Description: To limit global warming to 1.5°C, vast amounts of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmos‐ phere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so‐called nature‐based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR “supply curve” would however imply that all carbon removals are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co‐benefits of nature‐based CDR approaches militate against this. We discuss this aspect of nature‐based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosys‐ tems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO 2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contri‐ bution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, their property rights are often un‐ clear, i.e. not comprehensively defined or not enforced. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other im‐ portant, often local, ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Ac‐ cordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit‐sharing rules are crucial factors to be considered when setting up inter‐ national payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature‐ or ecosystem‐based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very prob‐ ably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preser‐ vation. Unhalted degradation, in turn, will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for re‐ moving atmospheric CO2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR.

Description: SIPRI’s Environment of Peace initiative focuses on managing the risks that are created by two interwoven crises: the darkening security horizon and the immense pressures being placed on the natural world and the systems that support life on earth. The Environment of Peace research report is an in-depth look at the evidence base and analysis of the policy report Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk, including many real-world case studies. The report is the result of two years’ work by more than 30 researchers, led and guided by some of the leading voices in the fields of environment and security. Accessibly designed, the new research report is available to download in four parts: Elements of a Planetary Emergency (part 1); Security Risks of Environmental Crises (part 2); Navigating a Just and Peaceful Transition (part 3); and Enabling an Environment of Peace (part 4). This part—Security Risks of Environmental Crises (part 2)—shows how combinations of environmental and security phenomena are generating complex risks. Through a theoretical framework informed by the literature, Cedric de Coning, Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), and his team explore different pathways from environmental stress to conflict and how the darkening security horizon and environmental crises are interacting to generate different types of risk: compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential. The analysis is supported by numerous case studies, spanning a variety of social-ecological systems and different types of risks. Part 2 also discusses options for responding to these complex risks.

Description: The publication provides a summary on the state of the climate indicators in 2021 including global temperatures trends and its distribution around the globe; most recent finding on Green House Gases concentration, Ocean indicators; Cryosphere with a particular emphasis on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, greenland ice sheet and glaciers and snow cover; Stratospheric Ozone; analysis of major drivers of inter-annual climate variability during the year including the El Niño Souther Oscillation and other Ocean and Atmshperic indices; global precipitation distribution over land; extreme events including those related to tropical cyclones and wind storms; flooding, drought and extreme heat and cold events. The publication also provides most recent finding on climate related risks and impacts including on food security, humanitarian and population displacement aspects and impact on ecosystems.

Description: This deliverable reports on the achievements of the EuroSea project in developing targeted indicators co-designed with demonstrators (WPs 5–7) and forecasts (WP4). For this, the indicators implemented are expressed in term of Essential Ocean/Climate Variables (EOVs/ECVs) together with their requirements. The co-development undertaken address ocean indicators for all range of scales: from the large, basin scale to the regional and local scales. Such approach as well as the proposed solution to focus, at regional/local scales, on EEZs, represent one of the innovative results of EuroSea that will help to rationalize risks assessments and guide environmental management approaches in European Seas.

Description: The agriculture sector in Asia and the Pacific region contributes massively to climate change, as the region has the largest share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. The region is the largest producer of rice, a major source of methane emissions. Further, to achieve food security for the increasing population, there has been a massive increase in the use of synthetic fertilizer and energy in agricultural production in the region over the last few decades. This has led to an enormous rise in nitrous oxide (N2O; mostly from fertilizer-N use) and carbon dioxide (mostly from energy use for irrigation) emissions from agriculture. Besides this, a substantial increase in livestock production for meat and dairy products has increased methane emissions, along with other environmental problems. In this context, this study conducts a systematic review of strategies that can reduce emissions from the agriculture sector using a multidimensional approach, looking at supply-side, demand-side, and cross-cutting measures. The review found that though there are huge potentials to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture, significant challenges exist in monitoring and verification of GHG emissions from supply-side measures, shifting to sustainable consumption behavior with regard to food consumption and use, and the design and implementation of regulatory and incentive mechanisms. On the supply side, policies should focus on the upscaling of climate-smart agriculture primarily through expanding knowledge and improving input use efficiency in agriculture, while on the demand side, there is a need to launch a drive to reduce food loss and waste and also to move towards sustainable consumption. Therefore, appropriate integration of policies at multiple levels, as well as application of multiple measures simultaneously, can increase mitigation potential as desired by the Paris Agreement and also help to achieve several of the United Nations’ SDGs.

Description: Fertilizers and pesticides are interdependent inputs to a destructive food production model that is contributing to catastrophic biodiversity collapse, toxic pollution, and the violation of human rights. But there is an often-overlooked dimension of the threat posed by these agrochemicals: their fossil fuel origins. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides are fossil fuels in another form, making them an underrecognized but significant driver of the climate crisis. Further, the close ties between agrochemicals and fossil fuels mean that industrial food production is vulnerable to the volatility inherent in oil and gas markets, as starkly illustrated by the 2022 market shocks in food, fuel, and fertilizer prices. For over a decade, the fossil fuel industry has been betting on petrochemicals (namely, plastics) to maintain profits as the world moves away from oil and gas as fuels. Fossils, Fertilizers, and False Solutions exposes how fossil fuel and fossil fertilizer companies are aligning to pursue a new escape hatch: one that purports to solve the climate challenge of hydrocarbon combustion by using the hydrogen and managing the carbon. The fertilizer industry, and the processes it already uses to make its products, hold the keys to this new model. Largely unnoticed by media and civil society watchdogs, oil, gas, and agrochemical companies are partnering on a rapidly growing wave of new projects that would use carbon capture and storage (CCS) to produce fossil gas-based “blue” ammonia (and its “blue” hydrogen precursor), not only as a critical fertilizer input, but as a combustible fuel for transport and energy. Through such approaches, the fertilizer and fossil fuel companies seek to greenwash their polluting business, cash in on generous new subsidies for CCS, and access new markets as “clean energy companies.” This report begins by summarizing synthetic fertilizer market trends, describing how chemical fertilizer is tied to fossil fuels through feedstocks, examining the 2022 food and fertilizer market disruptions, and calling attention to the ecological and climate impacts of synthetic fertilizers. It then explores how the fertilizer industry and fossil fuel producers are capitalizing on the climate crisis to open new avenues for profit and production by laundering their emissions through the chemicals and agriculture sector. The corporate-controlled, input-reliant model of industrial agriculture is in need of a profound transformation to resilient, regenerative models that enhance food and energy sovereignty so that the ecosystems and communities that depend on them can thrive. The need for such a fundamental transformation is as urgent and as compelling as the global energy transition, the transition away from plastic pollution, and the transition to a world free of toxic chemicals. Those transitions can only be achieved if the common roadblock is removed: a fossil-fueled system that has captured politics and is burning, polluting, and poisoning people and the planet. At a time of surging fossil fuel, fertilizer, and food prices, and with the escalating climate crisis as a backdrop, the case for transitioning away from fossil fertilizer and from fossil fuels altogether has never been clearer.