Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock
Fig 2
Evaluation of hydrographic predictors.
(a,b) Prediction skill for the different cross-validated multiple linear regression models used to predict the Barents Sea cod stock biomass (TSB). The different hydrographic predictors are indicated on the x-axes (see Materials and methods for definitions). The bars show the median value from the cross-validation procedure, whereas the vertical black lines show the inter-quartile range. The horizontal black dashed lines are the lagged persistence (LP) forecasts at different lags, i.e., LP7 is the 7-year lagged persistence forecast. See text for abbreviations. (c) A skill comparison between our 7-year prediction and short-term predictions provided by ICES AFWG (1–3 years, abbreviated IC1–3; green dashed lines) for the time period 1983–2017. The green shading is the inter-quartile range obtained by sub-sampling of the data (see Data and Methods).