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German Energiewende—different visions for a (nearly) climate neutral building sector in 2050

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Abstract

In order to contribute to the German Energiewende (energy transition) adequately, the building sector has to be almost completely decarbonised in the long term. Our analysis investigates how the German building stock can be transformed into a nearly climate-neutral state by 2050. Using a stock modelling approach based on a typology of the German residential and non-residential building sector, we develop different visions (target states) of what a nearly climate-neutral building stock could look like. All developed target states achieve the overall goal of reducing the non-renewable primary energy demand in 2050 by at least 80%. In order to span a broad target corridor, the target states differ in the two central target dimensions: efficiency (reduction in final energy demand) and energy/technology supply mix (especially the herein contained share of renewable energies). Additionally, using the energy system model REMod-D, the interactions of the building stock with the energy system as a whole are investigated. We explore the differences between a target state focussing on efficiency measures and a target state where efficiency is partly compensated for by an increased use of renewable energies. We learn that from a private cost perspective no clear recommendation can be derived as to which target state should be given priority. This means that other criteria become more relevant, such as social acceptance regarding the different measures, or the challenges that arise from rolling out additional renewable energy capacity on top of what is necessary to achieve the climate goals in other sectors.

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Notes

  1. DIN V 18599:2011, Energetische Bewertung von Gebäuden - Berechnung des Nutz-, End- und Primärenergiebedarfs für Heizung, Kühlung, Lüftung, Trinkwarmwasser und Beleuchtung (Energy efficiency of buildings – Calculation of the net, final and primary energy demand for heating, cooling, ventilation, domestic hot water and lighting); DIN 4108-6:2003-06, Wärmeschutz und Energie-Einsparung in Gebäuden - Teil 6: Berechnung des Jahresheizwärme- und des Jahresheizenergiebedarfs (Thermal protection and energy economy in buildings – Part 6: Calculation of annual heat and annual energy use); DIN EN ISO 832:2003-06: Wärmetechnisches Verhalten von Gebäuden - Berechnung des Heizenergiebedarfs – Wohngebäude (Thermal performance of buildings – Calculation of energy use – Residential buildings); DIN V 4701-10:2003-08, Energetische Bewertung heiz- und raumlufttechnischer Anlagen - Teil 10: Heizung, Trinkwassererwärmung, Lüftung (Energy efficiency of heating and ventilation systems in buildings – Part 10: Heating, domestic hot water, ventilation).

  2. If the final energy demand is calculated according to EnEV, ambient forms of energy (essentially solar thermal heat and ambient heat) which are produced in close proximity to a building are set to zero.

  3. For the analysis of the impact on the energy system, on-site PV generation is considered to contribute to the RES share of the overall electricity mix.

  4. For a detailed systematisation as well as impact analysis of such restrictions, see Jochum et al. (2012).

  5. For comparison: in Germany in 2015, electricity produced from renewable energy sources amounted to 196 TWh (BMWI 2016).

  6. An end energy reduction of 20% is relatively low compared to other studies analysing the effects of the German Energy Savings Ordinance (EnEV). In the presented study, the final energy demand in buildings is balanced following the approach of the German energy balance, in which environmental energies used in the building (directly used PV, ambient heat, solar thermal etc.) are not accounted with zero but with their actual energetic value. In contrast to that the EnEV is accounting these energies with zero and thereby the use of ambient heat, solar thermal etc. reduces the final energy demand. The ambient heat used by heat pumps in the free optimisation scenario accounts for approx. 55% of the heat delivered to the buildings. Following the EnEV approach would result in a final energy reduction of approx. 70% in this scenario.

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Funding

This work was carried out within the project “Klimaneutraler Gebäudebestand 2050“, funded by the Umweltbundesamt of Germany.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Öko-Institut e.V., Merzhauser Straße 173, 76100, Freiburg, Germany

    Veit Bürger & Tilman Hesse

  2. Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110, Freiburg, Germany

    Benjamin Köhler, Andreas Palzer & Peter Engelmann

Authors
  1. Veit Bürger
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  2. Tilman Hesse
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  3. Benjamin Köhler
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  4. Andreas Palzer
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  5. Peter Engelmann
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Correspondence to Veit Bürger.

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Bürger, V., Hesse, T., Köhler, B. et al. German Energiewende—different visions for a (nearly) climate neutral building sector in 2050. Energy Efficiency 12, 73–87 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9660-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9660-6

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