Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany
Fig 10
Examples of time points when delay distributions were subject to sudden changes.
(A) Saxony, nowcast made on 22 November 2021: overwhelmed hospitals lead to severe underreporting and thus too low nowcasts. (B) Bremen, nowcast made on 11 January 2022: some incorrect entries got removed from the records, resulting in a downward correction and thus too high nowcasts. (C) Germany, nowcast made on 19 April 2022: following the Easter weekend with lower than usual initial reporting coverage, nowcasts were considerably too low. (D) Lower Saxony, nowcasts made on 20 April: after the Easter weekend, Epiforecasts issued very wide nowcast intervals, presumably due to numerical problems. The dashed lines indicate the time when the nowcasts were made. (Incidentally, in example (A), the horizons of 0 days and 1 day back were missing, see Table A3 in S1 Appendix).