these scales all demonstrate clear spatial-scale dependence. Plot scale studies are primarily focused on abundant data collection and mechanism discrimination of erosion generation, while watershed scale studies provide valuable information for watershed management and hazard control as well as the development of quantitatively distributed models. Regional studies concentrate more on large-scale erosion assessment, and serve policymakers and stakeholders in achieving the basis for regulatory policy for comprehensive land uses. The results of this study show that the driving forces and mechanisms of water erosion variations among the scales are quite different. As a result, several major aspects contributing to variations in water erosion across the scales are stressed: differences in the methodologies across various scales, different sink-source roles on water erosion processes, and diverse climatic zones and morphological regions. This variability becomes more complex in the context of accelerated global change. The changing climatic factors and earth surface features are considered the fourth key reason responsible for the increased variability of water erosion across spatial scales. Content Type Journal Article Pages 127-143 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0524-2 Authors Wei Wei, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Liding Chen, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Lei Yang, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Bojie Fu, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Ranhao Sun, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063 Journal Volume Volume 22 Journal Issue Volume 22, Number 2

Beschreibung:    In this paper, we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change. The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system (CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion. A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China, where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS. Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators. The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas, while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones. Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances, showing highest sensitivity. Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences. After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons, climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats. The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map. Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope. This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4 Authors Xiaoqian Liu, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Yanglin Wang, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Jian Peng, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China K. Braimoh Ademola, Global Land Project, Sapporo Nodal Office, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0809 Japan He Yin, Geomatics Laboratory, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, 10099 Germany Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063

Beschreibung:    Understanding the characteristics of historical droughts will benefit water resource managers because it will reveal the possible impacts that future changes in climate may have on drought, and subsequently, the availability of water resources. The goal of this study was to reconstruct historical drought occurrences and assess future drought risk for the drought-prone Blue River Basin in Oklahoma, under a likely changing climate using three types of drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). No similar research has been conducted in this region previously. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from the observational period 1950–1999 and over the projection period 2010–2099 from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were used to compute the duration, severity, and extent of meteorological droughts. Additionally, soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff data from the well-calibrated Thornthwaite Monthly Water Balance Model were used to examine drought from a hydrological perspective. The results show that the three indices captured the historical droughts for the past 50 years and suggest that more severe droughts of wider extent are very likely to occur over the next 90 years in the Blue River Basin, especially in the later part of the 21st century. In fact, all three indices display lower minimum values than those ever recorded in the past 50 years. This study also found that SRI and SPI (PDSI) had a correlation coefficient of 0.81 (0.78) with a 2-month (no appreciable) lag time over the 1950–2099 time period across the basin. There was relatively lower correlation between SPI and PDSI over the same period. Although this study recommends that PDSI and SRI are the most suitable indices for assessing future drought risks under an increasingly warmer climate, more drought indices from ecological and socioeconomic perspectives should be investigated and compared to provide a complete picture of drought and its potential impacts on the dynamically coupled nature-human system. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0044-y Authors Lu Liu, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 334, Norman, OK 73019-1024, USA Yang Hong, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 334, Norman, OK 73019-1024, USA Christopher N. Bednarczyk, Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program, National Weather Center, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA Bin Yong, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Mark A. Shafer, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA Rachel Riley, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA James E. Hocker, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA Journal Water Resources Management Online ISSN 1573-1650 Print ISSN 0920-4741