Description: We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 degrees S. Over the 1933-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 in ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice

Description: Highlights: • Arctic sea ice extent and solid freshwater in 14 CORE-II models are inter-compared. • The models better represent the variability than the mean state. • The September ice extent trend is reasonably represented by the model ensemble mean. • The descending trend of ice thickness is underestimated compared to observations. • The models underestimate the reduction in solid freshwater content in recent years. Abstract: The Arctic Ocean simulated in fourteen global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE II) is analyzed. The focus is on the Arctic sea ice extent, the solid freshwater (FW) sources and solid freshwater content (FWC). Available observations are used for model evaluation. The variability of sea ice extent and solid FW budget is more consistently reproduced than their mean state in the models. The descending trend of September sea ice extent is well simulated in terms of the model ensemble mean. Models overestimating sea ice thickness tend to underestimate the descending trend of September sea ice extent. The models underestimate the observed sea ice thinning trend by a factor of two. When averaged on decadal time scales, the variation of Arctic solid FWC is contributed by those of both sea ice production and sea ice transport, which are out of phase in time. The solid FWC decreased in the recent decades, caused mainly by the reduction in sea ice thickness. The models did not simulate the acceleration of sea ice thickness decline, leading to an underestimation of solid FWC trend after 2000. The common model behavior, including the tendency to underestimate the trend of sea ice thickness and March sea ice extent, remains to be improved.

Description: Highlights: • Inter-annual to decadal variability in AMOC from CORE-II simulations is presented. • AMOC variability shows three stages, with maximum transports in mid- to late-1990s. • North Atlantic temporal variability features are in good agreement among simulations. • Such agreements suggest variability is dictated by the atmospheric data sets. • Simulations differ in spatial structures of variability due to ocean dynamics. Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Description: Highlights: • Arctic liquid freshwater budget simulated in 14 CORE-II models is studied. • The models better represent the temporal variability than the mean state. • Multi-model mean (MMM) FW fluxes compare well with observations. • MMM FWC shows an upward trend in the recent years, with an underestimated rate. • FW flux interannual variability is more consistent where volume flux determines it. Abstract: The Arctic Ocean simulated in 14 global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE-II) is analyzed in this study. The focus is on the Arctic liquid freshwater (FW) sources and freshwater content (FWC). The models agree on the interannual variability of liquid FW transport at the gateways where the ocean volume transport determines the FW transport variability. The variation of liquid FWC is induced by both the surface FW flux (associated with sea ice production) and lateral liquid FW transport, which are in phase when averaged on decadal time scales. The liquid FWC shows an increase starting from the mid-1990s, caused by the reduction of both sea ice formation and liquid FW export, with the former being more significant in most of the models. The mean state of the FW budget is less consistently simulated than the temporal variability. The model ensemble means of liquid FW transport through the Arctic gateways compare well with observations. On average, the models have too high mean FWC, weaker upward trends of FWC in the recent decade than the observation, and low consistency in the temporal variation of FWC spatial distribution, which needs to be further explored for the purpose of model development.

Description: Highlights: • Mean circulation patterns are assessed and Kuroshio transport is underestimated. • Water mass distribution is compared and analyzed within COREII models. • Main biases of deep MLDs result from the inaccurate Kuroshio separation. • Reasonable modeled tropical dynamics but a discrepancy from the surface wind. Abstract: We evaluate the mean circulation patterns, water mass distributions, and tropical dynamics of the North and Equatorial Pacific Ocean based on a suite of global ocean-sea ice simulations driven by the CORE-II atmospheric forcing from 1963-2007. The first three moments (mean, standard deviation and skewness) of sea surface height and surface temperature variability are assessed against observations. Large discrepancies are found in the variance and skewness of sea surface height and in the skewness of sea surface temperature. Comparing with the observation, most models underestimate the Kuroshio transport in the Asian Marginal seas due to the missing influence of the unresolved western boundary current and meso-scale eddies. In terms of the Mixed Layer Depths (MLDs) in the North Pacific, the two observed maxima associated with Subtropical Mode Water and Central Mode Water formation coalesce into a large pool of deep MLDs in all participating models, but another local maximum associated with the formation of Eastern Subtropical Mode Water can be found in all models with different magnitudes. The main model bias of deep MLDs results from excessive Subtropical Mode Water formation due to inaccurate representation of the Kuroshio separation and of the associated excessively warm and salty Kuroshio water. Further water mass analysis shows that the North Pacific Intermediate Water can penetrate southward in most models, but its distribution greatly varies among models depending not only on grid resolution and vertical coordinate but also on the model dynamics. All simulations show overall similar large scale tropical current system, but with differences in the structures of the Equatorial Undercurrent. We also confirm the key role of the meridional gradient of the wind stress curl in driving the equatorial transport, leading to a generally weak North Equatorial Counter Current in all models due to inaccurate CORE-II equatorial wind fields. Most models show a larger interior transport of Pacific subtropical cells than the observation due to the overestimated transport in the Northern Hemisphere likely resulting from the deep pycnocline

Description: Three different, eddy-permitting numerical models are used to examine the seasonal variation of meridional mass and heat flux in the North Atlantic, with a focus on the transport mechanisms in the subtropics relating to observational studies near 25°N. The models, developed in the DYNAMO project, cover the same horizontal domain, with a locally isotropic grid of 1/3° resolution in longitude, and are subject to the same monthly-mean atmospheric forcing based on a three-year ECMWF climatology. The models differ in the vertical-coordinate scheme (geopotential, isopycnic, and sigma), implying differences in lateral and diapycnic mixing concepts, and implementation of bottom topography. As shown in the companion paper of Willebrand et al. (2001), the model solutions exhibit significant discrepancies in the annual-mean patterns of meridional mass and heat transport, as well as in the structure of the western boundary current system. Despite these differences in the mean properties, the seasonal anomalies of the meridional fluxes are in remarkable agreement, demonstrating a robust model behavior that is primarily dependent on the external forcing, and independent of choices of numerics and parameterization. The annual range is smaller than in previous model studies in which wind stress climatologies based on marine observations were used, both in the equatorial Atlantic (1.4 PW) and in the subtropics (0.4–0.5 PW). This is a consequence of a weaker seasonal variation in the zonal wind stresses based on the ECMWF analysis than those derived from climatologies of marine observations. The similarities in the amplitude and patterns of the meridional transport anomalies betwen the different model realizations provide support for previous model conclusions concerning the mechanism of seasonal and intraseasonal heat flux variations: they can be rationalized in terms of a time-varying Ekman transport and their predominantly barotropic compensation at depth. Analysis for 25°N indicates that the net meridional flow variation at depth is concentrated near the western boundary, but cannot be inferred from transport measurements in the western boundary current system, because of significant and complex recirculations over the western half of the basin. The model results instead suggest that the main requirement for estimating the annual cycle of heat flux through a transoceanic section, and the major source of error in model simulations, is an accurate knowledge of the wind stress variation.

Description: On interannual to decadal times scales, model simulations suggest a strong relationship between anomalies in the deep water formation rate, the strength of the subpolar gyre, and the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic. Whether this is valid, can only be confirmed by continuous, long observational time series. Several measurement components are already in place, but crucial arrays to obtain time series of the meridional volume and heat transport in the subpolar North Atlantic are still missing. Here we summarize the recent developments of the deep water formation rates and the subpolar gyre transports. We discuss how existing observational components in the subpolar North Atlantic could be supplemented to provide long-term monitoring of the meridional heat and volume transport. Through a combined analysis of observations and model results the temporal and spatial scales that had to be covered with instruments are discussed, together with the key regions with the highest variability in the velocity and temperature fields.

Description: A suite of high-resolution models of the Atlantic Ocean circulation is used to study the deep seasonal current variability in the equatorial regime, with a particular emphasis on its manifestation in the variability of the interhemispheric transports near the western boundary. The basic experiment has a resolution of 1/3∘1/3∘ horizontally and 45 vertical levels, and is subject to a monthly mean atmospheric forcing based on ECMWF flux fields. Sensitivity experiments explore the effects of higher horizontal resolution (1/12∘1/12∘), and alternative mixing parameterizations. The model behavior near the equator confirms previous suggestions based on solutions of the WOCE Community Modelling Effort (“CME”) and the “DYNAMO” model intercomparison project, of the presence of a system of vigorous seasonal current oscillations, spanning the whole water column and nearly the whole zonal extent of the basin. The patterns of the primarily zonal current anomalies are fairly robust across the range of model cases investigated, i.e., show relatively little sensitivity to horizontal resolution/mixing, or to the different choices of vertical discretization and vertical mixing as in the DYNAMO cases. The amplitude of the seasonal variation exceeds 10 cm/s in the surface layer, and decreases to about 5 cm/s near 1000 m and 2–3 cm/s in the deep ocean in both the basic 1/3∘1/3∘- and the 1/12∘1/12∘-cases, thereby leading to seasonally reversing current signatures at all depths below the EUC. A particular aspect of the seasonal current variability concerns its manifestation in the southward transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) by the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The temporal characteristics of the DWBC variability are in agreement with moored current meter observations at 44∘W44∘W, with simulated DWBC transports varying between a maximum of more than 30 Sv in January/February, and almost vanishing transport in September. However, in contrast to the annual-mean deep water transport which is confined to the DWBC and tight, O(100) km-recirculation cells, the seasonal cycle of transport is not trapped near the boundary: the simulations show that the zonal current variations of the equatorial wave guide, near the western boundary give rise to a broad system of seasonal recirculation cells of the DWBC. Calculations of the amplitude of the seasonal variability in the deep water transport near the equator are therefore strongly dependent of the spatial extent of the cross-section considered; in particular, for being approximately representative of low-frequency variations in the net, zonally-integrated meridional transport of deep water in the equatorial regime, transport sections would need to extend over nearly the whole western basin.

Description: This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms.