Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Kröner, Igor; Ulbrich, Uwe; Cubasch, Ulrich (2017): Earth system model results by the MPI-ESM-LR of the MiKlip Decadal climate prediction experiment improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering, links to NetCDF files [dataset]. PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.874231, Supplement to: Kadow, C et al. (2017): Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000787
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Abstract:
Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two timescales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state towards the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering towards the ensemble mean.
Comment:
The NetCDF data is organized in CMOR directory structure separated in ZIP archives containing one variable at a time. Decadal experiments from 1974 to 2012 consist of 5 ensemble member each forecasting 5 years ahead. A ensemble dispersion filter is applied every 3 months on ocean temperatures.
Parameter(s):
| # | Name | Short Name | Unit | Principal Investigator | Method/Device | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | File content | Content | Kadow, Christopher | |||
| 2 | File name | File name | Kadow, Christopher | |||
| 3 | File format | File format | Kadow, Christopher | |||
| 4 | File size | File size | kByte | Kadow, Christopher | ||
| 5 | Uniform resource locator/link to file | URL file | Kadow, Christopher |
License:
Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC-BY-SA-3.0)
Size:
20 data points