Anmerkung: Intro -- The Mediterranean Sea: Temporal Variability and Spatial Patterns, Geophysical Monograph 202 -- Copyright -- Contents -- Contributors -- Preface -- 1 Introduction to The Mediterranean Sea: Temporal Variability and Spatial Patterns -- References -- 2 Spatiotemporal Variability of the Surface Circulation in the Western Mediterranean: A Comparative Study Using Altimetry and Modeling -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Data and Methods -- 2.2.1. Data -- 2.2.2. Methods -- 2.3. Results -- 2.3.1. Mean Surface Circulation -- 2.3.2. Eddy Kinetic Energy -- 2.3.3. Surface Circulation Variability Using EOFs -- 2.4. Summary and Discussion -- References -- 3 Exchange Flow through the Strait of Gibraltar as Simulated by a σ-Coordinate Hydrostatic Model and a z-Coordinate Nonhydrostatic Model -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Models Description and Initialization -- 3.2.1. POM -- 3.2.2. MITgcm -- 3.3. Models Validation -- 3.4. Results -- 3.4.1. Internal Bore Evolution -- 3.4.2. Three-layer definition and properties -- 3.4.3. Hydraulics -- 3.4.4. Sensitivity Experiments -- 3.5. Discussion and Conclusion -- References -- 4 Mixing in the Deep Waters of the Western Mediterranean -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Evolution of the Deep Waters -- 4.3. Mixing Estimates -- 4.4. Mixing Processes -- 4.5. Discussion -- References -- 5 The 2009 Surface and Intermediate Circulation of the Tyrrhenian Sea as Assessed by an Operational Model -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. Model Description -- 5.2.1. The Numerical Model -- 5.2.2. Boundary Conditions and Hindcast Procedure -- 5.3. The Seasonal Variability of the Circulation During 2009 -- 5.3.1. The Surface Circulation -- 5.3.2. The Intermediate Circulation -- 5.4. Water Masses and Transports -- 5.5. Summary -- Appendix -- References -- 6 The Eastern Mediterranean Transient: Evidence for Similar Events Previously? -- 6.1. Introduction. , 6.2. Lessons from the Actual EMT -- 6.3. Historic T-S Signatures in Comparison with Potential Effects of EMT-Type Events -- 6.4. Discussion and Conclusion -- References -- 7 Deep-Water Variability and Interbasin Interactions in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. Methodology -- 7.3. Basinwide and Interbasin Variability -- 7.4. Intrabasin Variability -- 7.5. Simple Statistics -- 7.6. Discussion and Conclusions -- References -- 8 An Internal Mechanism Driving the Alternation of the Eastern Mediterranean Dense/Deep Water Sources -- 8.1. Introduction -- 8.2. Datasets and Model Description -- 8.2.1. Data Series -- 8.2.2. Model Description -- 8.2.3. Atmospheric Forcing -- 8.2.4. River Discharge Data -- 8.2.5. Boundary Conditions -- 8.2.6. Model Run -- 8.3. Results and Discussion -- 8.3.1. Evolution of the Hydrological Characteristics -- 8.3.2. Evolution of the Atmospheric Forcing -- 8.3.3. Salinity Lateral Redistribution -- 8.3.4. The Role of Lateral Advection -- 8.3.5. Flows through Straits-Salinity and Heat -- 8.4. Summary and Conclusions -- References -- 9 Thermohaline Variability and Mesoscale Dynamics Observed at the Deep-Ocean Observatory E2M3A in the Southern Adriatic Sea -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.2. Datasets and Methods -- 9.3. Results -- 9.3.1. Thermohaline Variability in the Southern Adriatic between 2006 and 2010 -- 9.3.2. Heat and Salt Content Changes -- 9.3.3. Dense Water Formation Episodes Observed at the E2M3A Site -- 9.3.4. On the Relationship between Thermodynamic Forcing and Current Excitation: Identification of Eddylike Patterns -- 9.4. Conclusions -- References -- Index -- Supplemental Images.

Anmerkung: Cover -- Abridged Contents -- Contents -- Preface -- The Mediterranean Climate: An Overview of the Main Characteristics and Issues -- The Mediterranean Region: Climate and Characteristics -- Regional Processes and Links to the Global Climate -- Climate Trends and Change at Regional Scale -- Socio-environmental Aspects -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Mediterranean Climate Variability over the Last Centuries: A Review -- Introduction -- Past Regional Mediterranean Climate Evidence and Extremes -- Evidence from Early Instrumental and Documentary Data -- Iberian Peninsula -- France -- Italy -- Southern Balkans, Greece and Eastern Mediterranean -- Northern Africa -- Ship Logbooks as a New Documentary Proxy for Past Mediterranean Climate -- Evidence from Natural Proxies -- Tree-Ring Information from the Iberian Peninsula and Italy -- Tree-Ring Information from South Eastern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean -- Tree-Ring Information from Northern Africa -- Speleothems -- Corals -- Evidence from Lower Resolution Natural Proxies and New Marine Archives -- Subsurface temperature information in the Mediterranean from borehole data -- Mediterranean sea temperatures and sea-water chemistry derived from Vermetids, non--tropical, and deep-sea corals -- Large-Scale Climate Reconstructions and Importance of Proxy Data for the Mediterranean -- Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation Variability over the Last 500 Years -- Connection between the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries -- Major Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Mediterranean Winter Climate Anomalies -- Mediterranean Climate Variability since the Mid-Seventeenth Century in Terms of Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics. , Running Correlation Analysis between the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries -- Teleconnection Studies with Other Parts of the Northern Hemisphere -- Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation Reconstructions in Comparison with the ECHO-G and HadCM3 Coupled Models -- Past Climate Variability and its Relations to Volcanism, Solar Activity and GHG Concentrations: Reconstructions and Models -- Conclusions -- Outlook -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Relations between Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region and the Tropics: ENSO, South Asian and African Monsoons, Hurricanes and Saharan Dust -- Introduction -- ENSO Impact on the Mediterranean Climate -- ENSO and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Rainfall -- ENSO and the Western Mediterranean Relationship -- ENSO and Extreme Mediterranean Rainfall -- Transient and Stationary Waves Approach -- Possible Coupling Mechanism of ENSO and the Mediterranean -- South Asian Monsoon Variability and the Mediterranean Climate -- Mediterranean Climate and South Asian Rainfall -- African Monsoon Impact on the Climate of the Mediterranean -- Tropical Cyclones' Impact on the Mediterranean Climate -- Tropical Intrusions into the Mediterranean Basin -- Mediterranean Dust Transport from Sahara -- Conclusions and Outlook -- Future Research on ENSO Impact on Mediterranean Climate -- Future Research on South Asian Monsoon Variability and the Mediterranean Climate -- Future Research on African Monsoon Impacts on the Climate of the Mediterranean -- Future Research on Tropical Intrusions into the Mediterranean Basin -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Relations between Variability in the Mediterranean Region and Mid-Latitude Variability -- Introduction -- Mid-Latitude Modes of Atmospheric Variability and their Impact -- The North Atlantic Oscillation Pattern. , The Eastern Atlantic and Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia Patterns -- The Scandinavian and Blocking Patterns -- Other Modes -- Temperature Variability -- Precipitation Variability -- Trends -- Temperature Trends -- Precipitation Trends -- Contributing Factors for Observed Temperature and Precipitation™Trends -- Other Important Forcing Factors -- Tropical and Extratropical SST -- Solar Variability -- Future Outlook -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Changes in the Oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea and their Link to Climate Variability -- Introduction -- The Forcing of the Mediterranean Sea -- Air& -- ndash -- Sea Interaction -- River Outflow -- Exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar -- The Exchange with the Black Sea -- The Mediterranean Overturning Circulation -- The Modification of the Atlantic Inflow -- Intermediate Water Formation -- Deep Water Formation in the Eastern Mediterranean -- Deep Water Formation in the Western Mediterranean -- Climatic Changes in the Mediterranean Sea Circulation -- Multidecadal Trends in Water Mass Characteristics -- Rapid Changes: The Eastern Mediterranean Transient -- What Caused the EMT? -- mk4004sec16sec16 -- Where did the Deep Water Formation Take Place? -- How Much Deep Water was Produced by the EMT? -- Why did the EMT Happen? -- The Impact of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variability on the Mediterranean Sea -- Sea Level Changes in the Mediterranean Sea -- Extreme Sea Levels -- Changes in the Wind-wave Field -- Outlook and Future Challenges -- Acknowledgements -- References -- The Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea as Connected Systems -- Introduction -- Mediterranean Outflow vs. Mediterranean Internal Variability -- Description of Numerical Model -- Zonal and Meridional Cells -- Mean State and Variability -- Timescales of Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation -- Decadal Oscillations in the Mediterranean Sea. , The Strait of Gibraltar: A Gate to the Atlantic -- Spreading of Mediterranean Outflow Water in the North Atlantic -- Dynamics of Mediterranean Outflow Water -- mk4005sec11asec11a -- Meddies -- Mediterranean Undercurrent -- Mediterranean Outflow Water and Stability and Variability of™Meridional Overturning Circulation -- Modelling of Mediterranean Outflow Water -- mk4005sec15asec15a -- Simplified Models -- General Circulation Model Studies -- Discussion and Future Challenges -- References -- Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region: Climatology and Effects on the Environment -- Introduction -- & -- ldquo -- Historical& -- rdquo -- Notes -- Mediterranean Cyclones: Data, Methods and Dynamics -- Dynamics of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region -- Available Sets of Data -- Methodology -- Climatology of Cyclones in the Mediterranean -- Characteristics, Sub-Areas of Cyclogenesis, Seasonality and™Generation™Mechanisms -- The Role of Large-Scale Climate Patterns on the Mediterranean™Cyclones -- Trends -- Weather Patterns and Mediterranean Environment -- Precipitation -- Strong Winds -- Storm Surge -- Wind Waves -- Landslides -- Conclusions -- Outlook -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Regional Atmospheric, Marine Processes and Climate Modelling -- Introduction -- Teleconnection Patterns from the Mediterranean Region -- Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation and its Sensitivity to Atmospheric Forcing -- Sensitivity of the Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation to Anthropogenic Global Warming -- Current Status of Mediterranean Regional Climate Modelling -- Atmosphere-Sea Coupled Modelling -- Perspectives and Outlooks -- High-Resolution Mediterranean Climate Modelling Systems -- Development and Validation of Integrated Regional Modelling Systems -- Acknowledgements -- References -- The Mediterranean Climate Change under Global Warming -- Introduction. , Global-Coupled Climate Models -- Regional Climate Scenarios -- Statistical Downscaling -- RCM Simulations -- AGCM Simulations with Variable Resolution -- Impacts on Land Surface and Vegetation -- Future Research -- References -- Subject Index.

Anmerkung: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Series Editor's introduction -- Ministers' page: Towards forecasting a changing ocean: An African Perspective -- Sponsorship page -- Foreword -- List of contributors -- PART I: BY WAY OF INTRODUCTION -- Chapter 1. A plan comes together -- UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT -- TEN YEARS OF CLOSE REGIONAL COLLABORATION -- OBSERVING AND PREDICTING IN THE BCLME WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT -- FAST-TRACKING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL OBSERVING SYSTEM AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY -- ABOUT THIS BOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 2. Forecasting within the context of Large Marine Ecosystem Programs -- LME DEFINITION: DELINEATION AND MAJOR STRESSORS -- LME INDICATOR MODULES -- APPLICATION OF INDICATOR MODULES TO LME MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (GEF) -- SCIENCE-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF LME BIOMASS YIELDS -- RECOVERING FISHERIES BIOMASS -- LME MODELING AND DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGE -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 3. The Global Ocean Observing System for Africa (GOOS Africa): Monitoring and Predicting in Large Marine Ecosystems -- INTRODUCTION -- THE LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM (LME) CONCEPT AND STRATEGY -- THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM IN AFRICA (GOOS-AFRICA) -- GOOS-AFRICA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS -- THE AFRICAN LMES ARE CORE AND VITAL STRATEGIC PARTNERS FOR GOOS-AFRICA -- GOOS-AFRICA CONTRIBUTION TO INTEGRATED MONITORING AND PREDICTING OF LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUDING REMARKS: SUCCESS STORIES -- GOOS-AFRICA FORWARD LOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART II: SETTING THE SCENE -- Chapter 4. Large scale physical variability of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) -- INTRODUCTION -- MAJOR PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF THE BCLME -- LARGE SCALE MODES OF VARIABILITY -- WATER MASSES AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE BCLME. , NUMERICAL OCEAN MODELLING IN THE BCLME -- SCHEMATIC CIRCULATION DEDUCED FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL -- NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 5. Low oxygen water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: Key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting -- INTRODUCTION -- SYNTHESIS OF SYSTEM PROCESSES AND VARIABILITY -- REMOTE FORCING: EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC (ETSA - BENGUELA LINKAGE) -- BENGUELA SHELF VARIABILITY -- PROCESSES REQUIRING DIAGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT -- PROCESSES WITH FORECASTING POTENTIAL -- WHAT ARE THE GAPS? -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 7. The variability and potential for prediction of harmful algal blooms in the southern Benguela ecosystem -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- THE SPATIAL [GEOGRAPHIC] DISTRIBUTION OF HABS -- SEASONAL INCIDENCE OF HABS -- THE TIMING OF HABS: ACROSS-SHELF AND ALONGSHORE TRANSPORT -- CONCLUSION: THE POTENTIAL FOR PREDICTION -- Chapter 8. Resource and ecosystem variability, including regime shifts, in the Benguela Current system -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- RESOURCE VARIABILITY -- ECOSYSTEM VARIABILITY -- PREDICTING VARIABILITY -- MAKING PREDICTIONS -- A WAY FORWARD -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 6. Variability of plankton with reference to fish variability in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem - An overview -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- EVENT-SCALE VARIABILITY -- SEASONAL CHANGES -- INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL CHANGES -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 9. Modelling, forecasting and scenarios in comparable upwelling ecosystems --California, Canary, Humboldt -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICS -- ECOLOGY -- TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER GENERAL THOUGHTS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART III: HOPES, DREAMS AND REALITY. , Chapter 10. Influences of large scale climate modes and Agulhas system variability on the BCLME region -- INTRODUCTION -- ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY OF THE BCLME REGION -- BENGUELA NIÑOS AND SST VARIABILITY IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN -- INFLUENCE OF VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN AGULHAS SYSTEM ON THE BCLME REGION -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 11. Developing a basis for detecting and predicting long-term ecosystem changes -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- ECOSYSTEM CHANGES TO BE MONITORED -- APPROPRIATE ECOSYSTEM INDICATORS AND MODELS -- DESIRED END PRODUCTS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS -- SCHEDULE FOR IMPLEMENTATION -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 12. The requirements for forecasting harmful algal blooms in the Benguela -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICAL-BIOLOGICAL COUPLINGS UNDERLYING HABS -- IDENTIFICATION OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IMPORTANT TO BLOOM CONCENTRATION AND TRANSPORT -- REAL-TIME OBSERVATION OF HABS -- NUMERICAL MODELLING AND PREDICTION OF HAB DYNAMICS -- CONCLUSIONS -- Chapter 13. Low oxygen water (LOW) forcing scales amenable to forecasting in the Benguela ecosystem -- INTRODUCTION -- SCALES OF LOW VARIABILITY AMENABLE TO FORECASTING -- REMOTE EQUATORIAL FORCING: 2 MONTH FORECASTING SCALE -- SHELF SCALE FORCING: 7 DAY FORECASTING SCALE -- IMPORTANCE OF COUPLED MECHANISMS -- OBSERVATIONAL PROGRAMME -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 14. Forecasting shelf processes of relevance to living marine resources in the BCLME -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- LOW OXYGEN WATER EVENTS -- MESOSCALE PROCESSES -- BOUNDARY PROCESSES -- OTHER SHELF PROCESSES -- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 15. Environmental data requirements of maritime operations in the Benguela coastal ocean -- INTRODUCTION -- OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION NEEDS -- DIAMOND MINING -- SHIPPING -- PORTS. , FISHING -- SOVEREIGNTY AND RESOURCE PROTECTION -- MARITIME FORECASTING IN SUPPORT OF RISK MANAGEMENT -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART IV: THE WAY AHEAD -- Chapter 16. Towards a future integrated forecast system -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES FOR THE BCLME -- SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS FOR THE CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Chapter 17. Forecasting a large marine ecosystem -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- MODELLING PRACTICE IN THE 21ST CENTURY -- SHORT-TERM LME FORECASTING -- MEDIUM-TERM LME FORECASTING -- LONG-TERM LME FORECASTING -- WHAT-IF? PREDICTION -- A VISION OF THE FUTURE -- Index -- Large Marine Ecosystems Series.