Description:    Land use change and human population growth are accelerating the fragmentation and insularization of wildlife habitats worldwide. The conservation and management of wildlife in the resultant ‘island’ ecosystems in the context of global warming is challenging due to the isolation and reduced size of the ecosystems and hence the scale over which ecosystem processes can operate. We analyzed trends in numbers of nine large herbivores in Kenya’s Lake Nakuru National Park to understand how rainfall and temperature variability, surrounding land use changes, and boundary fencing affected wildlife population dynamics inside the park during 1970–2011. Buffalo, zebra and Thomson’s gazelle numbers increased persistently. Grant’s gazelle and impala increased initially then gradually declined. Waterbuck and warthog numbers progressively declined to levels that potentially threatened their local population persistence. The total biomass of ungulates tripled from 1970 to 2011, with buffalo replacing waterbuck as the predominant species in biomass. Increased competition from buffalo and zebra, heightened predation and illicit human harvests probably all contributed to the declines by waterbuck and warthog. Density-dependent limitation of population growth within the park confines was evident for buffalo, impala, eland, giraffe, Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles. Fluctuations in the lake level related to varying rainfall affected changes in animal abundance through expansion of the lake area and flooding of grasslands bordering the lake. Unusually, the most stressful conditions were associated with high water levels following high rainfall. There was also evidence of carry-over effects from prior habitat conditions affecting all species. The relatively stable populations of all species except warthog and waterbuck demonstrate the remarkable capacity of this small, insularized park to retain viable populations of most of the large herbivores, without much management intervention. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10531-012-0239-9 Authors Joseph O. Ogutu, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100 Kenya Norman Owen-Smith, Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits, 2050 South Africa Hans-Peter Piepho, Bioinformatics Unit, Institute for Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany Bernard Kuloba, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Joseph Edebe, Kenya Wildlife Service, Lake Nakuru National Park, P.O. Box 539, Nakuru, Kenya Journal Biodiversity and Conservation Online ISSN 1572-9710 Print ISSN 0960-3115

Description:    Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers’ awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 645-655 DOI 10.1007/s13280-012-0327-9 Authors Joanna Piwowarczyk, Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712 Sopot, Poland Anders Hansson, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden Mattias Hjerpe, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden Boris Chubarenko, Atlantic Branch of the Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, Russia Konstantin Karmanov, Atlantic Branch of the Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, Russia Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment Online ISSN 1654-7209 Print ISSN 0044-7447 Journal Volume Volume 41 Journal Issue Volume 41, Number 6

Description:    Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0 Authors Mort Webster, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Andrei P. Sokolov, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA John M. Reilly, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chris E. Forest, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Sergey Paltsev, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Adam Schlosser, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chien Wang, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA David Kicklighter, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Marcus Sarofim, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Ronald G. Prinn, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Henry D. Jacoby, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Under increasing water scarcity, collective groundwater management is a global concern. This article presents an interdisciplinary analysis of this challenge drawing on a survey including 50 large and small farms and gardens in a village in an agricultural land reclamation area on the edge of the Western Desert of Egypt. Findings revealed that smallholders rely on a practice of shallow groundwater use, through which drainage water from adjacent irrigation areas is effectively recycled within the surface aquifer. Expanding agroindustrial activities in the surrounding area are socio-economically important, but by mining non-renewable water in the surrounding area, they set in motion a degradation process with social and ecological consequences for all users in the multi-layered aquifer system. Based on the findings of our investigation, we identify opportunities for local authorities to more systematically connect available environmental information sources and common pool resource management precedents, to counterbalance the degradation threat. Content Type Journal Article Category Report Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s13280-012-0255-8 Authors Caroline King, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK Boshra Salem, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Alexandria, Alexandria, Egypt Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment Online ISSN 1654-7209 Print ISSN 0044-7447

Description: Agriculture significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and there is a need to develop effective mitigation strategies. The efficacy of methods to reduce GHG fluxes from agricultural soils can be affected by a range of interacting management and environmental factors. Uniquely, we used the Taguchi experimental design methodology to rank the relative importance of six factors known to affect the emission of GHG from soil: nitrate (NO 3 − ) addition, carbon quality (labile and non-labile C), soil temperature, water-filled pore space (WFPS) and extent of soil compaction. Grassland soil was incubated in jars where selected factors, considered at two or three amounts within the experimental range, were combined in an orthogonal array to determine the importance and interactions between factors with a L 16 design, comprising 16 experimental units. Within this L 16 design, 216 combinations of the full factorial experimental design were represented. Headspace nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations were measured and used to calculate fluxes. Results found for the relative influence of factors (WFPS and NO 3 − addition were the main factors affecting N 2 O fluxes, whilst glucose, NO 3 − and soil temperature were the main factors affecting CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) were consistent with those already well documented. Interactions between factors were also studied and results showed that factors with little individual influence became more influential in combination. The proposed methodology offers new possibilities for GHG researchers to study interactions between influential factors and address the optimized sets of conditions to reduce GHG emissions in agro-ecosystems, while reducing the number of experimental units required compared with conventional experimental procedures that adjust one variable at a time.

Description:    Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm −2 ) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO 2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO 2 and N 2 O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5 Authors Toshihiko Masui, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Kenichi Matsumoto, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Tsuguki Kinoshita, Ibaraki University, 3-21-1 Chuo, Ami, Ibaraki 300-0393, Japan Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Sawako Ishiwatari, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Etsushi Kato, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan P. R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015 India Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description: Wigand, L. A., Klinger, T., and Logsdon, M. G. 2013. Patterns in groundfish abundance along the Eastern Bering Sea outer continental margin. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1181–1197. Place-based management approaches require understanding the spatial arrangement and interaction of elements. To address this need, we explored the utility of spatial-pattern analysis to understand the distribution of groundfish in the Eastern Bering Sea outer continental margin. We divided this region into discrete geomorphological units to explore spatial pattern on a range of scales. We used groundfish catch per unit effort (cpue) trawl survey data collected in four years to quantify spatial autocorrelation. Global statistics indicated that groundfish cpue was dominated by clusters of low values in all years. Local statistics showed that clusters of low values in groundfish cpue were confined to the southern portion of the study area, while clusters of high values varied across the study area. Outliers were most commonly found in close proximity to the shelf–slope break. Our results reveal the existence of spatial dependency in groundfish abundance and demonstrate that spatial analysis can be used to better understand spatial arrangements of these and other living marine resources, and to quantify and validate the local ecological knowledge of resource users. Our results indicate the feasibility of using spatially explicit tools to improve integration and visualization of marine environmental data for purposes of management and conservation.

Description:    This paper investigates changes in shoreline evolution caused by changes in wave climate. In particular, a number of nearshore wave climate scenarios corresponding to a ‘present’ (1961–1990) and a future time-slice (2071–2100) are used to drive a beach evolution model to determine monthly and seasonal statistics. To limit the number of variables, an idealised shoreline segment is adopted. The nearshore wave climate scenarios are generated from wind climate scenarios through point wave hindcast and inshore transformation. The original wind forcing comes from regional climate change model experiments of different resolutions and/or driving global climate models, representing different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. It corresponds to a location offshore the south central coast of England. Hypothesis tests are applied to map the degree of evidence of future change in wave and shoreline statistics relative to the present. Differential statistics resulting from different global climate models and future emission scenarios are also investigated. Further, simple, fast, and straightforward methods that are capable of accommodating a great number of climate change scenarios with limited data reduction requirements are proposed to tackle the problem under consideration. The results of this study show that there are statistically significant changes in nearshore wave climate conditions and beach alignment between current and future climate scenarios. Changes are most notable during late summer for the medium-high future emission scenario and late winter for the medium-low. Despite frequent disagreement between global climate change models on the statistical significance of a change, all experiments agreed in future seasonal trends. Finally, a point of importance for coastal management, material shoreline changes are generally linked to significant changes in future wave direction rather than wave height. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-33 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-0011-7 Authors Anna Zacharioudaki, CIMA - Centre for Marine and Environmental Research, University of the Algarve, Hidrotec-ISE, Campus da Penha, Faro, 8005-139 Portugal Dominic E. Reeve, School of Marine Science and Engineering, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009