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  • Articles  (471)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018 Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Thermodynamics of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries Zhilin Zhang and Hubert H. G. Savenije Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 241-247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-241-2018, 2018 This paper presents a new equation for the dispersion of salinity in alluvial estuaries based on the maximum power concept. The new equation is physically based and replaces previous empirical equations. It is very useful for application in practice because in contrast to previous methods it no longer requires a calibration parameter, turning the method into a predictive method. The paper presents successful applications in more than 23 estuaries in different parts of the world.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Niño Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, and Henk A. Dijkstra Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-13,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to six months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning and predicts El Niño up to one year ahead.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, 2018 We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates Marcus C. Sarofim and Michael R. Giordano Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-6,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) The 100 year GWP is the most widely used metric for comparing the climate impact of different gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. However, there have been recent arguments for the use of different timescales. This paper uses straightforward estimates of future damages to quantitatively determine the appropriate timescale as a function of how society discounts the future, and finds that the 100 year timescale is consistent with commonly used discount rates.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Tagging moisture sources with Lagrangian and inertial tracers: Application to intense atmospheric river events Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri, Jorge Eiras-Barca, and Daniel Garaboa-Paz Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-8,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) Two Lagrangian tracers tools are evaluated for studies on atmospheric moisture sources and pathways. Usual Lagrangian methods consider the initial moisture volume to remain constant and the particle follows flow path lines exactly. In a different approach, the initial volume can be considered to depend on time as it is advected by the flow, due to thermodynamic processes. Drag and buoyancy forces must be considered then.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-5,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the time scale of a few years; but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the question emerges how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean, to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase among other things. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over four years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm/day, is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger than in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – a bottom–up, science-led approach to identifying indicators Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018 The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Earth system modelling with complex dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE World-Earth modeling framework Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Marc Wiedermann, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-126,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present an open source software library for developing so-called World-Earth models that link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology, or sociology.
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