Description:    Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community’s ability to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as transportation, health, and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns, climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities, leaving low-income, minority, and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly, knowledge gaps, future research priorities, and policy implications are identified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7 Authors Seth B. Shonkoff, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Division of Society and Environment, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3144, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Rachel Morello-Frosch, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Manuel Pastor, Departments of Geography and American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California, 3620 S. Vermont Ave, KAP-462, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0255, USA James Sadd, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Occidental College, 1600 Campus Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90041, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0152-6 Authors Robert I. McDonald, Worldwide Office, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 N. Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22203, USA Ian Douglas, School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL UK Carmen Revenga, Worldwide Office, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 N. Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22203, USA Rebecca Hale, School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, 1711 South Rural Road, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA Nancy Grimm, Faculty of Ecology, Evolution, & Environmental Science, Arizona State University, 1711 South Rural Road, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA Jenny Grönwall, 110 Marlyn Lodge, Portsoken St, London, E1 8RB UK Balazs Fekete, CUNY Research Foundation, The City College of New York, 160 Convent Avenue, New York, NY 10031, USA Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment Online ISSN 1654-7209 Print ISSN 0044-7447

Description:    The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400  AD . We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (〈100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (〉100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5 Authors Chonggang Xu, Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA George Z. Gertner, Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, W-523 Turner Hall, MC-047, 1102 South Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Robert M. Scheller, Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0259-6 Authors David Etkin, Disaster and Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 J. Medalye, Political Science, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada K. Higuchi, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The emerging interest in the biological and conservation significance of locally rare species prompts a number of questions about their correspondence with other categories of biodiversity, especially global rarity. Here we present an analysis of the correspondence between the distributions of globally and locally rare plants. Using biological hotspots of rarity as our framework, we evaluate the extent to which conservation of globally rare plants will act as a surrogate for conservation of locally rare taxa. Subsequently, we aim to identify gaps between rarity hotspots and protected land to guide conservation planning. We compiled distribution data for globally and locally rare plants from botanically diverse Napa County, California into a geographic information system. We then generated richness maps highlighting hotspots of global and local rarity. Following this, we overlaid the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected lands to identify conservation gaps. Based on occupancy of 1 km 2 grid cells, we found that over half of Napa County is occupied by at least one globally or locally rare plant. Hotspots of global and local rarity occurred in a substantially smaller portion of the county. Of these hotspots, less than 5% were classified as multi-scale hotspots, i.e. they were hotspots of global and local rarity. Although, several hotspots corresponded with the 483 km 2 of protected lands in Napa County, some of the richest areas did not. Thus, our results show that there are important conservation gaps in Napa County. Furthermore, if only hotspots of global rarity are preserved, only a subset of locally rare plants will be protected. Therefore, conservation of global, local, and multi-scale hotspots needs serious consideration if the goals are to protect a larger variety of biological attributes, prevent extinction, and limit extirpation in Napa County. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s10531-011-0137-6 Authors Benjamin J. Crain, Department of Biological Sciences, Humboldt State University, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521, USA Jeffrey W. White, Department of Biological Sciences, Humboldt State University, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521, USA Steven J. Steinberg, Department of Environmental Science and Management, Humboldt State University, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521, USA Journal Biodiversity and Conservation Online ISSN 1572-9710 Print ISSN 0960-3115

Description:    Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR), which removes CO 2 from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research. Content Type Journal Article Category Review Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5 Authors Lynn M. Russell, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr. Mail Code 0221, La Jolla, CA 92093-0221, USA Philip J. Rasch, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, P. O. Box 999, MSIN K9-34, Richland, WA 99352, USA Georgina M. Mace, Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berks SL5 7PY, UK Robert B. Jackson, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA John Shepherd, Earth System Science, School of Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK Peter Liss, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ UK Margaret Leinen, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, 5600 US Rt 1 North, Fort Pierce, FL 34946, USA David Schimel, NEON Inc, 1685 38th Street, Boulder, CO 80305, USA Naomi E. Vaughan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Anthony C. Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA Philip W. Boyd, NIWA Centre of Chemical & Physical Oceanography, Department of Chemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Richard J. Norby, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Bethel Valley Road, Bldg. 2040, MS-6301, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6301, USA Ken Caldeira, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Joonas Merikanto, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O Box 64, 00014 Helsinki, Finland Paulo Artaxo, Institute of Physics, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, Travessa R, 187, São Paulo, SP CEP 05508-090, Brazil Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA M. Granger Morgan, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment Online ISSN 1654-7209 Print ISSN 0044-7447

Description:    Severe water erosion is notorious for its harmful effects on land-water resources as well as local societies. The scale effects of water erosion, however, greatly exacerbate the difficulties of accurate erosion evaluation and hazard control in the real world. Analyzing the related scale issues is thus urgent for a better understanding of erosion variations as well as reducing such erosion. In this review article, water erosion dynamics across three spatial scales including plot, watershed, and regional scales were selected and discussed. For the study purposes and objectives, the advantages and disadvantages of these scales all demonstrate clear spatial-scale dependence. Plot scale studies are primarily focused on abundant data collection and mechanism discrimination of erosion generation, while watershed scale studies provide valuable information for watershed management and hazard control as well as the development of quantitatively distributed models. Regional studies concentrate more on large-scale erosion assessment, and serve policymakers and stakeholders in achieving the basis for regulatory policy for comprehensive land uses. The results of this study show that the driving forces and mechanisms of water erosion variations among the scales are quite different. As a result, several major aspects contributing to variations in water erosion across the scales are stressed: differences in the methodologies across various scales, different sink-source roles on water erosion processes, and diverse climatic zones and morphological regions. This variability becomes more complex in the context of accelerated global change. The changing climatic factors and earth surface features are considered the fourth key reason responsible for the increased variability of water erosion across spatial scales. Content Type Journal Article Pages 127-143 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0524-2 Authors Wei Wei, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Liding Chen, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Lei Yang, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Bojie Fu, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Ranhao Sun, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063 Journal Volume Volume 22 Journal Issue Volume 22, Number 2

Description:    In this paper, we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change. The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system (CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion. A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China, where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS. Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators. The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas, while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones. Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances, showing highest sensitivity. Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences. After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons, climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats. The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map. Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope. This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4 Authors Xiaoqian Liu, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Yanglin Wang, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China Jian Peng, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 China K. Braimoh Ademola, Global Land Project, Sapporo Nodal Office, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0809 Japan He Yin, Geomatics Laboratory, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, 10099 Germany Journal Chinese Geographical Science Online ISSN 1993-064X Print ISSN 1002-0063

Description:    Land use change and human population growth are accelerating the fragmentation and insularization of wildlife habitats worldwide. The conservation and management of wildlife in the resultant ‘island’ ecosystems in the context of global warming is challenging due to the isolation and reduced size of the ecosystems and hence the scale over which ecosystem processes can operate. We analyzed trends in numbers of nine large herbivores in Kenya’s Lake Nakuru National Park to understand how rainfall and temperature variability, surrounding land use changes, and boundary fencing affected wildlife population dynamics inside the park during 1970–2011. Buffalo, zebra and Thomson’s gazelle numbers increased persistently. Grant’s gazelle and impala increased initially then gradually declined. Waterbuck and warthog numbers progressively declined to levels that potentially threatened their local population persistence. The total biomass of ungulates tripled from 1970 to 2011, with buffalo replacing waterbuck as the predominant species in biomass. Increased competition from buffalo and zebra, heightened predation and illicit human harvests probably all contributed to the declines by waterbuck and warthog. Density-dependent limitation of population growth within the park confines was evident for buffalo, impala, eland, giraffe, Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles. Fluctuations in the lake level related to varying rainfall affected changes in animal abundance through expansion of the lake area and flooding of grasslands bordering the lake. Unusually, the most stressful conditions were associated with high water levels following high rainfall. There was also evidence of carry-over effects from prior habitat conditions affecting all species. The relatively stable populations of all species except warthog and waterbuck demonstrate the remarkable capacity of this small, insularized park to retain viable populations of most of the large herbivores, without much management intervention. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10531-012-0239-9 Authors Joseph O. Ogutu, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100 Kenya Norman Owen-Smith, Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits, 2050 South Africa Hans-Peter Piepho, Bioinformatics Unit, Institute for Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany Bernard Kuloba, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Joseph Edebe, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Journal Biodiversity and Conservation Online ISSN 1572-9710 Print ISSN 0960-3115

Description:    Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers’ awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 645-655 DOI 10.1007/s13280-012-0327-9 Authors Joanna Piwowarczyk, Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712 Sopot, Poland Anders Hansson, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden Mattias Hjerpe, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden Boris Chubarenko, Atlantic Branch of the Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, Russia Konstantin Karmanov, Atlantic Branch of the Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, Russia Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment Online ISSN 1654-7209 Print ISSN 0044-7447 Journal Volume Volume 41 Journal Issue Volume 41, Number 6