Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock
Fig 3
Predicted and observed Barents Sea cod stock.
(a) Predictions of Barents Sea cod total stock biomass (TSB) anomalies based on the Atlantic inflow across the Greenland–Scotland ridge (TSgsr) from the Nordic Seas Atlas (NSA) and the AMO index 7 years in advance. (b) Predictions based on the AMO index and Faroe–Shetland Channel salinities (Sfsc) from IROC. (c) Short-term predictions from the ICES AFWG compared with observations and the 7-year predictions from (a). ICES predictions are presented for 1–3 years, the first year indicated by the green circle. (d) Prediction error (observed minus 7-year NSA prediction) and harvest rate anomalies for Barents Sea cod. (e) Prediction of cod recruitment anomalies (REC3; number of 3-year olds) 5 years in advance. The vertical error bars in a,b,e show the 95% prediction interval (P.I), whereas the gray shading shows the spread in the predictions from the cross-validation procedure. All anomalies are relative to 1950–2012.