Description: The magnitudes and timescales of global mean surface temperature feedbacks in climate models Earth System Dynamics, 2, 213-221, 2011 Author(s): A. Jarvis Because of the fundamental role feedbacks play in determining the response of surface temperature to perturbations in radiative forcing, it is important we understand the dynamic characteristics of these feedbacks. Rather than attribute the aggregate surface temperature feedback to particular physical processes, this paper adopts a linear systems approach to investigate the partitioning with respect to the timescale of the feedbacks regulating global mean surface temperature in climate models. The analysis reveals that there is a dominant net negative feedback realised on an annual timescale and that this is partially attenuated by a spectrum of positive feedbacks with characteristic timescales in the range 10 to 1000 yr. This attenuation was composed of two discrete phases which are attributed to the equilibration of "diffusive – mixed layer" and "circulatory – deep ocean" ocean heat uptake. The diffusive equilibration was associated with time constants on the decadal timescale and accounted for approximately 75 to 80 percent of the overall ocean heat feedback, whilst the circulatory equilibration operated on a centennial timescale and accounted for the remaining 20 to 25 percent of the response. This suggests that the dynamics of the transient ocean heat uptake feedback first discussed by Baker and Roe (2009) tends to be dominated by loss of diffusive heat uptake in climate models, rather than circulatory deep ocean heat equilibration.

Description: Jet stream wind power as a renewable energy resource: \newline little power, big impacts Earth System Dynamics, 2, 201-212, 2011 Author(s): L. M. Miller, F. Gans, and A. Kleidon Jet streams are regions of sustained high wind speeds in the upper atmosphere and are seen by some as a substantial renewable energy resource. However, jet streams are nearly geostrophic flow, that is, they result from the balance between the pressure gradient and Coriolis force in the near absence of friction. Therefore, jet stream motion is associated with very small generation rates of kinetic energy to maintain the high wind velocities, and it is this generation rate that will ultimately limit the potential use of jet streams as a renewable energy resource. Here we estimate the maximum limit of jet stream wind power by considering extraction of kinetic energy as a term in the free energy balance of kinetic energy that describes the generation, depletion, and extraction of kinetic energy. We use this balance as the basis to quantify the maximum limit of how much kinetic energy can be extracted sustainably from the jet streams of the global atmosphere as well as the potential climatic impacts of its use. We first use a simple thought experiment of geostrophic flow to demonstrate why the high wind velocities of the jet streams are not associated with a high potential for renewable energy generation. We then use an atmospheric general circulation model to estimate that the maximum sustainable extraction from jet streams of the global atmosphere is about 7.5 TW. This estimate is about 200-times less than previous estimates and is due to the fact that the common expression for instantaneous wind power 1 2 ρ v 3 merely characterizes the transport of kinetic energy by the flow, but not the generation rate of kinetic energy. We also find that when maximum wind power is extracted from the jet streams, it results in significant climatic impacts due to a substantial increase of heat transport across the jet streams in the upper atmosphere. This results in upper atmospheric temperature differences of 〉20 °C, greater atmospheric stability, substantial reduction in synoptic activity, and substantial differences in surface climate. We conclude that jet stream wind power does not have the potential to become a significant source of renewable energy.

Description: Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast Earth System Dynamics, 2, 191-200, 2011 Author(s): C. F. Schleussner, K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Yin, and A. Levermann In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions.

Description: Entropy production of soil hydrological processes and its maximisation Earth System Dynamics, 2, 179-190, 2011 Author(s): P. Porada, A. Kleidon, and S. J. Schymanski Hydrological processes are irreversible and produce entropy. Hence, the framework of non-equilibrium thermodynamics is used here to describe them mathematically. This means flows of water are written as functions of gradients in the gravitational and chemical potential of water between two parts of the hydrological system. Such a framework facilitates a consistent thermodynamic representation of the hydrological processes in the model. Furthermore, it allows for the calculation of the entropy production associated with a flow of water, which is proportional to the product of gradient and flow. Thus, an entropy budget of the hydrological cycle at the land surface is quantified, illustrating the contribution of different processes to the overall entropy production. Moreover, the proposed Principle of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) can be applied to the model. This means, unknown parameters can be determined by setting them to values which lead to a maximisation of the entropy production in the model. The model used in this study is parametrised according to MEP and evaluated by means of several observational datasets describing terrestrial fluxes of water and carbon. The model reproduces the data with good accuracy which is a promising result with regard to the application of MEP to hydrological processes at the land surface.

Description: A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning Earth System Dynamics, 2, 161-177, 2011 Author(s): L. A. van den Berge, F. M. Selten, W. Wiegerinck, and G. S. Duane In the current multi-model ensemble approach climate model simulations are combined a posteriori. In the method of this study the models in the ensemble exchange information during simulations and learn from historical observations to combine their strengths into a best representation of the observed climate. The method is developed and tested in the context of small chaotic dynamical systems, like the Lorenz 63 system. Imperfect models are created by perturbing the standard parameter values. Three imperfect models are combined into one super-model, through the introduction of connections between the model equations. The connection coefficients are learned from data from the unperturbed model, that is regarded as the truth. The main result of this study is that after learning the super-model is a very good approximation to the truth, much better than each imperfect model separately. These illustrative examples suggest that the super-modeling approach is a promising strategy to improve weather and climate simulations.

Description: Towards understanding how surface life can affect interior geological processes: a non-equilibrium thermodynamics approach Earth System Dynamics, 2, 139-160, 2011 Author(s): J. G. Dyke, F. Gans, and A. Kleidon Life has significantly altered the Earth's atmosphere, oceans and crust. To what extent has it also affected interior geological processes? To address this question, three models of geological processes are formulated: mantle convection, continental crust uplift and erosion and oceanic crust recycling. These processes are characterised as non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems. Their states of disequilibrium are maintained by the power generated from the dissipation of energy from the interior of the Earth. Altering the thickness of continental crust via weathering and erosion affects the upper mantle temperature which leads to changes in rates of oceanic crust recycling and consequently rates of outgassing of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Estimates for the power generated by various elements in the Earth system are shown. This includes, inter alia, surface life generation of 264 TW of power, much greater than those of geological processes such as mantle convection at 12 TW. This high power results from life's ability to harvest energy directly from the sun. Life need only utilise a small fraction of the generated free chemical energy for geochemical transformations at the surface, such as affecting rates of weathering and erosion of continental rocks, in order to affect interior, geological processes. Consequently when assessing the effects of life on Earth, and potentially any planet with a significant biosphere, dynamical models may be required that better capture the coupled nature of biologically-mediated surface and interior processes.

Description: Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America Earth System Dynamics, 2, 121-138, 2011 Author(s): D. Wisser, S. Marchenko, J. Talbot, C. Treat, and S. Frolking Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth's carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result of climate warming in the 21st century. We use a geospatially explicit representation of peat areas and peat depth from a recently-compiled database and a geothermal model to estimate northern North America soil temperature responses to predicted changes in air temperature. We find that, despite a widespread decline in the areas classified as permafrost, soil temperatures in peatlands respond more slowly to increases in air temperature owing to the insulating properties of peat. We estimate that an additional 670 km 3 of peat soils in North America, containing ~33 Pg C, could be seasonally thawed by the end of the century, representing ~20 % of the total peat volume in Alaska and Canada. Warming conditions result in a lengthening of the soil thaw period by ~40 days, averaged over the model domain. These changes have potentially important implications for the carbon balance of peat soils.

Description: The energetics response to a warmer climate: relative contributions from the transient and stationary eddies Earth System Dynamics, 2, 105-120, 2011 Author(s): D. Hernández-Deckers and J.-S. von Storch We use the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) to evaluate changes in global energetic activity due to CO 2 -doubling in the coupled atmosphere-ocean ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. Globally, the energetic activity – measured as the total conversion rate of available potential energy into kinetic energy – decreases by about 4 %. This weakening results from a dual response that consists of a strengthening of the LEC in the upper-troposphere and a weakening in the lower and middle troposphere. This is fully consistent with results from a coarser resolution version of the same coupled model. We further use our experiments to investigate the individual contributions of the transient and stationary eddy components to the main energetics response. The transient eddy terms have a larger contribution to the total energetic activity than the stationary ones. We find that this is also true in terms of their 2 × CO 2 -response. Changes in the transient eddy components determine the main energetics response, whereas the stationary eddy components have very small contributions. Hence, the dual response – strengthening in the upper troposphere and weakening below – concerns mainly the transient eddy terms. We can relate qualitatively this response to the two main features of the 2 × CO 2 warming pattern: (a) the tropical upper-tropospheric warming increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient – strengthening the energetic activity above – and enhances static stability – weakening the energetic activity below; and (b) the high-latitude surface warming decreases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the lower troposphere – weakening the energetic activity below. Despite the small contribution from the stationary eddies to the main energetics response, changes in stationary eddy available potential energy ( P se ) reflect some features of the warming pattern: stronger land-sea contrasts at the subtropics and weaker land-sea contrasts at the high northern latitudes affect P se regionally, but do not affect the global energetics response.

Description: Quantifying the thermodynamic entropy budget of the land surface: is this useful? Earth System Dynamics, 2, 87-103, 2011 Author(s): N. A. Brunsell, S. J. Schymanski, and A. Kleidon As a system is moved away from a state of thermodynamic equilibrium, spatial and temporal heterogeneity is induced. A possible methodology to assess these impacts is to examine the thermodynamic entropy budget and assess the role of entropy production and transfer between the surface and the atmosphere. Here, we adopted this thermodynamic framework to examine the implications of changing vegetation fractional cover on land surface energy exchange processes using the NOAH land surface model and eddy covariance observations. Simulations that varied the relative fraction of vegetation were used to calculate the resultant entropy budget as a function of fraction of vegetation. Results showed that increasing vegetation fraction increases entropy production by the land surface while decreasing the overall entropy budget (the rate of change in entropy at the surface). This is accomplished largely via simultaneous increase in the entropy production associated with the absorption of solar radiation and a decline in the Bowen ratio (ratio of sensible to latent heat flux), which leads to increasing the entropy export associated with the latent heat flux during the daylight hours and dominated by entropy transfer associated with sensible heat and soil heat fluxes during the nighttime hours. Eddy covariance observations also show that the entropy production has a consistent sensitivity to land cover, while the overall entropy budget appears most related to the net radiation at the surface, however with a large variance. This implies that quantifying the thermodynamic entropy budget and entropy production is a useful metric for assessing biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere system interactions.

Description: Differences and implications in biogeochemistry from maximizing entropy production locally versus globally Earth System Dynamics, 2, 69-85, 2011 Author(s): J. J. Vallino In this manuscript we investigate the use of the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle for modeling biogeochemical processes that are catalyzed by living systems. Because of novelties introduced by the MEP approach, many questions need to be answered and techniques developed in the application of MEP to describe biological systems that are responsible for energy and mass transformations on a planetary scale. In previous work we introduce the importance of integrating entropy production over time to distinguish abiotic from biotic processes under transient conditions. Here we investigate the ramifications of modeling biological systems involving one or more spatial dimensions. When modeling systems over space, entropy production can be maximized either locally at each point in space asynchronously or globally over the system domain synchronously. We use a simple two-box model inspired by two-layer ocean models to illustrate the differences in local versus global entropy maximization. Synthesis and oxidation of biological structure is modeled using two autocatalytic reactions that account for changes in community kinetics using a single parameter each. Our results show that entropy production can be increased if maximized over the system domain rather than locally, which has important implications regarding how biological systems organize and supports the hypothesis for multiple levels of selection and cooperation in biology for the dissipation of free energy.