Abstract
Evaluation of competing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) theories requires one to identify separate spectral peaks in equatorial wind and sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. To sharpen this identification, we examine the seasonal-to-interannual variability of these fields by the data-adaptive method of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA). M-SSA is applied to the equatorial band (4°N-4°S), using 1950–1990 data from the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set. Two major interannual oscillations are found in the equatorial SST and surface zonal wind fields, U. The main peak is centered at about 52-months; we refer to it as the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode. Quasi-biennial (QB) variability is split between two modes, with periods near 28 months and 24 months. A faster, 15-month oscillation has smaller amplitude. The QQ mode dominates the variance and has the most distinct spectral peak. In time-longitude reconstructions of this mode, the SST has the form of a standing oscillation in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the U-field is dominated by a standing oscillation pattern in the western Pacific and exhibits also slight eastward propagation in the central and western Pacific. The locations of maximum anomalies in both QB modes are similar to those of the QQ mode. Slight westward migration in SST, across the eastern and central, and eastward propagation of U, across the western and central Pacific, are found. The significant wind anomaly covers a smaller region than for the QQ. The QQ and QB modes together represent the ENSO variability well and interfere constructively during major events. The sharper definition of the QQ spectral peak and its dominance are consistent with the “devil's staircase” interaction mechanism between the annual cycle and ENSO.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnett TP (1983) Interaction of the monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: the equatorial zone. Mon Weather Rev 111:756–773
Barnett TP (1988) Variations in near-global sea level pressure: another view. J Clim 1:225–230
Barnett TP (1991) The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system. J Clim 4:269–285
Bernardet P, Butet A, Déqué M, Ghil M, Pfeffer RL (1990) Low-frequency oscillations in a rotating annulus with topography. J Atmos Sci 47:3023–3043
Broomhead DS, King GP (1986a) Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data. Physica D 20:217–236
Broomhead DS, King GP (1986b) On the qualitative analysis of experimental dynamical systems. In: Sarkar S (ed) Nonlinear phenomena and chaos. Adam Hilger, Bristol, pp 113–144
Cane M, Zebiak SE (1985) A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science 228:1084–1087
Cane M (1986) El Niño. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 14:43–70
Cane M, Münnich M, Zebiak SE (1990) A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Part I: linear analysis. J Atmos Sci 47:1562–1577
Dettinger MD, Ghil M, Strong CM, Weibel W, Yiou P (1995) Software expedites singular-spectrum analysis of noisy time series. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Un 76:12, 14, 21
Dickey JO, Marcus SL, Hide R (1992) Global propagation of interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum. Nature 375:485–488
Ghil M, Mo K (1991) Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere and tropics. J Atmos Sci 48:752–779
Ghil M, Vautard R (1991) Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series. Nature 350:324–327
Gill AE, Rasmusson EM (1983) The 1982–1983 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature 306:229–234
Hao Z, Neelin JD, Jin FF (1993) Nonlinear tropical air-sea interaction in the fast-wave limit. J Clim 6:1523–1544
Hasselmann K (1988) PIPS and POPs: the reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interactions patterns and oscillation patterns. J Geophys Res 93:11015–11021
Horel JD (1982) The annual cycle in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Mon Weather Rev 110:1863–1878
Horel JD (1984) Complex principal component analysis: theory and examples. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:1660–1673
Jiang N, Neelin JD, Ghil M (1993) Quasi-quadrennial and quasibiennial variability in COADS equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and zonal wind. Proc 17th Clim Diagn Workshop. Climate Analysis Center, NOAA, 348–353
Jin FF, Neelin JD (1993) Modes of interannual tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction — a unified view. Part I: numerical results. J Atmos Sci 50:3477–3503
Jin FF, Neelin JD, Ghil M (1994) El Niño on the “Devil's Staircase”: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264:710–713
Keppenne C, Ghil M (1992a) Extreme weather events. Nature 358:547
Keppenne C, Ghil M (1992b) Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index. J Geophys Res 97:20449–20454
Kimoto M, Ghil M, Mo KC (1991) Spatial structure of the 40-day oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Proc 8th Conf Atmos & Oceanic Waves & Stability. American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp 115–116
Latif M, Sterl A, Maier RE, Junge MM (1993) Structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. J Clim 6:700–708
Lau KM, Shen PJ (1988) Annual cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation and Southern Oscillation in global precipitation. J Geophys Res 93:10975–10988
Lau NC, Philander SGH, Nath MJ (1992) Simulation of El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomena with a low-resolution coupled circulation model of the global ocean and atmosphere. J Clim 5:284–307
Li CF (1994) Interannual variability of Asian Summer Monsoon and its relationships with ENSO and Eurasian Snow Cover. Ph. D. Dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles
Mechoso CR, Robertson AW, Barth N, Davey MK, Delecluse P, Gent PR, Ineson S, Kirtman B, Latif M, Le Treat H, Nagai T, Neelin JD, Philander SGH, Polcher J, Shopf PS, Stockdale T, Suarez MJ, Terray L, Thual O, Tribbia JJ (1995) The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 123:2825–2838
Meehl GA (1987) The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Mon Weather Rev 115:27–50
Meehl GA (1990) Seasonal cycle forcing of El Niño/Southern Oscillation in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J Clim 3:72–98
Münnich M, Cane M, Zebiak SE (1991) A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Part 11: nonlinear cases. J Atmos Sci 48:1238–1248
Neelin JD (1991) The slow sea surface temperature mode and the fast-wave limit: analytic theory for tropical interannual oscillations and experiments in a hybrid coupled model. J Atmos Sci 48:584–606
Neelin JD, Latif M, Jin FF (1994) Dynamics of coupled ocean-atmosphere models: the tropical problem. Annu Rev Fluid Mech 26:617–659
Penland MC, Ghil M, Weickmann K (1991) Adaptive filtering and maximum entropy spectra with application to changes in atmospheric angular momentum. J Geophys Res 96:22659–22671
Philander SGH (1990) El Niño, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, San Diego
Philander SGH, Chao Y (1991) On the contrast between the seasonal cycles of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. J Phys Oceanogr 21:1399–1406
Plaut G, Vautard R (1994) Spells of oscillations and weather regimes in the low-frequency dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 51:210–236
Preisendorfer RW (1988) Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography. Mobley CD (ed) Elsevier, Amsterdam
Quinn W, Zopf D, Short K, Yang R (1978) Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and Indonesian drought. Fisheries Bull 76 (3):663–678
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1982) Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon Weather Rev 110:354–384
Rasmusson EM, Wang X, Ropelewski CF (1990) The biennial component of ENSO variability. J Mar Syst 1:71–96
Robertson A, Ma CC, Mechoso CR, Ghil M (1995a) Simulation of the tropical Pacific climate with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Part I: the seasonal cycle. J Clim 8:1178–1198
Robertson A, Ma CC, Ghil M, Mechoso CR (1995b) Simulation of the tropical Pacific climate with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Part 11: interannual variability. J Clim 8:1199–1216
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS, Wang X (1992) Observed tropospheric biennial variability in the global tropics. J Clim 5:594–614
Trenberth KE, Shin WT (1984) Quasi-biennial fluctuations in sea level pressure over the Northern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev 112:761–777
Tziperman E, Stone L, Cane M, Jarosh H (1994) El Niño chaos: overlapping of resonance between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science 264:713–715
Unal YS, Ghil M (1995) Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level. Clim Dyn 11:255–278
Vautard R, Ghil M (1989) Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics with applications to paleoclimatic time series. Physica D 35:395–424
Vautard R, Yiou P, Ghil M (1992) Singular spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Physica D 58:95–126
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, N., Neelin, J.D. & Ghil, M. Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in the equatorial Pacific. Climate Dynamics 12, 101–112 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00223723
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00223723