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Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis

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Abstract

Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change during the next century. These changes are understood with much less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale, but effects on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales. Consequently, in order to study the true impacts of climate change, regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most important sources of information for creating scenarios is the output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system. However, current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference between 2 × CO2 and 1 × CO2 GCM simulations to current climatic time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies.

In this study a technique is developed to allow the information from GCM simulations to be used, while accommodating for the deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration for three case study regions, China, Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela, for use in biological effects models. By combining the general climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed patterns of interannual climate variability, reasonable scenarios of temperature and precipitation variations can be created. Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are discussed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, 20742, College Park, MD, USA

    Alan Robock

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, 90024, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Richard P. Turco

  3. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 33149, Miami, FL, USA

    Mark A. Harwell

  4. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, 16802, University Park, PA, USA

    Thomas P. Ackerman

  5. Centro de Investigaciones Ecológicas de los Andes Tropicales (CIELAT) and Centro de Estudios Avanzados del Clima Tropical (CEACT), Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de Los Andes, C.P. 5101-A, Mérida, Venezuela

    Rigoberto Andressen

  6. Academia Sinica, Institute of Botany, Beijing, People's Republic of China

    Hsin-Shih Chang

  7. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) Sahelian Center, B.P. 12404, Niamey, Niger

    M. V. K. Sivakumar

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This is the first in the series of PAN-EARTH articles on the environmental impacts of global climate change (Harwell, 1993).

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Robock, A., Turco, R.P., Harwell, M.A. et al. Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis. Climatic Change 23, 293–335 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091621

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